Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Margin Debt/GDP Off The Charts = Stock Market Crash Coming? Mike Maloney

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“Peak Gold Production” Hits In 2015 / by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2014 16:31
Several days ago we reported that as a result of persistently lower gold prices, driven down by a seemingly endless supply of paper gold (in the form of ETF selling and Bank of International Settlement “price discovery“) offsetting a seemingly unbridled appetite for physical gold, not only is one of the biggest marginal suppliers of gold – Chinese producers – about to take an extended hiatus, but first one and then many “developed” gold miners are about to throw in the towel.
As UBS’ Shanghai analyst Lin Haoxiang said, “Falling prices are cutting into some high-cost private mines in China, while some big miners chose to reduce costs by reducing jobs and capital investments.” As for the North American gold miner defaults, they have already started with Canada’s San Gold warning its creditors it is about to stuff them with a lot of unrepayable paper.
However the unwind plays out, it is becoming increasingly clear that just as the crude oil market is set for some violent times ahead as producers lock into the defection phase of the Prisoner’s Dilemma and flood the market with supply in an attempt to crush the weakest competition, so the gold market is set for many upheavals, the first of which, however, may be what Goldcorp defined in a recent slideshow as Peak Gold.
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Energen Corporation (NYSE: EGN)

Energen Corporation is engaged in the development and exploration of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the continental United States. As of August 28, 2014, the company had approximately 775 million barrels of oil-equivalent proved, probable, and possible reserves, as well as 2.5 billion barrels of oil-equivalent contingent resources. Energen Corporation was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Energen (NYSE: EGN) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Energen (NYSE: EGN)
EGN has been in a persistent downtrend since June. During the most recent 4 months the stock has formed an important trend line of resistance (black). Always remember, any (2) points can start a trend line, but it�s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its importance. So, EGN obviously has an important trendline of resistance, which currently sits near $66.

The Tale of the Tape: EGN is currently stuck under a down trending resistance. A break above that resistance should mean higher prices, thus a long trade could be made. Short traders might look to enter a trade at the resistance with an expectation of a fall back down to the $55 support (blue).
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Collateral Damage: US Renewables, Shale Fall Victims to Slumping Oil

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Saudi Facing Largest Deficit In Its History / by Andy Tully via / 12/30/2014 11:49
The nearly 50 percent plunge in the price of oil during the past six months is expected to leave oil-rich Saudi Arabia with its first budget deficit since 2011 and the largest in its history.
The budget, announced on Dec. 25, will include spending during fiscal 2015 of $229.3 billion, higher than in 2014, despite revenues estimated at only $190.7 billion, lower than in the current fiscal year. That would leave a deficit of $38.6 billion.
Oil prices have been dropping since June because of a market glut, caused in part because of prodigious oil extraction in the United States from shale formations.
As a result of this glut, OPEC was urged to cut production levels at its Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna in an effort to shore up prices, but wealthy members of the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to keep production at its nearly two-year-old level of 30 million barrels a day.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has since explained that the OPEC strategy was to reclaim market share. Fracking has made the United States, once the cartel’s largest customer, nearly self-sufficient in oil. But fracking is expensive, and many believe it can’t be profitable if the price of oil falls much below its current level of around $60 per barrel.
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