Saturday, October 11, 2014

David Gurwitz & Chris Waltzek on GoldSeek Radio – October 9, 2014

by Chris Waltzek
GoldSeek Radio

Nenner Research expects $2,500 gold, the same outfit that called on CNBC the stock market peak of 2008 and the zenith in crude oil at $147 before the infamous $100 plunge; warned their hedge fund clients that Lehman Brothers was a sell, all the way down to $5 per share – as well as the Fed Funds rate drop from 6% to 0%. Charles Nenner and David Gurwitz use advanced mathematical models / algorithms to identify profitable patterns in the market, such as the Fibonacci ratio, the Golden Mean (Phi: 1.618). Their cycle models indicate that the precious metals sector is nearing an important bottom, as soon as next week. Gold investors are poised to benefit under inflation or deflation, either scenario presents a win / win opportunity. Crude oil should soon find a floor and rally sharply to $120 per barrel (WTIC) and they are buying silver. However, the host agrees with David Gurwitz that natural gas has a destiny with $2.50 per futures contract.
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King Dollar Has Not Been Dethroned Just Yet

by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan Norcini

Trying to get a read on these markets during the times that the Fed is either announcing policy changes or releasing minutes can be incredibly difficult. The sheer ferocity of the moves in price can confound even the most astute and dedicated chart watchers.
It would appear at this point ( don’t hold your breath however as who knows what will happen in the next hour much less the next day in these markets anymore) that the Dollar found eager buyers at the key breakout level near 85.00 on the USDX chart.
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Arch Crawford – Blood Moon Means Trouble For World Markets

Arch Crawford joined us today for a look at the stars and their impact upon world events and markets. This morning was the latest Blood Moon, which bodes ill for mankind and world markets. There’s still several more left before the last next fall. What are the stars and planets trying to tell us? According to Arch, be ready for more turmoil and civil unrest. It’s all ready taking place and it’s bound to get worse. Arch isn’t to optimistic about gold and silver in the short term, until they start making higher highs. However, everyone should own an “insurance policy” against economic chaos. There’s a lot more coming up in the months ahead, so be prepared.
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What Is The Gold/Silver Ratio Telling Us About Metals?

Here’s a ratio we haven’t brought up in some time. I’ve been more focused on showing you guys the key support and resistance levels in Gold and Silver because that was the easier trade. It was inevitable that these metals broke down. Metals are in a terrible bear market, and regardless of what all your favorite gold bugs have to say, price pays and the trend is down. This increased the likelihood of the break of support we saw recently in Silver and, in my opinion, the upcoming break in Gold.
Today we’re looking at the Gold vs Silver ratio breaking out to new multi-year highs over the last couple of weeks. This was a big breakout since we had key resistance from the highs in July last year and May of this year. These two particular tops were actually temporary pivot lows for both Gold and Silver:
10-8-14 gold silver ratio daily
When this ratio is declining, we are seeing real risk-appetite in the precious metals space. The August decline last year in this ratio led to a 30% rally in Silver and 12% rally in Gold in in less than a month. The sell-off in June in the ratio led to a 15.5% rally in Silver and an 8.5% rally in Gold over the next month. But now we’ve officially broken out above these highs as Silver broke support and Gold to me looks just as vulnerable.
This outperformance in Gold over Silver signals to me that there is a lack of risk-appetite out there in precious metals. This is a similar situation to the underperformance in the small-cap US stocks since March warning us of a lack or risk-appetite in US Stocks. We are beginning to see this now bleed into the larger-cap names. We want to see the smaller, more speculative, more volatile assets (small-caps and silver for example) outperforming the larger, less speculative, less volatile assets (large-caps and Gold) to signal real risk-appetite.

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Art Cashin – Stock Plunge May Become Cascade Of Panic Selling

from King World News
Today 50-year veteran Art Cashin warned King World News that today’s 335 point plunge in the Dow may turn into a “cascade” of panic selling. Below is what Cashin, who is Director of Floor Operations at UBS ($650 billion under management), had to say in this powerful interview.
Eric King: “Art, could today’s plunge in stocks turn into something more serious?
Cashin: “Yes it can. We are heading toward a potential retest of the area around 1,925 on the S&P. We stopped in that approximate area last Thursday, and again before the most recent bounce yesterday. So if we get down there and we test it and fails, we run the risk of a kind of cascade effect (of selling) at that point.
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Jim Rogers on Russia, US Equities and Commodities & Middleton on Banks

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Did The VIX Just Flash A Major Fear Signal?

I noted last Friday that many sentiment indicators were getting up near previous areas buyers had stepped in.  I ended it by saying the best thing would be to make more new lows this week and really get a spike in fear.  Well, we made the new lows and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) just triggered one of the better bullish signals over the past few years.
Taking a look at the VIX shows it just spiked up near the top end of its range over the past 20 months.
The VIX looks at volatility going out one month.  Or another way to put it, how much traders are willing to pay for S&P options a month out.  Meanwhile, the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index (VXV) looks at the volatility over the coming three months.  In most cases, the VXV is higher than the VIX because you are willing to pay more to own something for three months as there are more chances for something bad to happen.  Makes a lot of sense if you think about it.   (more)
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