2013 Expectations

thedailybell.com / By Andrew Hoffman /
In last December’s “2012 EXPECTATIONS,” I expressed reluctance to predict near-term events.  Frankly, I find most “year-ahead” forecasts to be USELESS; particularly when utilized as marketing tools rather than honest thought pieces.  I feel no differently of this age-old rite of the financial industry; so again, I am caveating my “forecast” with the following disclaimer…

I mean, who knows what will happen?  There are simply too many moving parts to gauge, as the global economy is a ‘living system’ comprised of volatile, unpredictable human beings and – in today’s world – increasingly dangerous computer algorithms capable of reeking incomprehensible damage by accident.  Throw in the wrath of Mother Nature – who in recent years has been on the warpath; and the largest unknown of all – collective human confidence – and such forecasts become comical at best.
Nearly all “2013 forecasts” I’ve read thus far are simple extrapolations of what we see today; a psychological trait common to all human activity, particularly in financial markets where for centuries investors have ‘bought high and sold low’ – following the near-term trend instead of understanding the bigger picture.
Given these constraints, and exponential growth in government market intervention – both OVERT and COVERT; I will not attempt any wild predictions – “pulled out of my arse,” as some might say.  Instead, I will cite general trends that I expect to continue, if not accelerate, in the coming 12 months.  Forgive me if I too, fall victim to the “extrapolation bias.”

That said, I reviewed my 2012 forecasts and found them to be pretty close to reality – by essentially ALL metrics – per the bullet points below…

1. The European debt crisis will dramatically deteriorate
2. The U.S. Economy will weaken­  
3. “Global QE” will become increasingly OVERT
4. Gold will rise for the 12th straight year  
5. Gold will not remain below its 200 DMA for long
6. The gold/silver ratio will decline
7. Market volatility will EXPLODE  
8. Survivalism” will grow, worldwide
9. The 2012 U.S. elections will break all records of campaign contributions, lies, smear campaigns, and SURPRISES
10. Most investments will be deadly

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