After its notable rally off the late June lows, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
began to top out in the second half of September. After trading
sideways to slightly lower for a couple of weeks, the stock gapped down
5.6% on the morning of Sept. 11, the day after it announced of a fresh
batch of iPhones.
Last week, however, AAPL found support near its
100-day simple moving average and the 50% retracement level of the
entire June-to-August rally. The odds now favor a resumption of its
uptrend. Furthermore, with the company's next earnings announcement
scheduled for Oct. 24, traders have a few weeks to potentially play the
stock from the long side without any news to shake things up.
Personally,
I have found great success swing trading AAPL, as it seems to respect
technical patterns particularly well in two-to-three-week time frames.
Additionally, given the strong emotional attachment many investors have
to their positions, the stock often displays basic trend breaks and candlestick signals that offer great trade setups. (more)
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Friday, September 27, 2013
McAlvany weekly Commentary
Funny Money Redefines Reality…Temporarily
Posted on 25 September 2013.
About this week’s show:
- Non-Taper (as expected)
- Modern art is valued in terms of modern money
- Gold is simply cash
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Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG)
Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, engages in the
provision of various merchandise products in the United States. The
company offers various consumable products, including paper and cleaning
products, such as paper towels, bath tissue, paper dinnerware, trash
and storage bags, laundry, and other home cleaning supplies; packaged
food, comprising cereals, canned soups and vegetables, condiments,
spices, sugar, and flour; perishables consisting of milk, eggs, bread,
frozen meals, beer, and wine; snacks that include candies, cookies,
crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages. It also provides
seasonal products, including decorations, toys, batteries, small
electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories,
gardening supplies, hardware, automotive, and home office supplies; and
home products comprising kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances,
light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and
kitchen, bed, and bath soft goods. In addition, the company offers
casual everyday apparel for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women, and
men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes, and
accessories.
To review Dollar's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of DG (Dollar General Corporation) below with my added notations:
While consolidating in July and August, DG formed a solid resistance at $56 (red). That previous resistance was a 52-week high breakout when the stock broke up through it in the beginning of September and now it should act as support if the stock were to pull back down to it. In addition, the stock has been climbing a long trendline of support (blue) since February. If DG were to fall below $56, that trendline should be the next major level of support.
The Tale of the Tape: DG has a potential $56 level of support and uptrend line to watch. A long trade could be made on a pullback down to $56. A break below that level would bring the up trending support into focus for the next long trade.
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To review Dollar's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of DG (Dollar General Corporation) below with my added notations:
While consolidating in July and August, DG formed a solid resistance at $56 (red). That previous resistance was a 52-week high breakout when the stock broke up through it in the beginning of September and now it should act as support if the stock were to pull back down to it. In addition, the stock has been climbing a long trendline of support (blue) since February. If DG were to fall below $56, that trendline should be the next major level of support.
The Tale of the Tape: DG has a potential $56 level of support and uptrend line to watch. A long trade could be made on a pullback down to $56. A break below that level would bring the up trending support into focus for the next long trade.
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Head and Shoulders Price Pattern in JP Morgan Stock: JPM
There seems to be a lot of commotion these days over this head and
shoulders top in one of the most important companies in America. JP
Morgan has been putting in what most technicians would consider a pretty
text book topping pattern since early May. Now, whether or not $JPM breaks the neckline and confirms is still unknown, but the potential is certainly there.
This is a daily bar chart of JP Morgan Chase & Co going back to the Spring. The left shoulder was put in towards the end of May, the head in July and most recently a really weak right shoulder in September. What stands out to me here is how short lived the most recent rally was. Take note of how much lower the September peak is (right shoulder) when compared to the May highs (left shoulder). This is further evidence that the buyers are just tired: (more)
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This is a daily bar chart of JP Morgan Chase & Co going back to the Spring. The left shoulder was put in towards the end of May, the head in July and most recently a really weak right shoulder in September. What stands out to me here is how short lived the most recent rally was. Take note of how much lower the September peak is (right shoulder) when compared to the May highs (left shoulder). This is further evidence that the buyers are just tired: (more)
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Forget Twitter, Buy These Social Media ETFs Instead
Last week, social media heavyweight, Twitter, announced that it will file for a stock market IPO.
Needless to say, the Internet lit up with the news. And like clockwork, the hype machine started cranking.
If you’re cynical, you’re not alone. Anyone remember Facebook (Nasdaq: FB)?
When the stock went public on May 18, 2012, it opened at $42.05. Giddy investors who piled in then saw shares slump to under $20 just three months later.
Only in the past couple of weeks has the stock returned to its IPO level. (more)
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Needless to say, the Internet lit up with the news. And like clockwork, the hype machine started cranking.
If you’re cynical, you’re not alone. Anyone remember Facebook (Nasdaq: FB)?
When the stock went public on May 18, 2012, it opened at $42.05. Giddy investors who piled in then saw shares slump to under $20 just three months later.
Only in the past couple of weeks has the stock returned to its IPO level. (more)
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