| time (et) | report | period | Actual | CONSENSUS forecast |
previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, JULY 1 | |||||
| 8:58 am | Markit PMI | June | -- | 52.2 | |
| 10 am | ISM | June | 50.6% | 49.0% | |
| 10 am | Construction spending | May | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| TUESDAY, JULY 2 | |||||
| 10 am | Factory orders | May | 1.9% | 1.0% | |
| TBA | Motor vehicle sales | June | 15.4 mln | 15.3 mln | |
| WEDNESDAY, JULY 3 | |||||
| 8:15 am | ADP employment | June | -- | 136,000 | |
| 8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | 6-29 | 350,000 | 346,000 | |
| 8:30 am | Trade deficit | May | -$40.2 bln | -$40.3 bln | |
| 10 am | ISM nonmanufacturing | June | 54.2% | 53.7% | |
| THURSDAY, JULY 4 | |||||
| Independence
Day None scheduled |
|||||
| FRIDAY, JULY 5 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Nonfarm payrolls | June | 155,000 | 175,000 | |
| 8:30 am | Unemployment rate | June | 7.6% | 7.6% | |
Monday, July 1, 2013
US Weekly economic Calendar
Saturday, June 29, 2013
China's "Dr. Doom": The Chinese bubble is about to burst
Chinese investors are holding their collective breaths to see if the
banking crisis predicted two years ago by renowned Chinese economist Li
Zuojun will come to fruition in the next couple of months. Li's
astounding accuracy in predicting China's economy has led to him earning
the nickname "China's most successful doomsayer."
Though far from perfect, a lot of what he said here rings true. But the interesting insight is that he forecasts that the incoming regime will want to take its lumps early, in 2013, so as to minimize blame ("it was the old crew's fault") and maximize praise for subsequent recovery...
He notes three other drivers (aside from this political one) including external flows and credit expansion, and fears social instability should the status quo be maintained...
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Though far from perfect, a lot of what he said here rings true. But the interesting insight is that he forecasts that the incoming regime will want to take its lumps early, in 2013, so as to minimize blame ("it was the old crew's fault") and maximize praise for subsequent recovery...
He notes three other drivers (aside from this political one) including external flows and credit expansion, and fears social instability should the status quo be maintained...
Read full article...
Please share this article
Here’s How to Play America’s Energy Boom
For years, the United States was
known for being the world's largest energy-consuming nation, with
imports from abroad making up for its inability to produce enough fuels
for its appetite. Now, the U.S. is entering an energy renaissance, one that's leading to a marked shift in that position.
The International Energy Agency recently predicted
America's oil production will exceed Saudi Arabia's output by 2017, and
three years after that, it's expected to be a net natural gas exporter.
Major oil finds in California, North Dakota, Texas and Pennsylvania have
already put the country on a course toward energy independence, and
even more energy fields have yet to be proved out. Developing these new
resources and the infrastructure to transport, process and deliver this energy could take decades. Along the way, the biggest benefactor may well be master limited partnerships, or MLPs.
MLPs build, own and operate the
pipelines, barges, railcars and storage tanks to deliver natural
resources, and the opportunity in front of them is potentially massive.
In February, U.S. News & World Report quoted an investor who
estimated that more than $300 billon
of new infrastructure development is needed within the next decade to
accommodate the energy boon. For some time, this wasn't widely
recognized -- Warren Buffett bought railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $26 billion a few years ago partly for this reason -- but that's changing. (more)
Shiller: a rare, honest economist, admits what most financial types never will
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How To Invest: Learn To Spot The Double-Bottom Base
The double-bottom base reflects an investor's harshest emotions:
crushing disappointment, capitulation and humiliation. If you can spot
this pattern, you can add jubilation to that list.
A double-bottom base looks like a "W" with a slightly lower right side than left side. That second bottom should undercut the first.
Why? That's where the market makes a fool out of us, flush ing folks out of a perfectly good stock before making its bull run.
Here's
what you need to see. First, the stock declines. Then it rebounds, but
not as high as the point where the first decline started. This is where
the feeling of hope surges that your stock is a winner.
Then it falls again. Many holders, losing patience with the stock, will bail out if it makes a new low. The next thing you know, it takes out that first bottom. So far all you have is a stock that's falling, and a lot of broken hearts.
But if the stock then reverses higher in increasing volume, you have the makings of a double bottom.
Crucially important, the apex of the "W" must stand above the 10-week moving average. It also must appear in the upper half of the entire structure.
If your double-bottom candidate fails to meet these two criteria, it's flawed. The all-important inflection point — the apex — is so low that any rush to buy would still be met by older longs grateful for a way out of a bad position.
Avid Technology (AVID) — a developer of software and hardware for digital movie production — built a classic in 2003. The first down leg appeared from Jan. 7 to Jan. 27, with the stock falling 22% to 18.76. (1)
The stock bounced to 23.46 by Feb. 11 (2) — above the 10-week line and, you'll see later, in the upper half of the entire yet-to-be-finished structure (although you don't know that yet).
Then came the second down leg, which took out the first by two full points and bottomed out March 7. (3) Other than an upside reversal with colossal volume, there's no reason to believe Avid would find any support at the second bottom's neighborhood. After all, it was sitting below the moving averages and as much as 31% below its 52-week peak.
Still, it started to rise. The stock showed significant volume on the upside. Still, you shouldn't get excited unless and until it takes out that apex price — 23.46 — plus a dime. As with all base breakouts, look for confirmation in the form of a volume surge.
Such confirmation didn't appear the first time Avid hit that apex, on March 26. The stock's feeble attempt fizzled.
But April 2 saw the stock soar 11% in double-paced trade (see a daily chart). That move proved to be the start of a run that lasted six months, and saw the stock rally 154% to as high as 59.77.
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A double-bottom base looks like a "W" with a slightly lower right side than left side. That second bottom should undercut the first.
Why? That's where the market makes a fool out of us, flush ing folks out of a perfectly good stock before making its bull run.
Then it falls again. Many holders, losing patience with the stock, will bail out if it makes a new low. The next thing you know, it takes out that first bottom. So far all you have is a stock that's falling, and a lot of broken hearts.
But if the stock then reverses higher in increasing volume, you have the makings of a double bottom.
Crucially important, the apex of the "W" must stand above the 10-week moving average. It also must appear in the upper half of the entire structure.
If your double-bottom candidate fails to meet these two criteria, it's flawed. The all-important inflection point — the apex — is so low that any rush to buy would still be met by older longs grateful for a way out of a bad position.
Avid Technology (AVID) — a developer of software and hardware for digital movie production — built a classic in 2003. The first down leg appeared from Jan. 7 to Jan. 27, with the stock falling 22% to 18.76. (1)
The stock bounced to 23.46 by Feb. 11 (2) — above the 10-week line and, you'll see later, in the upper half of the entire yet-to-be-finished structure (although you don't know that yet).
Then came the second down leg, which took out the first by two full points and bottomed out March 7. (3) Other than an upside reversal with colossal volume, there's no reason to believe Avid would find any support at the second bottom's neighborhood. After all, it was sitting below the moving averages and as much as 31% below its 52-week peak.
Still, it started to rise. The stock showed significant volume on the upside. Still, you shouldn't get excited unless and until it takes out that apex price — 23.46 — plus a dime. As with all base breakouts, look for confirmation in the form of a volume surge.
Such confirmation didn't appear the first time Avid hit that apex, on March 26. The stock's feeble attempt fizzled.
But April 2 saw the stock soar 11% in double-paced trade (see a daily chart). That move proved to be the start of a run that lasted six months, and saw the stock rally 154% to as high as 59.77.
Please share this article
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