Saturday, February 28, 2015

Outlook for December 15 Corn Futures

As the winter moves on towards Spring and U.S. farmers begin to gear up for the 2015 planting season, my sense is there is very little downside price risk to new crop corn futures over the next couple of months.  Over the past six weeks December 2015 corn futures have traded in a sideways pattern between $4.00 and $4.20 per bu.  This is the lowest level for December futures during this period since 2010.  Granted there are valid reasons for prices to be this low relative to recent years.  Following last year's record yield and record production, U.S. corn supplies are currently projected to exceed 1.8 billion bu. by the time new crop supplies are available this fall, a nine year high. In addition, global stocks are expected to build to nearly 190 million metric tons, which is a 15 year high. (more)

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