Saturday, June 30, 2012

Greyerz – Greatest Financial Collapse The World Has Ever Seen

from KingWorldNews:

With global stock markets trading in the red, today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that people are going to witness the greatest financial collapse the world has ever seen. Egon von Greyerz, who is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, also said, “…investors are under the illusion that the system will continue, but it won’t.” Here is what Greyerz had to say about the the coming financial collapse: “As always, Eric, I’m focusing on the big picture. We are in a crisis, and the outcome is absolutely certain. What is not certain is how we get there. The problem is it’s not only one crisis, it’s a number of crises. We have the first one which is the sovereign crisis.”

“Almost every single major country in the world is bankrupt, and no one has the tools or a plan to get these countries out of this crisis. So countries will go bankrupt by default or by printing excessive money. This situation will continue to get worse and ultimately lead to a hyperinflationary depression.

Egon von Greyerz continues @

John Manfreda – Why Oil Is Down And Why It’s Going Back Up

from FinancialSurvivalNet

John Manfreda believes that oil prices are headed higher, especially when the next round of money printing begins in earnest. John recently authored a report that explores the trends and future prices in depth. He’s unconcerned about US and European demand, as he believes the developing world has more than picked up the slack and will continue to do so. Oil seems to have fallen into an interim sweet spot of $75-85. Each time the price has gone above that $85, it’s been beaten back, and it hasn’t gone below $75 for long periods of time. One thing is certain, the world will need ever increasing amounts of oil, and while we may not suffer shortages due to so-called peak oil, the costs of extraction will increase over time.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio

(Direct Download HERE)

The next huge investment bubble could be happening here

Investors seem to have a bottomless appetite for investment grade (IG) corporate paper. Issuers are coming to market to borrow money at ridiculously low rates. Even for the longer maturities the spreads are 1-2% above the corresponding treasury yield. Here are some examples:
  • Tyco: 10-year notes at Treasuries + 190bp
  • Markel: 10-year notes at Treasuries + 225bp (this firm is BBB)
  • John Deere: 10-year notes at Treasuries + 122bp
  • Caterpillar: 10-year notes at Treasuries +110bp
People are lending to CAT at 2.7% for 10 years! Who is buying this paper? Institutional investors of course, but also mutual funds, and ETFs. The ETF situation is particularly scary because it is driving some of these low yields and should be viewed as short-term money.

Below is a chart of shares outstanding for LQD, the iShares IBOXX investment grade corporate bond ETF. This thing is now $22.3 billion in assets (growing rapidly as new money pours in), and Larry Fink is opening the Champagne - again. LQD paid out 1.7% in dividends YTD (3.4% annualized) and investors can't get enough of it. People are betting that rates/spreads will go down even further and they will get capital appreciation on top of the crummy interest income. This looks like another crowded trade that is not going to end well.

LQD shares outstanding

Crude Oil Price Bubbleomics Impact on EP Valuations

By Andrew Butter, The Market Oracle:

The news is that Peak Oil didn’t come to town just yet, at least not according to the 2011 world oil production reported in the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

That’s shown here along with lines for America, Canada, Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman) on the right hand scale, in 2011 together all those places accounted for 37% of world production.

So the peak wasn’t in 2005 like Dr. Campbell predicted or even in 2006 which is what the IEA said last-year. It may turn out to have been in 2011 but we are going to have to work through 2012 to find that out, or even longer, depending mainly on how the European experiment with getting to work on donkeys plays out.

From the chart it looks like Saudi Arabia is not such a big swinger as they were in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Nowadays they and the other GCC states are just milking that cow for all she is worth while the good times roll.

Read More @

Adrian Douglas: A Good Time to Buy Gold

By Adrian Douglas, GATA:

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA board member Adrian Douglas, publisher of the Market Force Analysis letter, who has been sidelined in recent months as he has been recovering from illness, returned this week.

Many investors are unsure as to whether gold is a good investment and if gold will continue its rise in price that started twelve years ago. Those who have not invested in precious metals may well be thinking that their investment is too late. Other investors who hold the metal are wondering if gold will fail to reach new highs.
A reassurance that precious metals are nowhere near their potential is that the world has in no way started to resolve the massive debt burden that has been created. Precious metals are one of the few things that can be purchased that have no counter party risk. I prefer to look at precious metals from the different view point that paper money is being debased at an alarming rate due to excessive issuance of paper and it is the precious metals that are not altered. By holding precious metals, one is able to preserve purchasing power. In fact, when panic sets in, the rush for precious metals will actually increase purchasing power.

Read More @

Doug Casey on the Coming Eurocrash

by Louis James, Casey Research:

(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)

L: So Doug, you’re off to FreedomFest 2012 shortly, where people will be able to hear your latest thoughts on many subjects. Maybe you can give us a sneak preview on whatever is uppermost on your mind today.

Doug: FreedomFest should be especially outrageous, since I’ll be tag-teaming with my friend Jeff Berwick of the Dollar Vigilante for a featured lunch. I’m not sure exactly what topics we’re going to discuss, but I hope we aren’t prosecuted for breaking too many federal, state, and local statutes at one sitting.

Anyway, lately I’ve been thinking about the EU’s rising tide of troubles. We talked about this last January, when I said it was coming, but it seems to me that at this point it’s rapidly coming to a head. A major financial and economic catastrophe in Europe is unavoidable. From there, it’s likely to spread out to the whole world.

L: I fear you’re right, but the latest headlines have it that the EU bigwigs are taking measures to make it easier for Greece’s new pro-bailout government to honor its austerity obligations. Doesn’t that mean the EU has dodged the bullet for now?

Doug: As far as I can tell, they’re doing absolutely nothing except print up more currency, in hope that will move the problem further into the future, when a deus ex machina device will magically appear.

Read More @

Brent & WTI Curves are not Converging any Time Soon

By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look

The Brent-WTI crude oil spread has dropped materially from the peak, but managed to stay above $11/barrel. It has now recovered to $13. What’s more interesting is the difference in the shapes of the two curves – particularly given that Brent and WTI are essentially the same products.

Brent is in backwardation, while WTI is in contango. Backwardation generally means tighter supply (more demand for the spot product) – a bullish indicator, while contango tends to indicate the opposite. It says that the crude market in the US (particularly in Cushing, OK) is well supplied, which is not the case with Brent (at least not nearly as much).

Brent and WTI futures curves

There is talk however that the gap between these two curves will close fairly soon (ht John A).

Bloomberg/BW: – The energy guys at Goldman Sachs, led by analyst David Greely, think that by the end of 2012 the price of WTI will be just $5 below Brent, largely because new pipeline projects, such as the recently reversed Seaway, will allow more domestic crude to reach refineries along the Gulf Coast, making WTI more valuable. In essence, the more domestic crude that reaches the Gulf Coast, the stronger the floor beneath the price of WTI becomes.

Some people doubt Goldman’s forecast however. If traders truly believed in this rapid convergence, the two curves above would be approaching $5 spread six months out. Instead the difference in the January 2013 contracts is above $11.Analysts instead are looking at brisk US crude production that has been on the rise this year (we had signs of that increase earlier in the year).

US crude oil production (thousands of barrels per day; source EIA)

It means that in spite of the reversed Seaway pipeline that is delivering US crude to the Gulf Coast (to the large US refineries), there is still not enough pipeline capacity to accommodate this increased production, putting downward pressure on WTI.

Bloomberg/BW: – “Five dollars is not likely,” says Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer. “And even if it does go to $5, it’s not going to stay there.” Gheit points out that as long as WTI stays above $70, drilling companies can still make money producing new wells, which in turn, he says, will keep WTI anywhere from $8 to $12 below the price of Brent.

Art Cashin – Shorts Squeezed in Dear God Get Me Out Moment

from King World News

With global stock markets on the move, while gold and oil exploded to the upside, today Art Cashin told King World News that for the shorts, “It is a kind of ‘Dear God get me out of here and I promise not to do this again.’ So a general panic along those lines.” Cashin, who is Director of Floor Operations for UBS, which has $612 billion under management, also commented on the spectacular rally in gold and oil. Here is what Art Cashin had to say: “Expectations for this summit were so low that if they came out of it without a fist-fight, we probably would have had a rally. The idea that they may have gotten something moving, caused a spectacular short-covering rally in the euro and put pressure on the dollar. You can see oil is up 8%.”

Continue Reading at…

Sprott – We’re Being Lied To, Even The 1% Is Having Problems

from KingWorldNews:

Today billionaire Eric Sprott gave King World News an extraordinary interview, and it’s not the kind of thing you are going to see in the mainstream media. Sprott told KWN, “…as much as we knew the 99% was having a problem, I can guarantee you the 1% is having a big problem today.” Sprott, who is Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, also said, “the markets go up because the central planners want the markets to go up … The system is imploding on itself, but the central planners want everyone to think it’s fine. They just lie to us.”

He also stated, “…there is no plan, no formalized plan, no agreed to plan. It’s all just vaporware.” Here is what Billionaire Sprott had to say about what is happening: “Today’s rally (end of quarter window dressing), even though there is no agreement by the way, but the markets go up because the central planners want the markets to go up. But the fundamentals for the market are deteriorating by the day. We have more and more warnings, retail sales are plunging.”

“There’s no way to stimulate things. We’ve already got a zero interest rate policy, now they are talking about a negative interest rate policy. We don’t have the room to stimulate because we’ve already got massive deficits. So I don’t see a way of pulling the world out of its economic funk any longer.

Eric Sprott continues @

Friday, June 29, 2012

Capital Controls Coming

For the past few months depositors have been emptying their Greek and Spanish bank accounts and moving the funds to safer places like Germany and Switzerland. This is not surprising. What is surprising is that anyone still has accounts in Greek and Spanish banks.

This is a trend with a limited lifespan. Either sentiment stabilizes and capital starts flowing back into peripheral eurozone countries (possible but unlikely), or the slow-motion bank run continues until the Greek and Spanish banks are empty, or the trickle becomes a torrent as everyone heads for the exits at once, thus crashing those countries’ banking systems.

In the second and third scenarios, the result will be capital controls ranging from bank closures (like FDR’s 1933 bank holiday), to expropriation of bank accounts (as when Argentina converted dollar-based accounts to pesos in 2002), to restrictions on the movement of wealth across borders. Planning for such capital controls is well under way: (more)

Survey: More Than 25% of Americans Have No Emergency Savings

While nearly half of Americans don't have enough money saved to cover emergencies, one-quarter don't have any money saved, according to's Financial Security Index survey.

The general rule of thumb is to have enough cash saved to cover at least six months of expenses.

However, only 25 percent of Americans have saved that amount and 17 percent have three to five months' expenses saved, while 28 percent have no emergency savings and 21 percent have less than three months' expenses saved.

Those earning more than $75,000 annually have higher odds of saving six months of expenses. Only 9 percent of these high earners don't have emergency savings versus 52 percent of those earning less than $30,000.

Among retirees, 41 percent have enough money saved to cover at least six months' expenses, while 26 percent have less than six months' expenses saved and 18 percent have no savings.

In addition, 41 percent of college graduates report having emergency savings compared with 14 percent of those with a high school education.

According to race, 23 percent of white Americans have no emergency savings compared with 38 percent of nonwhite individuals.

Further, 28 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Independents have no emergency savings versus 19 percent of Republicans.

"Incomes are largely stagnant, so it's difficult for people to make significant headway on savings when household expenses are creeping higher but incomes are not," Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for, tells CNNMoney. "Prolonged unemployment has also depleted the savings of many people who at one time had a more appropriate cushion.

"The biggest barrier to saving is not being in the habit of saving," McBride says. "By establishing that habit, even if an unplanned expense comes up and wipes out what you've accumulated, you're only one paycheck away from restarting the saving process."

The telephone survey was conducted June 7 through June 10 among 1,000 U.S. adults.

Sell Paper, Buy Bricks


“The world has much to fear,” James Grant declares in a recent issue of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, “However, it seems to us, not the least of these perils are the alleged safe havens themselves.” Therefore, says Grant, “In general, this publication is bullish on things certified to be unsafe, bearish on things certified to be safe (assuming always that the respective prices are right).”

Specifically, Grant is bearish on one of the very “safest” of safe things: highly rated government bonds. “The times may be troubled (they often are),” he says, “and people may be desperate (someone usually is), but that doesn’t mean that low-yielding sovereign debt is the last word in safety and soundness.”

Grant does not assert that top-tier government bonds are necessarily unsafe, merely that they are undesirable…and potentially unsafe. At current yields, many government bonds offer what Grant has termed, “return-free risk.”

As the nearby chart clearly shows, the yields provided by the marquee AAA government bonds of the US, Germany, Switzerland and the UK have been in a freefall for several years. As recently as four years ago, a 5-year bond from the Swiss government yielded about 3%. Today, the 5-year yield is negative! That’s right; an investor must pay the Swiss government for the privilege of lending it money.

The Miniscule Yields Provided By a Sampling of AAA-Rated 5-Year Government Bonds

The 5-year yields provided by the other AAA issuers in this chart are at least positive, but just barely. All of them yield less than one percent per year.…Read more…

Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS)

Dillard's, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as fashion apparel, cosmetics, and home furnishing retailer in the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for women, men, and children, as well as accessories and other consumer goods. Its merchandise selections comprise lines of brand merchandise, such as Antonio Melani, Gianni Bini, Roundtree & Yorke, and Daniel Cremieux. It also sells its merchandise on-line through its Web site, In addition, the company operates as a general contracting construction company. As of January 28, 2012, it operated 304 retail department stores located primarily in the southwest, southeast, and midwest regions of the United States. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.

To review Dillard's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of DDS (Dillard's, Inc.) below with my added notations:

DDS had been consolidating within a small Rectangle pattern over the last (2) months. A Rectangle pattern forms when a stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. With DDS, the Rectangle pattern formed a $70 resistance (black) and a $65 support area (red), a support that was also a strong resistance prior. Yesterday the stock broke its $65 support and should be moving lower overall from here.

Chart patterns can also provide price targets. Simply take the height of the overall pattern and add or subtract that amount to or from the breakout or breakdown point to get the minimum price objective. For example, since the Rectangle pattern for DDS is $5 high ($70 - $65), the stock should fall to a minimum of $60 ($65 - $5) now that it has broken support. Chart pattern price targets are certainly not guarantees, but they are often fulfilled.

The Tale of the Tape: DDS formed a common Rectangle pattern and the stock broke the support created by that pattern. The ideal trading opportunity would be a short trade on a rally back up to $65. A break back above $65 would provide a long trading opportunity instead.

Looming Foreclosures = House-Price Obstacle

David Wilson of Bloomberg takes a crack at the Housing turnaround story:

Persistently high foreclosure rates show the U.S. housing industry is “bouncing along the bottom” even though sale prices are recovering.

The chart above, via strategist Pierre Lapointe of Brockhouse & Cooper, shows the percentage of foreclosed home loans little changed from the 4.3% average for 2009. (Data source: Mortgage Bankers Association).

A spate of recent positive data following the usual seasonal pattern continues to give false hope to homeowners, banks and REO buyers. The front page of the NYT today was the latest to declare the recovery was at hand.

The problem is that the Banks had voluntarily stopped their foreclosures while negotiating the robo-signing settlement. They are now poised “to flood the market with foreclosed homes.” Their distressed sales are likely to pressure prices.

A meaningful and sustained increase in house prices is still several years away. In other words, it is still too early to get excited.”

Where in the World is Risk Today?

by Russ Koes­terich, Chief Invest­ment Strate­gist, iShares

With the sov­er­eign debt cri­sis cen­tered in the devel­oped world, the tra­di­tional notion that all devel­oped mar­kets are less risky for investors than all emerg­ing mar­kets doesn’t hold up anymore.

Today, while devel­oped mar­kets cer­tainly top the list of the least risky coun­tries and vice versa for emerg­ing mar­kets, some devel­oped mar­kets are now just as risky as emerg­ing mar­kets. At the same time, some emerg­ing coun­tries are now just as safe as their devel­oped mar­ket counterparts.

It’s no won­der, then, that deter­min­ing how var­i­ous devel­oped and emerg­ing mar­kets cur­rently stack up in terms of risk­i­ness can be tough, espe­cially given today’s highly volatile markets.

Fig­ur­ing out the risk­i­ness of a coun­try, how­ever, is very impor­tant for investors. In “risk-off” envi­ron­ments, the val­u­a­tions of high risk coun­tries tend to suf­fer more than the val­u­a­tions of lower risk coun­tries. Sim­i­larly, val­u­a­tions of higher risk coun­tries tend to ben­e­fit more in “risk-on” environments.

David Wang, a researcher on my Invest­ment Strat­egy Group team, recently per­formed an analy­sis that can help investors deter­mine where in the world risk is today. Using a com­bi­na­tion of coun­tries’ macro­eco­nomic char­ac­ter­is­tics and one-year mar­ket index volatil­ity, David devel­oped a rank­ing of coun­tries’ riskiness.

Here’s his list of the top 15 riski­est coun­tries today, i.e. the coun­tries whose val­u­a­tions are most sen­si­tive to “risk-on” and “risk-off” sen­ti­ment shifts:

1.) Hun­gary

2.) Italy

3.) Aus­tria

4.) Swe­den

5.) Poland

6.) Fin­land

7.) Spain

8.) Ger­many

9.) France

10.) Rus­sia

11.) Nor­way

12.) South Korea

13.) Turkey

14.) Nether­lands

15.) Brazil

So how did David come up with his rank­ing? He started with four hypotheses:

1.) Coun­tries exposed to the Euro­pean sov­er­eign debt cri­sis should be clas­si­fied as higher risk.

2.) Devel­oped mar­ket coun­tries with sta­ble cur­ren­cies dur­ing volatile peri­ods should be clas­si­fied as lower risk.

3.) Emerg­ing mar­ket coun­tries with more cycli­cal sec­tor expo­sure may be higher risk.

4.) Emerg­ing mar­ket coun­tries with bet­ter fis­cal and growth sit­u­a­tions should be clas­si­fied as lower risk.

He used these hypothe­ses to come up with a rough rank­ing of coun­tries’ risk­i­ness and then con­firmed that list with one-year volatil­ity mea­sures of coun­try MSCI indices.

To be sure, a country’s risk­i­ness can shift over time with chang­ing eco­nomic con­di­tions. For instance, if the Euro­pean sov­er­eign debt cri­sis were solved tomor­row, the risk rank­ing above would cer­tainly change. But for now, the coun­try risk rank­ing above can poten­tially help investors adapt their port­fo­lios to today’s macro­eco­nomic landscape.

Source: iShares Invest­ment Strat­egy Group research

Chart of the Day - Wisconsin Energy (WEC)

The "Chart of the Day" is Wisconsin Energy (WEC), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Wisconsin Energy on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $39.70 and closed up +1.46%. TrendSpotter just turned long again on Tuesday at $39.01 after taking a profit last week on a 2-month long trade. In recent news on the stock, Wells Fargo on May 15 downgraded Wisconsin Energy to Market Perform from Outperform with an unchanged target of $38-29, but a day earlier RW Baird upgraded Wisconsin Energy to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $40 from $35. Wisconsin Energy Corp, with a market cap of $8.9 billion, serves electric and natural gas customers in Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula through its primary utility subsidiaries Wisconsin Electric, Wisconsin Gas and Edison Sault Electric. Its non-utility subsidiaries include energy services and development, pump manufacturing, waste-to-energy, and real estate businesses.


Thursday, June 28, 2012

Sabina A Possible 10-Bagger Within 2-3 Years

Investors looking for an emerging producer with the capability to put a medium sized gold deposit into production in a relatively politically stable jurisdiction, where costs are reasonable, and without having to dilute shareholders with a gazillion share issue, or bootstrap itself with a project financing, look no further.

The timing is probably good too.

Sabina Gold & Silver published a preliminary economic assessment completed by SRK on the Back River project recently.

The news release stated the following:

“PEA contemplates a scenario with concurrent open-pit and underground mining operations delivering mineralized material from the Llama, Umwelt, Goose and George deposits to a centralized 5,000 tonne per day ("tpd") processing facility located near the Umwelt deposit. Gold production is projected to average ~300,000 oz/year over 12.3 years for total production of 3,677,000 oz Au, beginning in late 2016 or early 2017.”

SRK concluded that the project may be economically viable and that Sabina should proceed to a pre-feasibility study. It calculated an after tax NPV-5% of about $650 million and an IRR of 25% (4 year payback) at a $1250 gold price ($1.1billion and 32% IRR (pre–tax)), assuming cash operating costs of $542 per ounce, preproduction capital of $450 million, and sustaining capital of $388 million (plus a $100 million contingency). (more)

Moody’s warns on Canadians mortgage debt

The federal government’s attempt to cool the housing market “may have come too late” to prevent a harsh landing for residential real estate, Moody’s Investors Service is warning.

After Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced last week that Ottawa is tightening the rules on government-backed mortgages to keep the housing market from overheating, Moody’s said it is concerned the efforts may not be enough. High levels of household debt in Canada have left consumers with little flexibility to adapt to shifting markets, the credit rating agency said.

“The government’s moves may have come too late, owing to the buildup in consumer debt that has already occurred,” Moody’s said in a research note Monday. “Canadian consumers’ reliance on low interest rates to support high debt loads remains a risk.”

Mr. Flaherty introduced several changes which the government hopes will result in a soft landing in the housing market, rather than a hard crash. Most notably, Ottawa reduced the maximum amortization on a government-backed loan to 25 years, from 30 years; and reduced the amount consumers could borrow against their home, to 80 per cent, down from 85 per cent.

It was the fourth time in four years the government has waded into the market to tweak mortgage rules to reduce the debt appetite of Canadians, who have sent household debt levels to record levels amid historically low interest rates.

Mr. Flaherty had been saying for the past six months that the government would step in “if necessary” but Moody’s worries Ottawa may have waited too long, and that a soft landing may be difficult to engineer now. (more)

Roper Industries Inc. (NYSE: ROP)

Roper Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes radio frequency (RF) products and services, industrial technology products, energy systems and controls, and medical and scientific imaging products and software. Its Medical and Scientific Imaging segment offers patient positioning devices, 3-D measurement technology, diagnostic and therapeutic disposable products, ultrasound bladder volume measurement instruments, and video laryngoscopes. The company's Energy Systems and Controls segment produces control systems, fluid properties testing equipment, industrial valves and controls, sensors and controls, and non-destructive inspection and measurement products and solutions. Its Industrial Technology segment produces water and fluid handling pumps, equipment and consumables, leak testing equipment, flow measurement and metering equipment, water meter, and automatic meter reading products and systems. The company's RF Technology segment provides radio frequency identification communication technology and software solutions that are used in toll and traffic systems and processing; security and access control. The company distributes its products through direct sales personnel, manufacturers' representatives; value added resellers, original equipment manufacturers, and distributors. It principally operates in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and South America.

To review Roper's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ROP (Roper Industries, Inc.) below with my added notations:

Since moving higher from October of last year, ROP has been consolidating within a small Rectangle pattern over the last (2) months. A Rectangle pattern forms when a stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. With ROP, the Rectangle pattern has formed a $103 resistance (red) and a $95 support area (navy), a support that was also a strong resistance prior.

The Tale of the Tape: ROP has formed a common Rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on ROP would be either on a pullback to $95, or on a breakout above $103. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $95.

Eveillard – This Is All A Delusion, I Am Keeping My Gold

from KingWorldNews:

With global stock markets trading higher, today King World News interviewed legendary value investor Jean Marie Eveillard, who oversees $50 billion at First Eagle Funds. Eveillard told KWN that despite “the fact that the stimulus has been completely unprecedented in scope … the economic recovery seems to be sputtering.” He also discussed the gold market, but first, here is what Eveillard had to say about the ongoing crisis: “There is no doubt that there are major deflationary forces at play. There is also no doubt that the private sector is continuing to deleverage. But in order to prevent the deleveraging of the private sector from sending the economy into a replay of the Great Depression, governments are leveraging themselves.”

“So the public sector is leveraging up in a major way in practically every country. And in a pure paper money system, which we’ve had for more than 40 years, in a pure paper money system you can always inflate. There are deflationary forces at work, but governments are making sure they are offset, if not more than offset, by leveraging up of the public sector. So I wouldn’t worry too much about deflation.

Jean-Marie Eveillard continues @

Credit Default Swaps Explained

from Wealth Cycles:

A credit default swap (CDS) is a derivative referencing the credit of the ‘reference entity.’ A derivative is simply a contract.

You can think of a credit default swap (CDS) as kind of like auto insurance. Let’s say you are buying car insurance for yourself:

  • You purchase car insurance from an insurance company
  • You will make periodic payments to the insurance company
  • If you do not get in an accident, the insurance company keeps the money
  • If you do get in an accident, the insurance covers the cost of the damages

A CDS is similar but not identical. One difference is, with a CDS you are buying insurance to protect against a credit event of the reference entity:

  • The buyer will purchase a CDS to insure against the reference entity
  • The CDS buyer will make periodic payments to the seller
  • If the reference entity does not suffer a credit event, as defined by the ISDA, the CDS seller keeps the payments
  • In the case of a credit event, the CDS buyer receives full value, and the CDS seller typically receives the defaulted security from the CDS buyer (as an auto insurer would receive a totaled vehicle)
  • Read More @

Will India Implement The First “Executive Order 6102″ Of The 21st Century?

from Zero Hedge

Something strange has been happening in India in the last year: while the rest of the “developed” world has been doing all in its power to crush its currency in order to promote exports within a globalist mercantilist system suddenly gone haywire, India has had the opposite problem: with its economy slowing down even as rampant inflation persists, its currency has been sliding against all other currencies. But probably more importantly: plunging against gold, as can be seen on the chart enclosed.

Continue Reading at…

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Arab Spring, Paraguayan Summer, Spanish Fall, Greek Winter

A Look At This Week’s Show:
-Fed “Twist” disappoints speculators
-Retail insiders hit the exits
-Patience equals investment virtue

Dow’s Heavy-Duty Sell Signal Spells Trouble

Monday’s drubbing was followed by a lethargic low-volume rebound Tuesday, which was triggered by a Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index that had a lower-than-expected decline. But consumer sentiment was a disappointment falling to 62 where 64 was expected.

The market lost much of Monday’s volatility but regained some of the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 32 points to 12,534, the S&P 500 closed at 1,320, up 6 points, and the Nasdaq was up 18 points to close at 2,854. The NYSE traded 711 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 416 million. Advancers led decliners by 1.7-to-1 on the Big Board and by 1.3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Dow Chart
Click to EnlargeTrade of the Day Chart Key

Volatility is a key characteristic of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the late-April top. The index broke the 200-day moving average briefly in early June, then bounced, and in late June, penetrated the 50-day moving average.

Despite Tuesday’s 32-point advance, the test of the 200-day may not be over. Sluggish volume and a lack of depth, as well as a heavy-duty sell signal from the stochastic, tell us that the bulls are under more pressure than the bears. (more)

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Don Coxe – Get Ready, Banks to Collapse In Europe

from KingWorldNews:

Today 40 year veteran, Don Coxe, told King World News “…the amounts involved are at mind-boggling levels,” in terms of what is needed for Europe’s governments and banks. Coxe, who is Global Strategy Advisor to BMO ($538 billion in assets), also said that European banks, “…have borrowed huge amounts of money, in dollars, under currency swap arrangements,” and “if banks start to go down, we know from 2008, when banks start to crumble, then the whole system falls.” Here is what Coxe had to say about the ongoing crisis: “Well, first of all we’ve got to stop using ‘billions’ because if there is going to be a fund that works, it’s going to have a ‘T’ (for trillions) on it. We are dealing with some very big numbers in the sense that Italy, although it’s not that big of an economy, it’s got the third largest amount of bond debt outstanding.”

“So Italy’s situation is truly serious because they also have a short duration on their debt. If you were holding a three-year Italian bond, but it’s only got three months to maturity, you are probably not going to sell it now because you want to get your money out. But you are not likely to roll it over, unless you are an Italian bank.

Don Coxe continues @

3 Mexican Stocks Worth A Look : ASR, OMAB, PAC, EMIF

The United States has approximately 20,000 airports with only one in Branson, Missouri, that is privately run. Many other countries have privatized many of their airports including Mexico, Australia, India and Spain. Two Mexican airport operators trade on the New York Stock Exchange while a third is listed on the Nasdaq. It seems odd in a nation that rails against regulation, that there's absolutely no private ownership. Interested investors can buy the stock of one or more of these companies. We'll decide which is the best investment.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (Nasdaq:OMAB)
The smallest of the three airport operators, it holds a 50-year concession through 2048 to operate 13 airports and one hotel in 10 states in the central-north area of Mexico. I'm most familiar with the Acapulco and Zihuatanejo airports, which I've traveled through on past vacations. In 2011, its passenger traffic increased 1.6% to 11.8 million people. Owned in part by a consortium that includes ICA, Mexico's leading construction and infrastructure company, as well as the people who own the Paris airport, the public's 41% interest is in good hands. (more)

Jay Taylor: Turning Hard Times Into Good Times

Part 2
6/26/2012: Crapitalism’s effects on Life, Liberty & the Pursuit of Happiness

Liquidation could send Silver down to $18

by Ben Traynor, Bullion Street:

London Gold market report

Wholesale market gold prices traded as low as $1560 an ounce Friday morning, before recovering some ground by lunchtime in London, while European stock markets were also down and commodities were broadly flat.

Silver prices meantime sank to a 2012 low at $26.64 an ounce – a 7.2% drop on last week’s close. “We believe a break of $26.00 has the ability to trigger liquidation of silver with it looking for $18.00,” says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Heading into the weekend, gold prices by Friday lunchtime looked set for their biggest weekly fall since the first week of March, having fallen 3.7% since the start of Monday’s trading.

On the currency markets, the Euro ticked lower against the Dollar, hitting its lowest level this week. “A decline in the Euro may have contributed to a drop in gold prices,” says HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel.

Read More @

CanElson, 50%+ profit potential

CanElson Drilling Inc. (CanElson) is engaged in the manufacture, acquisition, operation and sale of drilling rigs for the oil and gas industry. The Company operates in two segments: Oilfield services and rig construction and retrofit.

The stock has a PE ratio of 7.4 and yields almost 5% and is considered cheap by several firms that have rated it a buy. The stock looks even more attractive now on recent weakness.
Action Analyst Rating Price Date
Target National Bank Financial $7.50 « $6.60 05/09/12
Target PI Financial Buy $7.00 « $6.75 05/09/12
Target National Bank Financial $6.60 « $7.00 04/16/12
Target Paradigm Research $7.25 « $6.75 03/13/12
Target PI Financial Buy $7.00 « $6.00 03/13/12

Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT)

Brinker International, Inc. owns, develops, operates, and franchises various restaurant brands primarily in the United States. It operates the restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy brand names. As of August 29, 2011, the company owned, operated, and franchised 1,534 Chili's Grill & Bar restaurants and 45 Maggiano's Little Italy restaurants in 50 states, and Washington, D.C.; and held a minority investment in Romano's Macaroni Grill. It also has restaurants in the United States territories of Guam and Puerto Rico; and in the countries of Bahrain, Canada, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Germany, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Syria, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

To review Brinker's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) below with my added notations:

After trending higher for most of the last year, EAT has been consolidating within a small Rectangle over the last 2 months. A Rectangle pattern forms when a stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. For EAT, the Rectangle pattern has formed a $33 resistance (blue) and a $30 support area (navy).

The Tale of the Tape: EAT has formed a standard Rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on EAT would be either on a pullback to $30, or on a breakout above $33. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $30.

BREAKING NEWS: Huge Worldwide Cyber Bank Raid Ongoing- Estimated €2 Billion Stolen

*Breaking Reports: Cyber Bank Raid in Progress Targeting US, UK, Euro-zone Banks*

UK’s Sky News has just reported that a huge worldwide cyber bank raid is ongoing- €60 million have been confirmed stolen through 1 server, and a total of €2 billion is estimated to have been stolen through an additional 59 servers!

Sky News is reporting that McAfee Virus has uncovered a series of financial attacks on US, UK, and Euro-zone banks with individual transfers of over €100,000 being reported.

Is this an extension of RBS’ NatWest’s complete banking system melt-down/ cash account rehypothecation, which is now in its 8th day?

Our thoughts are this is either an Iranian ‘Stuxnet’ retaliation, or a false-flag banking system lock up by the Western Central Banks themselves on which they can conveniently pin the blame for an imminent derivatives induced contagion and banking collapse.


Story has been completely wiped from Sky News’ Website, link now reads 404: Page Not Found.

Full story still being reported on several alternative media sites:

Security firms McAfee and Guardian Analytics have published a joint fraud report, dubbed Operation High Roller, on new methods of siphoning money from banking systems. Using a series of highly sophisticated cyber attacks to target high balance accounts, criminals have been able to successfully bypass physical “chip and pin” authentication and use server-based fraudulent transactions to steal money from a number of accounts in Europe. The attacks originated in Italy, using SpyEye and Zeus malware to transfer funds into fraudulent accounts….

The majority of attacks appear to have taken place across European banking systems, but McAfee warns that it has found evidence of attacks at Latin American and North American financial institutions too. The company is warning that 60 servers have been processing thousands of attempted thefts from high-value accounts over a period of months, resulting in attempts to steal at least €60 million (US$78 million). McAfee says that if all the attempted fraud attacks were successful then the total attempted fraud could be as high as €2 billion ($2.49 billion).

Chart of the Day - SBA Communications (SBAC)

The "Chart of the Day" is SBA Communications (SBAC), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. SBA Communications on Monday edged to a new 12-year high of $56.00 and closed up 1.63%. TrendSpotter has been long since June 15 at $53.72. In recent news on the stock, Barron's on May 20 mentioned SBA Communications as a stock that is a candidate for REIT conversion that could offer upside for investors. Macquarie on May 24 upgraded SBA Communications to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $60 from $56 based on valuation and growth. Canaccord on May 24 recommended buying cell tower stocks including SBA Communications because tower companies should benefit from cell carrier deployment of 4G LET nationwide networks and from upgrade activity at T-Mobile and Sprint. SBA Communications, with a market cap of $6.5 billion, is a leading independent owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure in the United States.


Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG)

Harley-Davidson, Inc. engages in the production and sale of heavyweight motorcycles. It operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products, and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells cruiser and touring motorcycles for the heavyweight market. This segment sells its products through a network of independent dealers and distributors primarily in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale retail financing; and insurance and insurance-related programs primarily to its dealers and their retail customers in the United States and Canada. This segment also offers motorcycle insurance, as well as extended service contracts, credit protection, motorcycle maintenance products, gap coverage, and debt protection products to motorcycle owners. The company was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

To analyze Harley's stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of HOG (Harley-Davidson, Inc.) below with my added notations:

HOG has rallied nicely with the overall market since October of last year. Over the last (5) months, the stock has created a couple of key price levels to watch. Most importantly, the $45 support level (navy) that was also a brief resistance back in January. This support has been tested on 5) different occasions. In addition, the $50 (red) price has commonly acted as resistance in both March and June.

The Tale of the Tape: If HOG rallies back up to $50, you could enter a short play. If it breaks above $50, you could certainly enter a long play. You could also buy HOG if it comes back down to the $45 level, or short the stock if it breaks that $45 support.

Richard Russell – This Terrifying Financial Collapse & Gold

from KingWorldNews:

With global markets trading in a sea of red, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, issued the following warning: “… it is dawning on Bernanke that the Fed cannot defeat the powers of deflation and the primary bear trend … and Bernanke knows it, but cannot talk about it – it’s too frightening.” Russell also discussed gold at length, but first, this was Russell’s disturbing conclusion regarding the precarious situation we face: “The Russell view — The Fed and all central banks are fighting the implacable forces of global deflation. This is really the primary bear trend that I’ve been writing about. It’s the result of a fundamental change in the world markets. Suddenly, within the space of a few years, Asia has entered the global economy.”

Richard Russell continues @

The Full “Three-Days-To-Eurocalypse” Soros Interview

from Zero Hedge:

In a no-holds-barred interview with Bloomberg TV’s Francine Lacqua, the increasingly droopy-faced George Soros remains as sprite-minded as ever in his clarifying thoughts on Europe. His diagnosis is spot on: “Basically there is an interrelated problem of the banking system and the excessive risk premium on sovereign debt – they are Siamese twins, tied together and you have to tackle both” and summarizes the forthcoming Summit ‘fiasco’ as fatal if the fiscal disagreements are not resolved (and as of this afternoon, we know Germany’s constant position on this). His solution is unlikely to prove tenable in the short-term as he notes “Merkel has emerged as a strong leader”, but “unfortunately, she has been leading Europe in the wrong direction”. His extensive interview covers what Europe needs, the Bund bubble, GRexit, post-summit contagion, and Mario Monti’s impotence.

Read More @ Zero

Stocks Could be Headed Much Lower... Here's What to Do

Goldman Sachs recently announced that they believe the stock market is poised for at least a short-term sell-off. Bearish calls from major Wall Street firms are rare, so it makes sense to pay attention to this news.

In addition to Goldman's change of heart, I have a few other reasons to be concerned about the short-term. Here are a couple ideas for where to put investment capital while the risks are high.

In March of this year, Goldman Sachs said they believed stocks were undervalued and over the next few years stocks would deliver strong gains. Three months later, strategists at the firm said the S&P 500 could fall towards 1,285 from a recent 1,350. Their bearish call makes sense. Stocks have gone down slightly in the past three months while the economy has shown signs of deterioration. This is a setup for a bear market.

To spot investment opportunities, I like to look at the 26-week Rate of Change ("ROC") indicator. This indicator points to promising stocks and ETFs that have real potential to outperform the market. It also points out the stocks and ETFs that are most likely to underperform. I've found the same general idea can be applied to economic data as well. (more)

This "Stealth" Bull Market Just Hit a New High

Biotech has just "broken the box"...

For the last few months, Growth Stock Wire readers have been following the "stealth biotech boom." Biotech stocks are enjoying a big uptrend... but you rarely see it mentioned in the mainstream press.

We're particularly interested in this uptrend because biotech is one of the greatest "boom and bust" sectors known to man. Thus, the sector is a good friend for the speculator [2]. Ride the booms and avoid (or even short) the busts, and you can make a fortune.

The biotech sector shares [3] many characteristics with the resource sector. Like mining exploration firms, many biotechs burn through cash in search of the "next big thing." When a firm strikes it rich, the returns can easily go into the thousands of percent.

For this reason, both sectors tend to draw in "hot money" every few years and go through huge speculative booms... which are followed by big busts.

You can gauge which way the biotech wind is blowing with the SPDR [4] Biotech Fund (XBI), which holds more than 50 companies in the sector. (more)

BREAKING: U.S. Regulators to Classify Gold as Zero-Risk Asset

by John Butler, Financial Sense:

In what might be the most underreported financial story of the year, US banking regulators recently circulated a memorandum for comment, including proposed adjustments to current regulatory capital risk-weightings for various assets. For the first time, unencumbered gold bullion is to be classified as zero risk, in line with dollar cash, US Treasuries and other explicitly government-guaranteed assets. If implemented, this will be an important step in the re-monetisation of gold and, other factors equal, should be strongly supportive of the gold price, both outright and relative to that for government bonds, the primary beneficiaries of the most recent flight to safety. Stay tuned.

Read More @

The Day Of The Deflationists

by Jim Sinclair

My Dear Extended Family,

Never before in the entire period of 1968 to 1980, or 2001 to present, have I received so many copies of classical deflationist scenarios in one day. It would seem as if the God of Deflation overflew the gold guys and dropped their leaflets.

Classical deflation does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of occurring now for any length of time. To assume that you have to hold the belief that Bernanke is a mole in the present administration, placed their covertly to bury the present administration so deep that there will never be a democrat in office after 2013 anywhere.

If you believe there is a political appetite for the collapse of the Western financial system, they had a perfect chance in 2008 and did not accept that great opportunity to purge the system of Banksters for political reasons.

Continue Reading at…

Chart of the Day - Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN)

The "Chart of the Day" is Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Mead Johnson on Friday posted a new all-time high of $88.72 and closed up 3.23%. TrendSpotter has been long since June 15 at $85.32. In recent news on the stock, Credit Suisse on June 14 raised its earnings estimates for Mead Johnson due to lower commodity prices and recent price increases in China. Credit Suisse reiterated its Outperform rating and $98 price target. Miller Tabak on June 5 upgraded its rating on Mead Johnson to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $90. Mead Johnson Nutrition, with a market cap of $17 billion, is a global leader in pediatric nutrition and sells more than 70 products in over 50 markets worldwide. The company's "Enfa" family of brands, including Enfamil infant formula, is the world's leading brand franchise in pediatric nutrition.


Monday, June 25, 2012

Ben Davies – Eurozone, Deleveraging & Gold to Break $6,000

from KingWorldNews:

With tremendous volatility in global markets around the world, today King World News interviewed Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital. Davies told KWN, “it would have been lovely to have had an extreme event happen so that we get to the end of this process.” Here is what Davies had to say about what is taking place: “I think the mini-boom that we had in the nominal gold price, up to $1,900, we’ve been working off that mini-excess sideways. The disinflationary pressures from this concept of credit dying is worrying, and I think it weighs on all assets prices. But gold is doing what it should be doing.

Ben Davies continues @

Investing For Dummies

Unfair taxes in Italy

After leaving Goldman Sachs, Monti was president at the Bocconi University. Since joining the political space, Monti has had serious problems with regards to “fixing” the Italian economy. People just don’t want austerity, and at the same time increased taxes. IN Italy, it simply doesn’t work. Would you pay, if you felt you are totally pushed into the corner? From Bloomberg.

“I didn’t pay it,” Di Pardo, 75, said of the levy that was the centerpiece of Monti’s austerity budget. “I get that we are on the edge of failure and disaster, but you can’t keep taking from ordinary people.”

“It’s not a huge amount,” said Dario Castiglia, chief executive officer of real estate broker RE/MAX Italia, which has about 200 agencies in Italy. “It’s just that Italians were used to not having any taxes for three years, and also it’s hitting home right when we’re in the middle of perhaps one of the worst recessions in decades.”

Home sales fell the most in eight years in the first quarter. Italy’s economic growth has lagged the euro-area average for more than a decade and will contract 1.4 percent this year, according to a forecast by the European Commission.

Di Pardo, the Milan lawyer, faces a second IMU instalment of at least 500 euros on his Milan home later this year and said he may eventually pay his full dues, with the required late fees. Still, he has a message for Monti.

“I’m not convinced I’ll pay,” Di Pardo said. “I want to do what I can against this unfair tax.”

Full article here.

Silver to Crash to $15, Then Physical to Rocket Past $1,000 + as Fiat Collapses

by SD Contributor Marshall Swing, Silver Doctors:

It’s about time for me to write my piece on $15 silver and $500 gold, I think.

It seems quite some people get into the market not having the strength to withstand the volatility even though what drew them in was the logic behind the PM story and its validity in time of hyperinflation as a store of wealth.

When silver is $500-$1000 those who sold at $26 will be sorry because they will have nothing in the end after the crash…

It does not matter what happens with the world’s economy, like some are talking, (such as Faber), about commodities crashing with the slowdown in the global economy. When the wealth of the world rushes into gold and silver when there is nothing left it will not matter that PM wealth might have devalued 50-75% in the crash.

Read More @

Is Prepping Worth it? What if Nothing Happens? Is it all a Waste?

by Gaye Levy, Activist Post

Earlier this year, I ran across an blog post on the Directive 21 site that asked the question: What if Nothing Happens? The context was that of prepping. You know what I mean: the time, the expense, the worry, the whole shebang. Is it worth it, and, more to the point, will all of this effort be wasted?

We have six more months for the Doomsday 2012 events to unfold. And now that the end of the Mayan calendar has pretty much been dispelled, what is left?

Read More @ Activist Post

Chart of the Day - US Airways (LCC)

The "Chart of the Day" is US Airways (LCC), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "52-Week High" and "Gap Up" lists. US Airways was one of a limited number of stocks that even closed higher on Thursday as the S&P 500 index fell sharply by -2.23%. US Airways on Thursday posted a new 4-year high of $13.78 and closed up 3.38%. TrendSpotter has been long since May 24 at $12.16. In recent news on the stock, US Airlines on June 14 said that it expects "very strong" Q2 and full-year results and that speculation of its merger with American Airlines when American comes out of bankruptcy is helping its stock price. US Airways, with a market cap of $2 billion, is a major U.S.-based airline carrier with service in the U.S., Canada, Europe, the Caribbean, and Latin America.


US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual forecast previous
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index May -- 0.11
10 am New home sales May 348,000 343,000
9 am Case-Shiller home price index April -- 0.0% nsa
10 am Consumer confidence June 63.5 64.9
8:30 am Durable goods orders May
0.1% 0.0%
10 am Pending home sales May -- -5.5%
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 6-23 385,000 387,000
8:30 am GDP 1Q 1.9% 1.9%
8:30 am Personal income May
0.2% 0.2%
8:30 am Consumer spending May 0.0% 0.3%
8:30 am Core PCE price index May 0.2% 0.1%
9:45 am Chicago PMI June 53.0% 52.7%
9:55 am UMich consumer sentiment June 74.0 74.1

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Financial Time Bombs

June 21, 2012

Steve, where do I begin? Lets start up with the Eurozone and take it from there. I was the first to mention to you that the Spanish Bailout had already happened before it was even announced that they were going to need more within the week. Well a week has passed and it said that both Italy and Spain need an almost $1 Trillion dollar bailout. The reason? Apart from both being insolvent, Italy has to borrow money at 7% to lend to Spain at 3% by edict of the Euro Technocrats via ECB. These morons have the economics understanding of a five year old. Now both countries are heading the way of Greece, which is total economic death as Greece is a failed state, with no government, a stolen election and thousands starving to death.

Steve as I said the Euro is unofficially collapsed with a major "OFFICIAL" collapse coming this fall or winter. I said many times to my cohorts , though the Eurozone has it's problems, it is the US that is the Supreme Emperor with No Clothes the Eurozone are just vassals. The problems facing the US are much, much worse. With very high unemployment, debt to the stratosphere and an economy in rigor mortis, the US is a patient on his death bed waiting for the elite power brokers to give it it's last rights and then devour the patient's body.

Couple of points that, I need to revisit for your readers and listeners are as follows:

1. Real Estate- The real estate, in the US, has in no way hit the bottom--yet. Not in the FEH (Financial Economics Hubs) like New York but I tell you that you will see a housing market crash the likes of which you have never seen or will ever see again. This will occur for the following reasons. (more)


ONEOK, Inc., a diversified energy company, engages in the gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas in the United States. The company operates through three segments: ONEOK Partners, Natural Gas Distribution, and Energy Services. The ONEOK Partners segment is involved in gathering, processing, storing, and transporting natural gas; owns and operates regulated natural gas transmission pipelines, natural gas storage facilities, and natural gas gathering systems for unprocessed natural gas; and owns natural gas liquids systems. This segment offers its services to petrochemical manufacturers, heating-fuel users, refineries, and propane distributors. The Natural Gas Distribution segment provides natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation customers, as well as wholesale and public authority customers. The Energy Services segment offers non-uniform natural gas supply and risk-management services for natural gas and electric utilities, and commercial and industrial customers through its network of leased storage and transportation capacity. ONEOK, Inc. is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

To review ONEOK's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of OKE (ONEOK, Inc.) below with my added notations:

OKE has been trading mostly within a broad, sideways range for the last (6) months. During this time, the stock appears to be finishing up the formation of a Rectangle pattern. Rectangle patterns form when a stock bounces between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. For OKE, the Rectangle pattern formed a clear $40 support (blue) and seems to be pulling away from the $45, 52-week high resistance (black) again.

The Tale of the Tape: OKE has probably formed a very common chart pattern known as a Rectangle. The possible long positions on OKE would be either on a pullback to $40, or on a breakout above $45. The short opportunity would be on a breakdown below $40.

These are the next likely steps toward the "End of America"

One of the things that’s really unique about this part of the world is having access to so many people with first-hand experience of living under Soviet rule.

It’s a bizarre thing to say, but the stories they have to tell are extraordinary.

Last night I had dinner with some friends, including one woman who was just a child at the end of World War II.

She explained to me that her family had been wealthy landowners near the capital city… until the Soviet-controlled government came in, confiscated all of their property, and shipped the adults off to Siberia.

“There were so many opportunities to leave beforehand,” she explained, ”but they just never thought things would ever get that bad here. Everyone saw what happened in other countries, but my family never expected that it would happen to them.” (more)

The Mancession: 16 Signs That This Economic Decline Is Sucking The Life Out Of The American Male

This economic decline has been really hard on everyone, but it has been particularly hard on American men. During the last recession male employment dropped like a rock and it has not recovered much at all since then. That is why many referred to the last recession as a "mancession". Industries where men are disproportionately represented such as construction and manufacturing have really been hit hard in recent years. In the old days, you could take a high school education down to the local factory and get a job that would enable you to live a middle class lifestyle and support a growing family on just that one income. Sadly, those days are long gone. Today, American men live in a world where their labor is not really needed. Wages are falling because almost any worker can be easily replaced by the vast pool of unemployed American workers that are currently searching for work, and a lot of big companies are shifting labor-intensive jobs overseas where workers only make a small fraction of what they make in the United States. American workers (especially those without much education) are considered to be expensive liabilities in a world where labor has become a global commodity. So the percentage of working age American men that have jobs is likely to continue to decline and wages are likely to continue to stagnate as well.

For many men, a long-term bout with unemployment can almost be worse than a major illness. It can be really hard to feel like a man when you don't have a job. Men often see themselves as filling the "provider" role, and when they aren't providing for their families self-esteem can fall through the floor. It is easy to feel worthless when there is no money coming in and your wife and your kids are looking at you with worry every single day.

As you read this, there are millions upon millions of unemployed men sitting at home with a glazed look in their eyes. When you talk with these men, many of them seem as though the life has been sucked right out of them.

As I wrote about recently, when you cannot find a job month after month after month people start to look at you differently. Some start to look at you with pity in their eyes, and others start to look at you with disgust in their eyes.

Most Americans don't really understand how much the economy has fundamentally changed, and many of them still believe that it shouldn't be too difficult to find a job in "the greatest economy on earth". (more)