In 2010 and through the midway point of 2011, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was one of the best stocks to own. The shares surged an incredible 450% from January 2010 through their peak in July 2011.
I remember at one point during that time, my gardener asked me if he should buy Netflix shares. That was the first sign that the stock was in for some pain down the road, because in this game, when the "man on the street" is raving about a stock, you know it's time for the smart money to bank profits and head for the exits.
In Netflix's case, it was really painful, as a series of earnings disappointments, analyst downgrades, business model changes and the Qwikster debacle kept a flood of agony raining down upon the shares from the middle of 2011 until just about a week ago.
Slowing profits, programming misses, original content gambles and, of course, BIG competitive headwinds from the likes of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and even Coinstar's (NASDAQ: CSTR) Redbox DVD rental outlet, all could end up sinking NFLX in the years to come. Yet even if you agree with this thesis on principle, as I am inclined to do, there's no denying the incredibly bullish trading action in the shares of late.
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