Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Oil, gold crash spell end of commodity ‘supercycle'

We are likely witnessing the painful, undignified death of the commodity investment “supercycle.”
Oil prices cracked below $70 per barrel after OPEC declined to cut production. Gold sank toward $1150 an ounce after a Swiss vote to compel more central bank gold buying failed and gold holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) shrank to a six-year low. Copper sagged beneath $3 per ounce on tepid China manufacturing activity.
As I discuss with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Aaron Task in the attached video, this collectively represents a global phenomenon of not enough dollars chasing too much “stuff” – an inversion of the classic (and flawed) monetarist definition of inflation. (more)

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This Week in Money with Guests: Ross Clark, Marin Katusa

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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLDX)

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and commercialization of novel therapeutics for human health care primarily in the United States. Its lead drug candidates include rindopepimut (CDX-110), a targeted immunotherapeutic in a pivotal Phase III study for the treatment of front-line glioblastoma and a Phase II study for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma; and Glembatumumab vedotin (CDX-011) is a targeted antibody-drug conjugate in a randomized study for the treatment of triple negative breast cancer.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Celldex (Nasdaq: CLDX) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Celldex (Nasdaq: CLDX)
After sliding lower from February into May, CLDX finally found it’s footing and started a sideways move. Over that time the stock has hit a key resistance level at around $18 (blue) multiple times. Two weeks ago CLDX finally broke out above that important $18 level and now appears to be pulling back to it.

The Tale of the Tape: CLDX had a key level of resistance at $18 that should now act as support on any pullbacks. A long trade could be entered on a pullback to $18 with a stop placed below that level. A break back below $18 could negate the forecast for a move higher.
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Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?…

There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months.  The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months.  Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher.  When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.  It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets.  As you will read about below, energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market.  And a junk bond implosion is usually a signal that a major stock market crash is on the way.  So if you are looking for a “canary in the coal mine”, keep your eye on the performance of energy junk bonds.  If they begin to collapse, that is a sign that all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street.

It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy.  Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet.  (more)

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8 Predictions for 2015

It hit me last Friday as I was having a meeting with one of my Angel Publishing colleagues, Keith Kohl of the Energy Investor newsletter: It's holiday time.
Maybe it was the warm autumn we had here in Baltimore. Maybe it's because both my kids are teenagers and don't write letters to Santa Claus anymore. Whatever it was, I was barely aware we were nearing the most wonderful time of the year.
Now, I'm in full holiday mode.
In order to beat the East Coast snowstorm, my kids and I made the drive last night to my brother's in Warwick, New York for Thanksgiving. My dad and stepmom arrived yesterday. It’s already snowing, and we may get a foot of the white stuff. (more)

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