The Dollar looks to have put in a DCL right in the timing band. The
12 day decline into the low has more than provided the consolidation
needed to confirm the low and recharge the Cycle. This was fairly
evident today with the Dollar rocketing out of its Cycle Low with an
impressive 0.80 move.
The Dollar is an interesting Cycle to study here because there are
some varying scenarios that could be unfolding. Firstly, it’s pretty
clear on the chart that the Dollar is sporting a Daily Cycle failure.
Typically such a failure means that the dominant Cycle is now in
decline, in this case it’s the Investor Cycle. This isn’t an
unreasonable expectation; the Investor Cycle is on Week 11 and in the
timing band for a top.
It’s important to understand that a
Cycle failure does not have to mean a Cycle in decline though.
Generally they are telling of future weak price action, but there are no
hard and fast rules in Cycles around these failures. So for this
reason, an Investor Cycle decline does not need to occur imminently or
from a new Left Translated Cycle.
But at this point with a Daily Cycle failure and a Week 11 Investor
Cycle, we should be on the lookout for a new Cycle that tops fairly
early. The logical top or turn would be after a move to a double top
(83.50) or a quick burst to new highs.
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