Is Corn Ripe for a Bounce?

The corn market is balancing several factors as we move towards the US planting season. On one hand, we have the bearish factors of a record global corn crop and the largest year ending stocks since 2001. On the other hand, we are witnessing a rapid and sustained growth in exports along with weather complications taking their toll on South American supplies. Given the technical and seasonal factors at play in this market, I think we have finally put in the post-2013 harvest lows and could continue higher into the planting season.
The corn market, particularly here in the US, has been beaten down in the fields and in the papers since the 2012 highs above $7. The corn market has declined by more than 45% since those highs and is now trading around $4.40 per bushel. This past summer's growing conditions turned out wonderful after a late start, and combined with the largest acreage planted since 1936, the resulting record harvest was no surprise. I'm willing to bet that we'll see fewer acres allotted to corn this year after five straight years of acreage growth and increasing South American competition on the world market. (more)

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