Thursday, October 24, 2013

The Only Number You Need to Time – and Beat – the Market

It certainly seems as though the political gamesmanship that rules Washington, D.C., also rules the markets. But this isn't really the case.
In fact, there's one single "magic" number that far outweighs everything else when it comes to long-term influence.
This number's predictive power has saved me from some of the steepest market drops of the century, and it's given me everything I need to position myself for maximum gains in bull markets.
And the best part is, it's widely available - access to it costs nothing.
It's how you use this simple number that counts...(more)

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This 'Hated' Sector Offers Great Yields and Catalysts Galore:BBEP, LRE, QRE

When is the best time to focus on a particular industry? When it's deeply out of favor.
Every industry hits the occasional rough patch, which typically leads investors to focus their attention elsewhere. Yet when the rough patch ends, and the skies start to brighten, you have a chance to dig into the group before the crowd returns.

That's precisely the set up in place for a group of companies known as upstream MLPs. These master limited partnerships focus on mature energy fields. These firms don't focus on the early stage of energy exploration, and instead buy mature oil and gas fields that other firms have chosen to sell.

It's an industry known for a lot of deals, as the key players boost sales and replace existing assets that eventually start to post declining output. Nearly $2.5 billion in transactions were completed in 2010, rising to $5.8 billion in 2012, according to Credit Suisse. And investors were expecting even higher amounts of deal-making in 2013 -- until Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE) spoiled the party.  (more)

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Wise Investing Eliminates the Time Question

About this week’s show:
-Dollar velocity at six decade lows
-T-bonds vulnerable to announcement from China
-Who? What? Where? Why? Forget the when
Read | Subscribe@iTunes
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A Great Inflation Is Coming That Will “Shock The World”

from King World News
Today a man who has lived in 18 countries around the world, and witnessed collapses in many of these countries firsthand, told King World News that the globe is now beginning to see some major warning signs that indicate a “Great Inflation” is coming that will “shock the world.” Keith Barron, who consults with major companies around the world and is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in the last quarter century, also spoke about these incredible warning signs and what they mean for key markets such as gold.
Barron: “We are going to see destructive inflation creeping around everywhere. Household goods, groceries, medical costs, insurance, things like that are going to continue to surge in price. So, despite the propaganda, yes, inflation is happening in America and elsewhere….
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BofAML Turns Bullish On Gold

BofAML’s MacNeil Curry is changing his view on gold from bearish to bullish. The impulsive gains from the 1251 low of Oct-15 and break of the two-month downtrend (confirmed on the break of 1330) tells him that a medium-term base and bullish turn is unfolding. BoFAML looks for an ultimate break of the 1433 highs of Aug-28, with potential for a push to 1500/1533 long term resistance. In the next several sessions Curry suggest buying dips into 1309, cautioning that this bullish view is “wrong” if gold breaks below 1251. For those awaiting additional confirmation of a turn, Curry notes you need to see a break of 1375 (Sep-19 high & right shoulder off a multi-month Head and Shoulders Top).
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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG)

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage and risk management services to various commercial, industrial, institutional, and governmental organizations. It operates in two segments, Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage segment primarily consists of retail and wholesale brokerage operations. Its retail brokerage operations negotiate and place property/casualty, employer-provided health and welfare insurance, and retirement solutions primarily for middle-market commercial, industrial, public entity, religious, and not-for-profit entities.. The Risk Management segment offers contract claim settlement and administration services for enterprises that choose to self-insure some or all of their property/casualty coverages, and for insurance companies that choose to outsource some or all of their property/casualty claims departments.
To review Arthur's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) below with my added notations:

CSC had worked its way higher from its $34 bottom in December up until its peak in May. Then, for about (6) months the stock had been stalling at a $45 resistance (red), which was also a 52-week high resistance. Finally, last week AJG broke through that $45 resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: AJG broke out to a new 52-week high and now may be pulling back. A long trade could be made at $45 with a stop placed below that level. A break below $45 would negate the forecast for a continued move higher.
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