Monday, May 6, 2013
How to Trade Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners
How to trade Gold and other precious metals related investments is
not that complex. But you must be willing to wait for price to provide
low risk entry points before getting involved. Precious metals are like
any other investment in respect to trading and investing in them. There
are times when you should be long, times to be in cash and times to be
short (benefit from falling prices).
The key here is for the price to move and hold above the major resistance line. If it can do that then we are looking at a possible breakout to $2600 – $3500 gold. With that being said gold and silver may just be starting a bear market. Depending what the price of gold does when my resistance level is touched, my outlook may change from bullish to bearish.
Also with last weeks economic numbers getting better in the USA I do have concerns that gold may be starting a bear market but we will not know for several more months yet.
The time will come when another major buy or short signal forms and when it does we will be getting involved. The exciting part is that it could be just around the corner.Please share this article
Since 2011 when gold and silver started another major bull market correction the best position has been to move to cash or sell/write options against your positions to protect your investment until the next trend resumes.
If you take a look at the chart below of gold you will notice that in
2008 we had a similar breakdown in price which purged the market of
investors who where long gold. And if you compare the last two
breakdowns they look very much the same. If price holds true then much
higher prices are likely to unfold at the end of 2013.The key here is for the price to move and hold above the major resistance line. If it can do that then we are looking at a possible breakout to $2600 – $3500 gold. With that being said gold and silver may just be starting a bear market. Depending what the price of gold does when my resistance level is touched, my outlook may change from bullish to bearish.
Also with last weeks economic numbers getting better in the USA I do have concerns that gold may be starting a bear market but we will not know for several more months yet.
How to Trade Gold Daily Technical Chart:
Major technical damage has been done to the chart of gold. This can be seen as bullish or bearish price action but until price and volume pattern unfolds which puts the odds on the bullish or bearish side I remain neutral.
How to Trade Silver Daily Technical Chart:
Silver is in the same position as gold. The question is if this is a shakeout or breakdown…
How to Trade Gold Mining Stocks Monthly Chart:
Gold mining stocks
broke down a couple months ago and continue to sell off. If precious
metals continue to move lower then mining stocks will continue their
journey down. The chart below made in February and it has in most part
played out as expected. While I do not try to pick bottoms (catch
falling knives) I do like to watch for them so I am prepared for a new
position when the time and chart become bullish.
How to Trade Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks Conclusion:
In short, precious metals continue to be in a down trend. While they look to be trying to bottom it is important to remember that the largest moves take place in the last 10% of a trend. So we may be close to a bottom but there could be sharply lower prices yet.The time will come when another major buy or short signal forms and when it does we will be getting involved. The exciting part is that it could be just around the corner.Please share this article
Technician Stan Weinstein: Still A Bullish Outlook For Stocks
by James J Puplava CFP
Financial Sense
Jim
is pleased to welcome back technician Stan Weinstein, editor and
publisher of the “Global Trend Alert,” a financial advisory service for
institutional investors. Stan sees the possibility of a short-term
correction, but believes the current rally has more legs, given that the
S&P closed above 1600 on Friday. Stan is still clearly bullish in
his outlook, and also notes the rapid sector rotations. If we get a
correction, he believes it will be a controlled correction. Stan is
neutral on bonds, and negative on gold, at least for the next few
months. Also in this segment, Chris Puplava gives his macro outlook for
the second half of this year, Erik Townsend looks at commodities, and
Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Financial Sense
Jim
is pleased to welcome back technician Stan Weinstein, editor and
publisher of the “Global Trend Alert,” a financial advisory service for
institutional investors. Stan sees the possibility of a short-term
correction, but believes the current rally has more legs, given that the
S&P closed above 1600 on Friday. Stan is still clearly bullish in
his outlook, and also notes the rapid sector rotations. If we get a
correction, he believes it will be a controlled correction. Stan is
neutral on bonds, and negative on gold, at least for the next few
months. Also in this segment, Chris Puplava gives his macro outlook for
the second half of this year, Erik Townsend looks at commodities, and
Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.Click Here to Listen to the AudioPlease share this article
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF)
Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a
specialty retailer of casual apparel for men, women, and kids. It
operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Stores, and
Direct-to-Consumer. The company sells various products, including casual
sportswear apparel comprising knit and woven shirts, graphic T-shirts,
fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal
care products; and accessories for men, women, and kids under the
Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids, and Hollister brand names. It
also offers bras, underwear, personal care products, sleepwear, and
at-home products for girls under the Gilly Hicks brand. As of February
2, 2013, the company operated 912 stores in the United States and 139
stores internationally. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. sells its products
through its stores and direct-to-consumer sales. The company was founded
in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.
To review Abercrombie's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Co.) below with my added notations:
About a month ago I wrote an article about ANF forming a head and
shoulders pattern, but since then the stock seems to have moved into a
common pattern known as a rectangle. Rectangle patterns form when a
stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A
minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests
of the resistance will give you the pattern. ANF's rectangle pattern
has formed a $50 resistance (red) and a $45 support (blue).
The Tale of the Tape: ANF has formed a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $45, or on a breakout above $50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $45.
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To review Abercrombie's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Co.) below with my added notations:
About a month ago I wrote an article about ANF forming a head and
shoulders pattern, but since then the stock seems to have moved into a
common pattern known as a rectangle. Rectangle patterns form when a
stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A
minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests
of the resistance will give you the pattern. ANF's rectangle pattern
has formed a $50 resistance (red) and a $45 support (blue).The Tale of the Tape: ANF has formed a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $45, or on a breakout above $50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $45.
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High Supply and Weak Demand Impacting Crude
Crude oil inventories skyrocketed in an announcement today and it
sent crude crashing by as much as $3 at the lows of the session. This
was the largest weekly increase since September and it puts inventories
at an all-time high. The announcement was further evidence that a
combination of higher supply and weaker demand is having an impact.
This is also the general theme across the commodity space, demand is
weak and pricing is beginning to reflect this. We’re all so fixated on
the FED’s impact that we might not be focusing on the right (demand
destruction) issue.
Whenever you receive surprising announcements like this which favor the trend of the current Cycle, you generally will end up with larger moves in the price. My Cycle count has Crude on Week 24 and a Daily Cycle that was more than ready to roll over to form a Left Translated Cycle. The evidence or confirmation of a LT Daily Cycle has yet to present itself, but I feel that the reaction to this news (while the Dollar was dropping) was exactly how I expected Crude to react at this stage of its Cycle.
So we will need to see if there is downside follow through tomorrow. Another fall tomorrow would confirm the 10dma is lost and a pattern of lower highs will remain in play. That pattern projects one deeper low to come, which obviously in my opinion will be the eventual ICL. If we’re to form a deeper ICL, then we should look for a rapid decline down towards the $82-84 level.
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Whenever you receive surprising announcements like this which favor the trend of the current Cycle, you generally will end up with larger moves in the price. My Cycle count has Crude on Week 24 and a Daily Cycle that was more than ready to roll over to form a Left Translated Cycle. The evidence or confirmation of a LT Daily Cycle has yet to present itself, but I feel that the reaction to this news (while the Dollar was dropping) was exactly how I expected Crude to react at this stage of its Cycle.
So we will need to see if there is downside follow through tomorrow. Another fall tomorrow would confirm the 10dma is lost and a pattern of lower highs will remain in play. That pattern projects one deeper low to come, which obviously in my opinion will be the eventual ICL. If we’re to form a deeper ICL, then we should look for a rapid decline down towards the $82-84 level.
Investor Cycle Trading Strategy – CRUDE OIL
Crude has reversed lower as I’ve been expecting, now its matter of seeing follow through to the downside as this Daily Cycle should form Left Translated and decline over the next few weeks. If last week’s highs are re-tested and taken out, then it’s likely that the Investor Cycle count is incorrect; I don’t believe new Cycle highs should be made now.Please share this article
Fed Induced Stock Market Mania
by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan Norcini
After
watching the effects of the mediocre payrolls number yesterday (Friday)
which culminated in a push over 1600 in the S&P 500 and a print in
the Dow over 15,000, I thought it might be useful to note a few things
about this most recent example of a hysteria.
I am on record here as stating that the entire stock market rally is nothing but a Federal Reserve induced bubble brought about by artificially low interest rates starving investors for yield elsewhere. The Fed, along with the Bank of Japan and the ECB I might add, are determined to corral investors and herd them, unthinking like cattle, into equities; the goal being to create an atmosphere of general euphoria towards the economy boosting consumer confidence in the hopes of inducing them to take on more debt and spend.
Continue Reading at TraderDanNorcini.Blogspot.ca…
Please share this article
Trader Dan Norcini
After
watching the effects of the mediocre payrolls number yesterday (Friday)
which culminated in a push over 1600 in the S&P 500 and a print in
the Dow over 15,000, I thought it might be useful to note a few things
about this most recent example of a hysteria.I am on record here as stating that the entire stock market rally is nothing but a Federal Reserve induced bubble brought about by artificially low interest rates starving investors for yield elsewhere. The Fed, along with the Bank of Japan and the ECB I might add, are determined to corral investors and herd them, unthinking like cattle, into equities; the goal being to create an atmosphere of general euphoria towards the economy boosting consumer confidence in the hopes of inducing them to take on more debt and spend.
Continue Reading at TraderDanNorcini.Blogspot.ca…
Please share this article
US Weekly Economic Calendar
| time (et) | report | period | Actual | CONSENSUS forecast |
previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, MAY 6 | |||||
| 2 pm | Senior loan officer survey | 1Q | -- | -- | |
| TUESDAY, may 7 | |||||
| 10 am | Job openings | March | -- | 3.9 mln | |
| 3 pm | Consumer credit | March | -- | $18 bln | |
| WEDNESDAY, MAY 8 | |||||
| None scheduled | |||||
| THURSDAY may 9 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | 5/4 | 337,000 | 324,000 | |
| 10 am | Wholesale inventories | March | -- | -0.3% | |
| FRIDAY, MAY 10 | |||||
| 2 pm | Federal budget | April | -- | $59 billion | |
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