Monday, December 16, 2013

Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM)

Archer Daniels Midland Company manufactures and sells protein meal, vegetable oil, corn sweeteners, flour, biodiesel, ethanol, and other value-added food and feed ingredients; and processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company’s Oilseeds Processing segment originates, merchandises, crushes, and processes oilseeds, such as soybeans and soft seeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. Its products include oilseeds products; crude vegetable and salad oils; margarine, shortening, and other food products; partially refined oils; oilseed protein meals; cottonseed flour; and cotton cellulose pulp. Its Corn Processing segment converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bio products. The company’s Agricultural Services segment engages in buying, storing, cleaning, and transporting agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice, and barley; and reselling those commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients.
To review Archer’s stock, please take a look at the 10-month chart of ADM (Archer Daniels Midland Company) below with my added notations:
10-month chart of ADM (Archer Daniels Midland Company)
Archer’s stock had been trading sideways for the last several weeks. Over that period of time, ADM had formed a clear resistance level at $42 (blue). In addition, the stock also created a strong level of support at $40 (green). That rectangle formation on ADM is very helpful in trading it because at some point the stock would have to break one of the two levels the pattern has created. Yesterday the stock finally broke the $42 level and should be moving higher from here.

The Tale of the Tape: ADM recently broke out of its rectangle pattern. A pullback to $42 would provide an opportunity to get long on the stock. However, a break back below $42 would negate the forecast for a move higher.
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Top 10 Predictions for 2014

After wallowing in an economic “soft patch” for the past two years, the global economy is likely to emerge in 2014 with modest growth of 3.3 percent compared with 2.5 percent this year, according to a forecast from Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS (NYSE:IHS), the global leader in information and analytics.

“The easing of the twin headwinds of private sector de-leveraging and public sector austerity will bolster the improved outlook, especially for the developed economies,” Behravesh says. “Many emerging economies will also likely enjoy stronger growth in 2014, pulled along by export-led growth to the United States, Europe and China. That said, the global growth rebound is likely to be quite modest.”

The global growth outlook for 2014 is the summary forecast in Behravesh’s annual Top10 Economic Predictions, which were released today.  (more)

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Trulia (NYSE: TRLA): Bullish Reversal Signals 'Buy'

September was the month when many social media high-fliers topped out. Real estate community stock Trulia (NYSE: TRLA) was in the thick of things, running from roughly $15 at the start of the broad market's rally in November 2012 to a high of $52.71 in September of this year for a gain of more than 250%. Not too shabby.

When the pack turned, TRLA dropped like a stone, getting cut almost in half only three months later. However, such a steep drop breeds opportunity for short-term traders. And with many signs of capitulation, Trulia may have a nice bounce in the offing.

Capitulation is when the final bulls throw in the towel as they dump whatever they have at any price. We typically see a large range day to the downside after a long decline with exceptionally heavy volume. Sentiment drops to bearish extremes as everyone who was left to sell theoretically has already done so.  (more)

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What’s Next For The Economy, And How To Survive It

from Financial Survival Network
We talked at length with Rob Hanus on what the upcoming trends are for the world economy, the US economy and what you need to be doing to survive them. You already know that employment is still trending down, the government’s power and control over the economy and your life is rapidly expanding and things could get out of hand very quickly. Rob understands basic survival and has been prepping for many years. Economic prepping is definitely part of the equation as well. The clock is ticking, it’s time to get ready. Get prepared. And by the way, switchblade knives are legal in many states, even New York (for hunting, fishing and trapping).
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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What Does the Baltic Dry Index Indicate For the Global Economy?

The Baltic Dry Index is often looked at as a leading indicator of the global economy as higher shipping rates indicateeconomy-2h-8 stronger demand for shipping and healthier global trade. Year to date, the index is up 234% and is now at its highest level in more than three years. This would indicate that the global economy is picking up steam.

The chart below shows historical readings in the Baltic Dry Index going back to 2007.  While the index is still well off its highs from 2007 and 2008, 2013 has been a great year for shipping rates.

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
8:30 am Empire state index Dec.
5.0 -2.2
8:30 am Productivity revision Q3   2.9% 1.9%
9:15 am Industrial production Nov.   0.6% -0.1%
9:15 am Capacity utilization Nov.   78.5% 78.1%
8:30 am Consumer price index Nov.   0.1% -0.1%
8:30 am Core CPI Nov.   0.1% 0.1%
8:30 am Current account Q3   -- -$99 bln
10 am Home builders' index Dec.   56 54
8:30 am Housing starts Nov.   960,000 891,000 (Aug)
8:30 am Building permits Nov.   995,000 1.04 mln
2 pm FOMC statement     $85 bln $85 bln
2:30 am Bernanke press conference        
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 12/14
338,000 368,000
10 am Existing home sales Nov.   5.00 mln 5.12 mln
10 am Philly Fed Dec.   10.0 6.5
10 am Leading indicators Nov.   -- 0.2%
8:30 am GDP revision Q3   3.7% 3.6%
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