Via Gavekal Capital blog,
Over the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient.
Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long
bond rates have been near a peak. Over the last few weeks the
commercials have shifted their positioning dramatically, moving from one
of the largest short positions to a net long position for the first
time in almost a year.
If history is a guide then we may be near an intermediate term peak in rates.
Please share this article