Twitter $TWTR, Aerie Pharmaceuticals $AERI, Arena Pharma $ARNA

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) had a strong bullish momentum on Friday after Steve Ballmer reveals 4% stake. The stock closed the day with a gain of 4.85 per cent at 31.15 on strong volume after touching the day's high of 31.40. From a technical standpoint, the bias is bullish in nearest term. Key resistance is seen at 31.50. A clear break and daily close above this area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 33.51 or higher. The stock stayed above the 50-day EMA and the MACD and RSI still in buy mode. Long setup.

Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AERI) attempted to push lower on Friday bottomed at 20.50 but quickly whipsawed to the upside and closed slightly below the key resistance zone. A clear break and consistent movement above the 21.43 level next week could trigger further bullish pressure testing the 25.50 area. MACD is about to trigger a new buy signal with Slow Stochastic pointing upwards. Long setup on watch.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) Will watch to see if it can break this horizontal resistance line next week. Key momentum indicators are trending in a positive direction. The bias remains bullish but the 2.54 area needs to be clearly broken to the upside to continue the bullish scenario. The immediate support is seen around 2.24/2.26.

Discovery Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: DISCK)

Discovery Communications, Inc. operates as a media company. The company operates through U.S. Networks; International Networks; and Education and Other segments. The company owns and operates television networks under the brands, such as Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet, Investigation Discovery, Science, Velocity, Discovery Family, American Heroes, Destination America, Discovery Life, Oprah Winfrey network, Eurosport, DMAX, and Discovery Kids. Its content spans genres, including survival, exploration, sports, lifestyle, general entertainment, heroes, adventure, crime and investigation, health, and kids. The company also distributes content across various platforms, such as brand-aligned Websites, Web-native networks, on-line streaming, mobile devices, video on demand (VOD), and broadband channels; and operates radio stations and Websites.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Discovery (NASDAQ: DISCK) below with the added notations:

DISCK has been taking gradual steps lower throughout the past year. Along the way, the $28 price level (purple) has become very important to the stock, specifically over the past 9 months. Not only was $28 a key support back in January and May, that level has also been hit as resistance a couple of times in August.

The Tale of the Tape: DISCK has a key level at $28. A trader could enter a long position on a break above $28 with a stop placed under the level. However, if traders are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made instead at the $28 resistance.

Philip Morris Intl. Inc. (PM)

Company Profile: Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, other tobacco products, and other nicotine-containing products. Its portfolio of brands comprise Marlboro, Merit, Parliament, Virginia Slims, L&M, Chesterfield, Bond Street, Lark, Muratti, Next, Philip Morris, and Red & White. 

Fundamentals:
Trailing P/E: 18.89
Forward P/E: 18.64
EPS: 4.65
Beta: 1.048
PEG: 4.98
P/S: 4.83
Profit Margin: 26.22%
Operating Margin: 40.89%
ROA: 20.93%
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -9.90%
Current Ratio: 1.00

Additional fundamental data: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PM

Technicals:
Recently broke out of a 28-month consolidation
New 52-week high
New all-time high
Buying momentum is positive and rising
Buying volume is neutral
Accumulation is rising and at a 5-year high
PM is outperforming the S&P 500 since July 2015
Support is at $86

The safety stop is at $84

The target is at $100

Note: If PM moves past the target, we suggest using a 3% trailing stop.

Gold Forecast: Time For A Top And Then Another Drop

In this updated gold price forecast, we will look at short, intermediate and long-term gold price targets. I also have a silver price forecast explaining the possibilities of a $300 price target for silver and how I plan to turn precious metal profits into lasting wealth. Our unique approach combines cycles work with technical analysis to give estimated market timing and potential target areas. Current indicators suggest the gold price is close to forming a top and once formed prices should head lower into a biannual cycle low by year end. In the remainder of this exclusive gold forecast we will focus on various price charts and give brief summaries of the present technical environment.

Since this correction began in 2011, prices have stayed in somewhat of a predictable pattern. This pattern includes gold prices forming biannual cycle tops within certain time parameters and prices holding to specific moving averages. The daily chart pictured below shows prices are now attacking the downward sloping 200-day moving average (pink line at $1,176.29). Gold prices have struggled with the 200-day moving average and therefore, this seems like a potential termination area. If prices close above $1,206 for more than two days in a row, I will be forced recalculate the target area. Our premium newsletter is focused on identifying topping patterns and we will alert subscribers once confirmed. Note: The slow stochastics indicator (shown above the price) is in overbought territory, a crossover from this area has often signaled the biannual cycle top.  (more)

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	ACTUAL	forecast	previous
MONDAY, OCT. 19
10 am	Home builders' index	Oct.		62	62
TUESDAY,  OCT. 20
8:30 am	Housing starts	Sept.		1.141 mln	1.126 mln
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 21
	None scheduled
THURSDAY, OCT. 22
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	Oct. 10		265,000	255,000
10 am	Existing home sales	Sept.		5.33 mln	5.31 mln
FRIDAY, OCT. 23
	None scheduled

Corn: Buy or Sell?

From a ‘30 year cycle’ point of view, corn is starting to look very interesting.  While it could still take several weeks to see if corn will bottom above the 360 price level,  this is a market that could offer a low risk/high reward trading opportunity if the October 2015 corn pattern continues ‘shadowing’ the October 1985 corn pattern.  As highlighted on the first chart below, corn bottomed in October 1985 and then rallied into December 1985:

December 1985 daily corn chart

December 1985 corn futures reached an initial low on Sept 4  that was tested the following week.  As the chart shows, following the re-test of the Sept 4 low corn rallied and - over the next two weeks - was able to trade back up above the 10 and 13 day EMA’s.  Also noteworthy is at that time corn was bottoming,  the 10 and 13 day EMA’s (red/green lines) were positioned below the 55 day EMA (blue line) and corn was trading below all three EMA’s.(more)

The Stock Market $NYSE is Overbought

The stock market is even more overbought today than it was last week.

Over the past two weeks, we saw the S&P 500 rally as much as 7.5%. That's a remarkable move. And the proverbial rubber band is now stretched far to the upside.

It can stretch further. Overbought conditions can get even more overbought.

But the odds are against it...

Too many technical indicators are now at levels that often coincide with a short-term top in the stock market.

For example, take a look at the charts below. They show the McClellan Oscillators for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq at Friday's close...

The McClellan Oscillator is an indicator of overbought and oversold conditions. It's generally considered to be oversold when it falls to less than -60. It's overbought when it rallies to more than 60.

As you can see from the charts, both the NYSE and the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillators closed Friday at the most overbought readings of the year.

And the Volatility Index (VIX), a contrary measure of investor sentiment, has collapsed from where it was a few weeks ago...

The VIX closed Monday at 16.17 – just a fraction higher than its lower Bollinger Band. This represents an extreme move to the downside.

The VIX often rallies off of this sort of oversold condition. And a strong rally in the VIX is usually accompanied by a strong decline in the broad stock market.

The stock market has held up well since I turned cautious on it last week. But with so many technical indicators at levels that often precede a broad stock market decline, it's hard to argue that the market is headed even higher in the near term.

Traders need to be cautious here. Tighten your stops. Trim your profits. And brace yourself for a big move to the downside.