Written by Marc Faber - GloomBoomDoom.com and The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire | Friday, 15 May 2009 07:47
"While not an optimist on the Chinese economy near term – Marc Faber likes Asian currencies, and banks ex-Japan."
From The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire today:
"China's first-quarter economic data, which showed 6.1% year-on-year GDP growth and a significant acceleration in quarter-on-quarter expansion, triggered a flood of reports suggesting that a sharp V-shaped recovery is under way. With the release of April's more mixed data, however, the celebratory champagne that was being poured has gone a bit flat. It's now clear that the economy still faces huge challenges, and in the second half of the year the acceleration in growth is likely to be gradual rather than explosive. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to hold to its below-consensus forecasts of 6.5% GDP growth in 2009 and 7.3% in 2010."
but......
Marc Faber on Armageddon
A vintage performance from the author of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report". This morning – living up to his reputation for bearishness - Marc Faber forecast a litany of unpleasant events ahead.
His key message is: buy real assets. He thinks it will take years for the global economy to recover, but when it does the effect of governments' printing money will ultimately reignite inflation. (more)
Monday, May 18, 2009
Asia will author its own destruction if it triggers a crisis over US bonds
Japan beware, crashes have a habit of bringing regime change
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 7:49AM BST 18 May 2009
Et tu Tokyo? If Washington is counting on Japan to act as last-resort buyer of US dollar bonds, it may have to think again. Masaharu Nakagawa, finance chief of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), told the BBC that his country should not purchase any more US debt unless issued in yen as "Samurai" bonds, akin to "Carter bonds" in 1978.
This is the sort of petulance that tends to emerge in the late phase of slumps (1840s, early 1930s) when mass lay-offs provoke a populist backlash and hotheads run away with the agenda. Mr Nakagawa later played down the comments, calling them private thoughts, but the genie is out of the bottle.
We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard US protection against Chinese naval expansion. Backed by Washington after the war as a rural counterweight to the urban left, the LDP has held an almost unbroken grip on power since 1955. (more)
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 7:49AM BST 18 May 2009
Et tu Tokyo? If Washington is counting on Japan to act as last-resort buyer of US dollar bonds, it may have to think again. Masaharu Nakagawa, finance chief of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), told the BBC that his country should not purchase any more US debt unless issued in yen as "Samurai" bonds, akin to "Carter bonds" in 1978.
This is the sort of petulance that tends to emerge in the late phase of slumps (1840s, early 1930s) when mass lay-offs provoke a populist backlash and hotheads run away with the agenda. Mr Nakagawa later played down the comments, calling them private thoughts, but the genie is out of the bottle.
We have come to assume that Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will always cleave to America, if only to safeguard US protection against Chinese naval expansion. Backed by Washington after the war as a rural counterweight to the urban left, the LDP has held an almost unbroken grip on power since 1955. (more)
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