Emerging Market Currencies Under Pressure

traderdannorcini.blogspot.com / By Dan Norcini / September 29, 2014
If one just looks at the Major Currency pairs and sees the Dollar a bit weaker this morning, it is very easy to overlook at what has been happening in some of the Emerging Market currencies. It goes back to that same interest rate differential and the fact that there is concern about slowing global growth, especially in some of these emerging markets. I should also note that there has been a large carry trade involved here as well.
I want to post a chart of the Brazilian Real for the benefit of grain traders and hog traders.
Please note that the currency just made a 6 year low against the US Dollar. Brazilian grain and Brazilian pork are dirt cheap on the global markets compared to US grains and US pork. Most US based grain traders have been in the past, and remain oblivious to such things.
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Swing Trading Watch-List: SUNE, AAL, GTAT, LULU, TSL

swing-trading watch-list:

Short SunEdison (SUNE)

Short American Airlines (AAL) 

Short GT Advanced Technologies

Long lululemon athletica (LULU)

Long Trina Solar (TSL)

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How to Snap Up Growing Energy Services Companies

The Energy Report: Are oil and gas field services in Canada a high growth sector?

Russell Stanley: Energy prices drive oil and gas field construction and infrastructure development in western Canada. Other drivers include the need to build out liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities and rail facilities.
Jennings Capital targets service companies with market caps in the $50 to $200 million ($50–200M) range. These names tend to have fewer analysts following than do the larger names. We like companies that rent out niche-type equipment at high margins. These firms are typically low headcount businesses with a lot of operating leverage. Oil and gas field demand is so strong that these companies must source equipment externally to extend their fleets and meet commitments. (more)

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Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc (NYSE: RHP)

Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. owns and operates hotels in the United States. Its Hospitality segment operates a network of meetings-focused resorts. The company’s Opry and Attractions segment owns and operates Nashville-based tourist attractions, including the Grand Ole Opry, a live country music show; the Ryman Auditorium, a venue with approximately 2,300 seats for concerts and musical productions; the General Jackson Showboat, a 300-foot, four-deck paddle wheel showboat on the Cumberland river; the Gaylord Springs Golf Links, a clubhouse, which provides meeting space for approximately 500 guests; and the Wildhorse Saloon, a country music performance venue. This segment also operates WSM-AM, a radio broadcasting station. Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Ryman (NYSE: RHP) with my added notations:

RHP has been trading in a sideways range for the last 3 months. During that period of time the stock has formed a resistance around $50 (blue). In addition, the stock has also created a clear level of support near $46 (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels created by RHP’s trading range.

The Tale of the Tape: RHP has a level of support at $46 and a resistance at $50. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $46, or on a breakout above $50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $46.
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Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: LEIs Signaling a Soft Patch Ahead

Also, “Paid to Adapt, Not Forecast”

BIG PICTURE09/27/2014
Jim’s first Big Picture topic is about the Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs) and why they are signaling a soft patch ahead. They indicate weakness in housing, mortgage applications and durable goods. Jim discusses the reasons behind the soft patch and why it will likely be temporary.
Click Here To Listen
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"The Big One Is Coming" - V The Guerrilla Economist Exclusive

For all of our readers and listeners who have been waiting for an update from 'V the Guerrilla Economist', Live Free or Die and myself had the opportunity Friday night to interview the man who has been WAY ahead of the game for a long time now, his warnings and predictions eerily accurate, and what he shared with us is the kind of information that we have all been waiting for.

"V" begins by updating us on recent information that he has received from his 4-Star General source and warns that events are still on schedule, a schedule that he previously warned would leave the US dollar 'undermined' by 2015 and the US ceasing to exist as a nation by 2017. While millions of Americans believe that 'those running the show' are bumbling and stumbling idiots, "V" refutes that argument by telling us that for them, things are going exactly according to plans.

The process of undermining the US dollar is well on schedule as well; more than 105 countries have decided that the dollar no longer works for them, joining Russia, China and other BRICS nations in leaving the dollar as the entire world comes to the realization that America's leaders are insane. Their recklessness and evil ways have left tremendous shame upon our nation.

Though there has been much manipulation and propping up, but that is only setting us up for the inevitable 'massive crash'. They're getting ready to 'bring in the chaos' we are warned, as well as informing us "the big one is coming," and before they are done, a 'Mad Max'/'Road Warrior' scenario isn't totally out of the picture. Between bio-weapons unleashed upon America after the collapse that may leave 25 million Americans dead within days, "V" moves on to the signs that we should be looking for as the end comes closer.

In the portion where "V" describes his interactions with the General, we get a very clear, disturbing glimpse into how the US Government plans to deal with the "chaos" that is coming and it will chill you to the bone as he describes what was asked of, and offered to the General, and the General's visceral reaction.

(Note- Towards the end of the Skype interview sounds issues developed and despite everybody rebooting and reconnecting. those issues continued until we had to call a halt, but we are assured that V will return for another, soon)
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Mind The Margin Accounts: Investor Net Worth Plunging At Record Pace

Continuing on with the valuation theme, there are a couple of additional “market” indicators that are also at or above dot-com levels. While not strictly a valuation technique, the level of margin debt and really customer net worth gives us an insight into one aspect of multiple expansion. Margin debt for FINRA accounts (which includes both NYSE and what used to be NASD members) has been somewhat flat since earlier in 2014.

However, the balance of net worth has proceeded further negative, doing so at a pace that far exceeds anything ever seen before. (more)
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Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. The company operates in multiple segments including Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Power Systems and Financial Products.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) below with my added notations:

Over the last 6 months CAT has created a key level of support at $100 (red), and that $100 level is also the “neckline” support for CAT’s head and shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern. Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (blue). This pattern implies an eventual breakdown for the stock.
Remember, patterns such as an H&S need to confirm to have the meaning that they imply. Confirmation of the H&S would occur if CAT were to break below its $100 support.

The Tale of the Tape: CAT seems to have formed a head & shoulders pattern. Although a long trade could be made at $100, the pattern points towards a break lower. A short trade could be entered on a solid move below the $100 “neckline” support, with a stop placed above that level.
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KWN SPECIAL: GOLD & SILVER SMASH, WHAT’S NEXT & MUCH MORE – Dr. Stephen Leeb:

kingworldnews.com / Sunday, September 28, 2014
PLEASE CLICK ON PICTURE TO LISTEN TO THIS EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	Actual	CONSENSUS forecast	previous
MONDAY, SEPT. 29
8:30 am	Personal income	Aug.		0.3%	0.2%
8:30 am	Consumer spending	Aug.		0.4%	-0.1%
8:30 am	Core PCE price index	Aug.		0.0%	-0.1%
9 am	Charles Evans speech
TUESDAY, SEPT. 30
9:45 am	Chicago PMI	Sept.		62.9	64.3
10 am	Consumer confidence index	Sept.		92.9	92.4
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 1
10 am	ISM	Sept.		58.1%	59.0%
10 am	Construction spending	Aug.		0.1%	1.8%
TBA	Motor vehicle sales	Sept.		16.7 mln	17.5 mln
THURSDAY, OCT. 2
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	Sept. 20		299,000	293,000
10 am	Factory orders	Aug.		-9.3%	10.5%
7;45 pm	James Bullard speech
FRIDAY, OCT. 3
8:30 am	Nonfarm payrolls	Sept.		220,000	142,000
8:30 am	Unemployment rate	Sept.		6.0%	6.1%
8:30 am	Trade deficit	Aug.		-$41.0 bln	-$40.5 bln
10 am	ISM nonmanufacturing	Sept.		58.5%	59.6%

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Shale Boom Will Not Last

Natural gas and oil prices have been falling off a cliff.
This was expected, and it's the reason I've been shy on oil and gas in my stock advisory services for a few months now.
Natural gas has fallen from above $6.00/mmBtu in February to below $4.00 this month. Gas prices were around this price last September... and quickly added 80% over the next few months.

Oil prices haven't been this low, currently trading around $90/barrel, since January. (more)
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Andrew Maguire: Stunning 650 Tons Of Gold Bought In Takedown

kingworldnews.com / September 26, 2014
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that a stunning 650 tons of physical gold has been purchased by sovereigns and central banks during the recent takedown in the gold market.  Below is what London metals trader Maguire had to say in Part I of a series of interviews that will be released today on KWN.

Eric King:  “Since gold exited the $1,300s in the third week of August (just over one month ago), how much physical gold has been purchased by sovereigns and central banks?”

Maguire:  “A good example was yesterday, and that (21 tons of physical gold buying) was slightly more visible because the name was known….

Continue reading the Andrew Maguire interview below…

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Anything and Everything About the Mining Sector: Jason Stevens

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Is Japan on the Road to Default?

from The Daily Bell

Japan’s Debt Trap … Japan’s government has a lot of debt. Not as much as people think — since much of that debt is owed by one branch of the government to another, net debt held by the public is only 134 percent of gross domestic product, not the widely quoted figure of 240 percent. But 134 percent is still a lot. About 15.6 percent of Japanese tax revenue goes to pay interest on this debt every year — about the same as for the U.S … In the end, a sovereign default is just an accounting exercise — marking down the assets of some Japanese people and marking up the assets of others. It would redistribute wealth from the old to the young. – Bloomberg

Dominant Social Theme: Japan is getting older but its economy is healthy. Never mind the naysayers.
Free-Market Analysis: This is an interesting article by a Bloomberg editorialist – Noah Smith – whose editorials sometimes border on the ridiculous. He’s a firm Keynesian – a believer that money-from-nothing can cure most economic ills – and we’ve written about some of his editorials in the past.
Continue Reading at TheDailyBell.com…
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This Technical Indicator May be the Simplest Way to Pick Winning Stocks

What's the first rule of successful real estate investing? Of course, you just said to yourself, "location, location, location." Well, when it comes successful equity trading, the first rule that should come to your mind is "price, price, price."
More specifically, it is the share price performance of a stock or ETF relative to other stocks and ETFs traded in the market that is the most important metric to put in your favor.
If a security you are looking to buy has a proven track record of outperforming others in the broad market, or within its specific industry group, then that tells you others on Wall Street think there is something special about it that makes it worth buying. (more)

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“The Murder of The Middle Class: How To Save Yourself And Your Family!”

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“Major Risk Should The Market Drop”: BofA On Fresh Record Low In NYSE Investor “Net Worth”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 09/26/2014 07:59 -0400
While we have argued previously that looking at NYSE margin debt in isolation is quite meaningless for two simple reasons: i) in the New Normal hedge funds and algos, not retail and certainly not traders on “lit” venues like the NYSE but instead in dark pools, are the marginal traders, and ii) the relevant trading leverage is obtained from the “shadow banking” and repo markets, not plain vanilla margin debt from exchange clerks, monthly NYSE trading stats do provide some sense of just how levered the individual investor is, and what it may portend for the market should there be a selloff. Which is why we were not surprised to see that based on August data, the trend has continued: while NYSE margin debt rose once again, from $460 billion to $463 billion, just shy of the record set in February when it hit $466 billion and well above the previous bubble peak, it is the investor “Net Worth”, or Net Free Credit as some call it: the difference of total free credit + cash balances and margin debt, that for the second consecutive month sank to a fresh record low of ($183) billion.

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More Than Half of One 3D Printing Company’s Shares Are Short

Short interest in the two-week period ending September 15 fell for two of the four 3D printing companies we follow and rose for the other two. Share prices at all four have posted year-to-date declines, and only one stock trades within sight of its 52-week high. These stocks are not trading as heavily as they once were either. Days to cover rose for all the 3D printing stocks.
Short interest in 3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) fell 2.5% to 35.77 million shares. Some 34.3% of the company’s stock is short. Days to cover rose to 14. In the two-week short interest period, the share price fell more than 6% and is down more than 47% for the year to date as of Wednesday’s close at $49.54. The stock’s 52-week range is $43.35 to $97.28.
Stratasys Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS) saw short interest rise 4.5% in the first two weeks of September to 6.53 million shares, or about 15% of the company’s float. Days to cover now stands at six. Shares rose 3.2% in the two-week period, closed at $124.41 Wednesday night and have dropped about 7.2% for the year to date. The stock’s 52-week range is $85.30 to $138.10. An analyst downgrade in early September probably spiked the rise in short interest.
Short interest in The ExOne Co. (NASDAQ: XONE) rose about 3,0% to 4.62 million shares. About 51% of the company’s shares are now held short. Shares of ExOne fell more than 12% in the two-week period and closed at $24.82 Wednesday, down about 60% year to date. The stock’s 52-week range is $24.34 to $70.25, and days to cover rose to nine.
Voxeljet A.G. (NYSE: VJET) saw short interest fall 1.0% to 2.9 million shares, with a days to cover number of eight. Since coming public at $19 in mid-October last year, the share price is down about 45%. Year to date, shares are down nearly 64%, and they fell 9% in the two-week period to September 15. The stock closed at $15.80, in a post-IPO range of $12.85 to $70.00.
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Homebuilders: Look Out Below

KB Home released its Q3 earnings report yesterday.  This is what the stock market thought of KBH’s numbers (click on graph to enlarge):

The stock is down nearly 10% in two trading days despite the “bullish” new home sales report from the Census Bureau (more on that later).  KBH reported another decline in actual deliveries.  It also implemented some serious earnings “management” devices to make its net income appear larger than it really was.  I suspect that when they get around to releasing their 10-Q with a cash flow statement in it, we’ll see that it once again generated a cash flow loss from operations…
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Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS)

Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company, develops analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) for a range of consumer and industrial markets. The company offers audio products, including analog-to-digital converters (ADCs), digital-to-analog converters (DACs), codecs, digital interface ICs, volume controls, adaptive noise cancelling circuits, and amplifiers, as well as audio digital signal processors. Its audio products are used in various consumer applications comprising portable media players, smartphones, tablets, laptops, audio/video receivers, portable media players and speakers, home theater systems, set-top boxes, headsets and headphones, and digital camcorders and televisions.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Cirrus (Nasdaq: CRUS) with the added notations:

Over the last year CRUS has been up, down, back up again, and since the beginning of June the stock has created a key level of support at $22 (green). The stock finally broke that support yesterday. The stock should be moving overall lower, at least down to the next level of $21 (red). A break of $21 most likely means a fall back down to $19 (blue).

The Tale of the Tape: CRUS had a key level of support at $22. Now that the stock has broken support, a trader might want to enter a short trade at or near the $22, with a stop placed above the level of entry. A break back above $22 could negate the forecast for a move lower.
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Iron Ore Falls Below $80 On China Swoon— Lowest Since 2009

 

  

Iron ore slumped below $80 a metric ton for the first time in five years on speculation that China’s slowing economic growth will curb demand in the world’s biggest user, exacerbating a global surplus.

Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao, China, fell 0.5 percent to $79.69 a dry ton, the lowest level since Sept. 16, 2009, according to data from Metal Bulletin Ltd. The drop followed seven weeks of declines as the steelmaking raw material had the longest run of losses since May. (more)

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GLD gold holdings hit new Yearly Low

Western-based gold investment demand continues to plummet as gold is being sold in order to buy equities. It is a continuation of the theme that has been in place for the majority of 2014. The surging stock market, coupled with a strong Dollar, is undercutting interest in the zero-interest paying asset. 

Add to this recipe falling inflation expectations, and it is looking more and more likely that, barring some sort of unforeseen geopolitical event, gold is not going to be able to stay above the $1200 level.

Take a look at the following two charts which I post very regularly here. The first is the reported holdings of the giant gold ETF, GLD. 

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Is Corn Heading For A Bounce?

There's a big opportunity setting up for commodities investors...

 

Thanks to mild weather and plenty of rain, the U.S. is expecting the largest corn crop it has ever seen.

 

But good news for corn supply is bad news for corn prices... The price of the commodity has fallen around 20% this year. And many expect it to keep falling.

 

While corn prices may be set to fall in the short term, a boom is just around the corner. And investors are about to have a great chance to get in...(more)

 

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Why Oil Prices Are Dropping Despite Mideast Unrest

by Jeff Rubin
Financial Sense
In the past, military conflicts in the Middle East and the attendant threat of supply disruptions would send oil prices soaring. Today, oil prices are falling even as the region is seemingly unraveling. Civil wars are unfolding in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, atrocities by ISIS have the western world mounting military action, and Hamas and Israel are coming off arguably the most intense period of conflict in years. The region feels like a tinderbox. Oil supply has already suffered in Libya and Iraq and the threat of production losses is looming over other countries in the region.
Historically, such widespread unrest would have caused global oil prices to march higher, but instead of rising against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks, Brent, the global price benchmark, has recently sunk below $100 a barrel. Despite the unrest in the world’s most important oil producing region, the price of Brent is now actually 16 percent lower than it was in June.
Continue Reading at FinancialSense.com…
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S&P500 At Historic Highs Relative to Gold Miner ETF GDX

Precious metals have been the big story lately as Silver crashes to 4-year lows and almost anything with the word “Gold” in it continues to struggle and underperform other equities. Today I want to take a look at the S&P500 compared to the Gold Miners since they are right near historic levels.
Here is a daily line chart showing the ratio between SPY and GDX since last summer. We are literally right at the all-time highs in this particular ratio (note: the ETF GDX has only existed since 2006):

A break of this key resistance would give us a measured move target up near 10.38 which is almost 16% from current levels. We’ve already broken the down trend line from last December’s highs in the ratio. But a breakout to new highs, which looks likely would be another bullish development.
I can see a scenario where we continue to consolidate up here and then break out, or even correct a little bit to the downside in order to properly acknowledge this former overhead supply. But a confirmed breakout here would be extremely constructive, and from where we stand today, the higher probability outcome.
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National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV)

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. provides equipment and components for oil and gas drilling and production; oilfield services; and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry worldwide. The company’s Rig Technology segment offers offshore and onshore drilling rigs; derricks; pipe lifting, racking, rotating, and assembly systems; rig instrumentation; blowout preventers; coiled tubing equipment and pressure pumping units. The Petroleum Services and Supplies segment provides consumable goods and services to drill, complete, remediate, and work over oil and gas wells. Its Distribution and Transmission segment provides pipe, maintenance, repair, and operating supplies and spare parts to drill site and production locations, pipeline operations, processing plants, and industrial facilities; procurement, materials management, and logistics services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Varco (NYSE: NOV) with the added notations:

NOV may be forming a bearish chart pattern known as a double top. Double tops are reversal patterns and are as simple as they sound: Rallying up to a point (T), selling off to a support, and then rallying back up again to approximately the same top (T).
NOV appears to have formed the double top price pattern (blue) over the last 3 months. As with any price pattern, a confirmation of the pattern is needed. NOV would confirm its pattern by breaking the $80 support (red) that was created by the double top pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: NOV has formed a potential double top. A short trade could be made on a break of the $80 level. Since there is no guarantee of a breakdown, a long trade could be made at $80 if a trader is willing to disregard the pattern.
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Too Big Not To Fail | McAlvany Commentary 2014

This Week’s Show:
Collapse of Complexity is a recurrent pattern
Governments will sacrifice all to maintain norm
The FED’s 4 Trillion Dollar Liquidity Trap
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Standard & Poor’s Warns on Germany Triggering the Next Debt Crisis, Investors Would Lose their Shirts

A true debacle happened. Just when we thought the euro was safe, that ECB President Mario Draghi had single-handedly duct-taped the Eurozone back together in the summer of 2012 with his magic words, “whatever it takes.” Markets assumed that they were backed by the ECB’s printing press, and they loved their assumption. Spanish, Italian, even highly dubious Greek debt, some of it with a fresh haircut, soared. And hedge funds and banks gorged on it and loved it. The debt crisis was over! Stocks soared even more. Money was being made.

So bank bailouts continued, and the Eurozone recession proved to be a nasty long-term affair, but no problem, everything seemed to be guaranteed by the ECB. Debt-sinner countries, as Germans like to call them, could suddenly borrow for nearly free, and neither deficits nor debts mattered to financial markets.

But now comes ratings agency Standard & Poor’s and douses our illusions, because that’s all they were, with a bucket of ice water. The soaring popularity and electoral successes of Germany’s anti-euro party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), could push Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party, the conservative CDU, to take a harder line against bailouts, hopes of QE, and all manner of other ECB miracles that financial markets had been counting on. And it could spook them. And the nearly free money could suddenly dry up. So S&P warned:

None of this would matter much, if we were to assess that the euro crisis is safely behind us. However, this is unlikely to be the case. Eurozone output is still below 2007 levels, and in 2014 the weak recovery has come to a near halt in much of the euro area. Unemployment remains precariously high and disinflationary pressures have been mounting. Public debt burdens continue to rise in all large euro area countries bar Germany.

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Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM)

Whole Foods Market, Inc. operates as a retailer of natural and organic foods. Its stores offer produce and floral, grocery, meat, seafood, bakery, prepared foods and catering, coffee, tea, beer, wine, cheese, nutritional supplements, vitamins, and body care products, as well as lifestyle products including books, pet products, and household products. As of July 30, 2014, the company operated 388 stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFM) with the added notations:

WFM peaked back in October at almost $65 and proceeded to lose over 40 percent of its value from there. The stock seems to have bottomed out a bit over the last 5 months. Over that period, the stock has commonly hit a very important level of resistance at $40 (blue). The one time WFM was able to break through $40 the stock ran up to $43. If the stock can break above $40 again, higher prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: WFM has a key level of resistance at $40. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $40.
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Did Alibaba’s IPO Signal a Top in the Stock Market?

An experienced researcher suggests the S&P 500 could drop up to 18%
by Mark Hulbert
Market Watch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Wouldn’t it be ironic if this great bull market ended last Friday, on the occasion of Alibaba’s record-setting IPO, the largest in history?
More than a few of the investment advisers I monitor are entertaining that possibility, especially in light of Monday’s triple-digit loss in the Dow and the Nasdaq’s decline of more than 1%. Alibaba dropped over 4% on its second day of trading.
Those advisers point out that history’s most significant market tops have often been accompanied by high-profile events that prompt the average investor to overcome any residue of skepticism they may be harboring.
Continue Reading at MarketWatch.com…
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Sprott Fund Manager Jason Mayer’s Guide to Resource Stock Profits

by JT Long
The Gold Report

Miners are having a tough time getting funded, and although Canadian oil and gas has performed well over the last few quarters, some companies might be overvalued. No wonder investors are confused. In this interview with The Mining Report, Jason Mayer of Sprott Asset Management examines near- and long-term plays that look poised to deliver returns, and shares his criteria for selecting profitable investments in volatile resource markets.

The Mining Report: In February, you gave a speech at The Vancouver Club that acknowledged the impact of investor fatigue on the junior mining equity space. Seven months later, are investors starting to get excited again about the space?
Jason Mayer: Investors have been reacting in fits and starts, and everyone is still very cautious. I track a number of funds, and I watch how they perform on a day-to-day basis. What I have found interesting is that a number of resource funds in Canada continue to be underweight, particularly in gold equities. I notice they underperform on days that gold stocks have good moves. The generalists out there among the institutional money have little to no presence in various gold equities. For the most part, people have abandoned the space.
Continue Reading at TheAuReport.com…
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Gold Bounces on Syrian Air Strike News

traderdannorcini.blogspot.com / By Dan Norcini / September 23, 2014
Looks like the news of air attacks in portions of ISIS-controlled Syria has been enough to spook some of the shorts in gold. After a ferocious wave of short-covering, gold has given back most of its gains for now.
After a near relentless decline, it was perhaps to be expected that any sort of news which might generate some safe-haven buying would run some shorts out of the market.
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Technical Breakdown Points to a Double-Digit Dip in Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA)

News about slowing demand in China coupled with a soaring U.S. dollar is putting pressure on commodities from energy to food. Today, I want to look at an energy stock that is currently locked in a declining trend that can offer a nice short side profit before its fundamentals kick in to send it back up.
Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. However, it is viewed by many as more of a play on natural gas. Analysts expect natural gas demand to rise and generally seem to think the company's fundamentals are solid.
On the technical side, though, the trend is clear and it is not positive. Since peaking in July with an intraday spike above $104 and failure, APA has fallen to the $94.50 level currently.

More interesting is its overall chart pattern since June. At first glance, it looks to be a simple trading range, but it is an easy argument to make that a head-and-shoulders pattern has formed. (more)
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Death-Crossed Russell Suffers Biggest 2-Day Plunge In 5 Months

Death crosses; Hindenburg Omens; PBOC, BOJ, and ECB hinted at removing the punchbowl; crappy US housing data; and a Chinese IPO takeout hangover weighed on stocks with Russell 2000 the biggest loser (suffering its biggest high-to-low drop from Friday in over 5 months). The Dow is the only index holding post-FOMC gains (Russell down over 2%). Homebuilders are now down 4% from last week’s FOMC statement, post-FOMC high-flyer financials have tumbled red (catching down to credit), and only safe-haven healthcare is holding any gains post-FOMC (Biotech -3%). Treasury yields fell led by the short-end (3Y -3.5bps, 10Y -2bps) back under FOMC levels. The USD recovered European session losses to end almost unchanged as considerable AUD and CAD weakness outweighed GBP strength. Despite being clubbed like a baby seal in Asia, Silver rebounded through the day to end -0.3%, gold unch, oil down, and copper -1.6% as China stimulus hopes faded. S&P 500 lost 2,000; Russell is down 2.6% year-to-date (-6.8% from July highs); VIX jumped most in 2 months to ~14. BABA pinned at $90, HLF smashed -10%.
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Triangle Trade Setting Up in Apple AAPL

With all the attention focused on the iPhone 6 this weekend, traders may be missing an iTriangle Pattern forming on the stock chart of Apple (AAPL) shares.
Let’s take a look at the Classic Chart pattern, note the boundaries, and trading tactics we may use as this pattern develops.

Shares continue a strong bullish uptrend as evidenced by higher price highs and higher price lows.
We also observe the most bullish orientation possible in the moving average structure of price in the trend. (more)
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What Is the VIX Fear Index Telling Us Now?

Supply and Demand

When you get down to brass tacks, asset prices are governed by supply and demand. In the markets, the conviction of buyers relative to the conviction of sellers also plays a major role. Therefore, “I am confident” vs. “I am nervous” ratios can help us monitor and manage investment risk. What is the market telling us now?

Confident vs. Nervous

One confident vs. nervous ratio, the S&P 500 relative to the VIX, is shown below. When the ratio was pushed back at resistance (see point A), weakness in stocks followed (bottom of chart). Conversely, when the ratio cleared resistance (point B), good things happened in the stock market. Last Friday (before the FED), the ratio was revisiting the horizontal blue line, meaning it was at a possible inflection point (see point C).

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Emerging Markets Break 2014 Uptrend Line

One of the standout losers to start the week has to be Emerging Markets. We’ve been watching this space closely ever since the failed breakout to new 52-week highs earlier this month. Whenever we see those, the opportunities that develop can provide us with very favorable risk/rewards.
Today we are going to focus on the daily bar chart of $EEM which is the iShares ETF that represents the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This Index has heavy exposure in China (17%), South Korea (15%) and the rest in places like Taiwan (12%), Brazil (10%), South Africa (7%), India (6%), Russia (5%), Mexico (4%), etc.
Take a look at the failed breakout earlier this month. This is just another one of the million examples of the fast moves that come from failed moves. The problem that I see here is that not only are we entering the week breaking the uptrend line from the 2014 lows, but also key support from the lows in June and August:

Notice the bearish divergence in momentum as RSI failed to confirm any of the new highs in price throughout the summer. Momentum was warning us of a problem, and prices now seem to be confirming. I would say that to invalidate any of this negative action, I would want to see prices rally back above 43.50 without RSI reaching oversold conditions. But other than that, it looks like lower prices are coming. (more)
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PowerSecure International, Inc. (NYSE: POWR)

PowerSecure International, Inc. provides products and services to electric utilities and to their commercial, institutional, and industrial customers in the United States. It offers interactive distributed generation power systems, smart grid monitoring for electric utilities, peak shaving and demand response, and standby power dispatch and control solutions; PowerSecure solar distributed energy systems; and switchgear products and systems under the NexGear brand name.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of PowerSecure (NYSE: POWR) below with my added notations:

Back in May POWR took a massive hit, falling from $20 down to $7 in two days. Since that time the stock has slowly rebounded up to a high of around $12. During the rebound POWR created a key level at $10 (green) and an obvious resistance at $12 (red). The stock will eventually break one of those two levels, and that break will most likely dictate POWR’s next short-term move.

The Tale of the Tape: POWR has key levels to watch at $10 and $12. Long trades could be considered at $10 or on a break through $12. Short trades could be made at $12 or on a break below $10.
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Precious Metals and JC Penney

I think we need to give JCP some time here before getting aggressively long again. But precious metals are just starting to break down and I believe there is still more downside left.


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Technician Richard Dickson: No Signs of a Major Top – Supply and Demand Pressures in Balance

Also, Ryan Puplava With the Market Wrap and Erik Townsend on Commodities

TECHNICIAN09/20/2014
Jim welcomes back Richard Dickson, Chief Market Analyst at Lowry Research. Richard sees supply and demand pressures in relative balance, and no technical warnings of a major market top. He notes that the market is becoming increasingly more selective. Currently, the Consumer Cyclical and Financial sectors look attractive. Richard also notes that higher interest rates are not necessarily a bad thing for stocks. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up and Erik Townsend covers the commodity sector, with a particular focus on the oil markets and the strength of the U.S. dollar. 
Click Here To Listen
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Desperate Acts to Retain the Paper Monetary System

gold-eagle.com / LongWave Group / September 21, 2014
Within the current global economic environment, central bankers – of the world’s developed economies and those of emerging markets alike – remain obsessed with the struggle to incorporate monetary policies which will engender renewed gross domestic product (GDP) growth in their respective economies.  These central bankers have been led by the example of the U.S. Federal Reserve, whose implementation of a multi-year quantitative easing program, i.e. the $4.5 trillion (U.S.) purchase of U.S Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, has been coupled with the maintenance of historically low administered interest rates; such as the present 0% – 0.25% range for the Federal Funds Rate.  Complicating the global GDP growth challenge has been the persistent increase in the debt levels of many sovereign credits, once again led by the United States, whose national debt level now exceeds $16.8 trillion (U.S.) – that’s $16,800,000,000,000 (U.S.).  Within the context of the above, it behooves us to visit a few historic examples of paper money systems which, while well-marketed, met with an inglorious fate.        
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Pandora Media Inc (NYSE: P)

Pandora Media, Inc. provides Internet radio services in the United States. The company allows listeners to create up to 100 personalized stations to access free music and comedy, as well as offers Pandora One, a paid subscription service to listeners. It is also involved in the sale of displays, audio advertising, and video advertising products to advertisers for delivery on computer, mobile, and other connected device platforms.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Pandora (NYSE: P) with the added notations:

P has created a simple chart pattern known as a symmetrical triangle. Combining a down trending resistance (red) with an up trending support (blue) forms the triangle pattern. As the support and resistance converge on each other the pattern is created. Since there is no way to know which way the stock will break, most traders will wait for the breakout, or breakdown, before entering a trade.
The Tale of the Tape: P has formed a simple symmetrical triangle. A trader could enter a long position on a break above the down trending resistance (near $27.50) with a stop set under the entry level. However, if P were to break below the trend line support (currently just above $25), a short trade could be entered with a stop above the trend line.
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	Actual	CONSENSUS forecast	previous
MONDAY, SEPT. 22
8:30 am	Chicago Fed national activity index	Aug.		--	0.25 (3-month)
10 am	Existing home sales	Aug.		5.20 mln	5.15 mln
TUESDAY, SEPT. 23
9 am	FHFA home prices	July		--	5.1% yoy
9:45 am	Markit "flash" PMI			--	57.9
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 24
10 am	New home sales	Aug.		425,000	412,000
THURSDAY, SEPT. 25
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	Sept. 20		300,000	280,000
8:30 am	Durable goods orders	Aug.		-16.5%	22.6%
FRIDAY, SEPT. 26
8:30 am	GDP revision	Q2		4.7%	4.2%
9:55 am	Consumer sentiment	Sept.		84.5	84.6

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The Next 7 Days May Trigger A Global Stock Market Crash

kingworldnews.com / September 19, 2014

September 19 (King World News) – “On this day (+1) in 1873, the New York Stock Exchange set a record, although it was one they would be ambivalent about for the next 133 years.

Founded in 1792, the Exchange had survived early volatility (1794), a challenge from competitors (1802), a merger and a new name (1825), a punishing diet (records indicate that, circa 1810, lunch was a double jigger of dark rum and a wedge of dried codfish…..please note….we no longer serve codfish).

 But on Saturday, September 20, 1873, for the first time in its history, the NYSE closed in response to a panic.  (The word circuit breaker had not been invented yet….er…..neither had circuits.)

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Did The Bottom Just Fall Out Of Commodities?

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 09/19/2014 14:12
Global growth expectations… we have a problem. With all eyes focused on BABA, Treasury yields, and Russell 2000 death-crosses, the old equally-weighted CRB commodity index has broken down through support to 4-year lows this morning…
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Credit Ratings Agencies Are Repeating Pre-Meltdown Behavior

by John Morgan
Money News
The credit ratings agencies, which some experts blame for being enablers in the nation’s 2008 financial meltdown, apparently have been back-sliding toward their old behavior.
Big banks and other lenders were motivated to push worthless loans off as valuable during the profit scramble before the bubble burst, and critics said the credit agencies went along for the ride.
“They made their money rating bonds, and only rating bonds,” The Washington Post noted. “If it turned out their ratings were garbage, and contributed to a once-in-three-generations crisis — well, oops. But thanks for all the fees! It was one part incompetence, and another part incentives.”
Continue Reading at MoneyNews.com…
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Mine Closures and Shortages are Sending Base Metal Zinc Higher – Weekly Market Wrap Up

Zinc’s spot-price was already on a positive trajectory following extended buying on forecasts of shortages of the metal due to mine closures and as a proxy for recovering global growth. Zinc is used heavily in penny production which will inevitably rise beyond the cost of the underlined face value of the one-cent coin. The question is, at what point will people hoard pennies just for the metal content inside of the coin? Forecasts, projections, and more are all included in this week's edition.
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Rent-A-Center Inc (NASDAQ: RCII)

Rent-A-Center, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, leases household durable goods to customers on a rent-to-own basis. The company operates in four segments: Core U.S., Acceptance Now, International, and Franchising. It offers durable products, such as consumer electronics, appliances, computers, furniture, and accessories under rental purchase agreements. The company also provides merchandise on an installment sales basis; and offers the rent-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for financing from the traditional retailer through kiosks within retailer’s locations.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Rent-a-Center (Nasdaq: RCII) below with the added notations:

RCII had a rough go of things from October through March. Since that low, the stock appears to have formed a double bottom (green) price pattern. The pattern is as simple as it sounds: Bottoming, rallying up to a point, selling back off to a similar bottom, and then rallying back up again.
As with any price pattern, a confirmation of the pattern is needed. RCII would confirm the pattern by breaking up through the $30 resistance (blue) that has been created by the double bottom pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: After trending lower into March, RCII has formed a double bottom price pattern. A long trade could be entered on a break above the $30 resistance with a stop placed under that level.
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Grain Markets coming to Grips with Reality

traderdannorcini.blogspot.com / By Dan Norcini  / September 19, 2014
There are two factors that are now finally becoming begin to seriously take hold among those who kept insisting that grains would experience a bounce higher. The first of these is the sheer size of the upcoming harvest. The latter is the strength in the US Dollar.
Early harvest results are rolling in and they are impressive! With forecasts calling for warm and mostly dry weather, harvest progress will continue as the combines move north. As the actual results are known, traders are realizing the old adage that, ” a big crop gets bigger”.
All three grains/beans are lower this morning with beans looking like they are accelerating down. I am most interested in seeing this afternoon’s COT reports on the corn because I want to see if any of the large specs ( hedge funds and other large reportables) are still net long corn or if they have whittled down those positions any.
My concern for corn is very simple – IF, and this is a big “IF”, that just-mentioned group remains as sizeable net longs, corn is in danger of having more downside than many are currently thinking. The reason? Those guys are going to have to get out of those losing longs.
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Bank Insider: Worst Depression Ever Coming

Bank Insider: Worst Depression Ever Coming 

Bank Insider James Rickards reveals the depth of the Global Banking Collapse that is about to affect billions.

The feds are gearing up to face Americans protesting the intentional importation of illegal immigrants and Alex breaks it all down on this Monday, July 7 edition of the Alex Jones Show. In Grand Prairie, Texas, county officials are planning a heavy police presence to discourage protestors arriving outside a public school where illegals will be housed later this month. The collapse of America's borders is intended to destroy the independence of the United States as a sovereign nation, leading to severe economic repercussions which will affect millions of Americans who are already facing a future global meltdown of the international monetary system. Financial expert and author James Rickards joins today's show to talk about this potential meltdown which could easily explode into a global crisis altering the lives of billions around the world.

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High Homebuilder Confidence Marks The Top

Although I never put much credibility in the Government’s housing starts report because the data collection is poor and the data that is collected is put through the Government’s statistics manipulation meat-grinder, today showed a stunning decline in housing starts vs. last month and vs. expectations.  The high volatility last month and this month was due to “reported” starts in apartment buildings.  The last time apartment starts reached a very high level was in 2005 – right before the housing bubble burst.
And yesterday much ado was made about the National Association of Homebuilders Confidence Index report.  It’s reached a level not seen since, well – 2005.  I put together this graphic below which happens to show what happens to housing starts and new home sales when homebuilder “confidence” spikes up like it showed in yesterday’s report (click on graph to enlarge):

As you can see, the last several times builder confidence spiked up, housing starts and new home sales fell off a cliff (2005, 1994 and 1990).  I remember the 1990′s housing market well because I was trading homebuilder junk bonds on Wall Street.  All of them were the junk bonds of the same homebuilders around today who nearly went bust in the late 1980′s and in 2008. (more)
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Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc (NYSE: CCE)

Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverages. It provides still and sparkling waters, flavored waters, juice and juice drinks, sports drinks, energy drinks, teas, and coffees. The company offers its products primarily under Coca-Cola, Diet Coke/Coke Light, Fanta, Coca-Cola Zero, Capri-Sun, Schweppes, Sprite, Chaudfontaine, Minute Maid, Oasis, Dr. Pepper, Monster, Nalu, Relentless, and POWERade Energy brands. It distributes its products through retailers, wholesalers, and other customers; and through licensed territory agreements in Belgium, continental France, Great Britain, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Coca-Cola (NYSE: CCE) with the added notations:

After rallying into March, CCE has held a very important level of support at $44 (purple) for most of the following 6 months. No matter what the market has done during that time, CCE has always found support at that level when tested. Now, the stock seems to be approaching $44 again and that could provide another bounce higher.

The Tale of the Tape: CCE has a key level of support at $44. A trader could enter a long position at $44 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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OPEC Hints It May Act To Stop Oil Price Slide

by Nick Cunningham
Oil Price
Oil prices may have gone as low as OPEC is willing to tolerate.
After several months of price declines, the secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says the group may cut its production target for 2015 because of an abundance of supply.
The oil cartel accounts for around 40 percent of the world’s oil supply, and although its influence has diminished in recent years as oil output has risen — from the United States in particular — the organization can still significantly impact the price of crude if it wants to.
Continue Reading at OilPrice.com…
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Gold Losing Ground in Other Assorted Currencies

Some of the long time readers will know that I like to check the charts for gold, when priced in terms of the other major currencies, to get a sense of how the metal is doing when viewed from outside of this country. Since it is an internationally traded commodity, it makes sense to compare its performance to see whether there is a general global trend in the metal or whether it is diverging from such a trend depending on which currency it might be priced in. This helps us assess overall global sentiment.

With the big Scotland vote in the headlines, I thought it might behoove us to see how the metal was faring in terms of the British Pound. I understand that more than a few Scots fear for their life’s savings and were pulling money out of banks just in case. One would think that gold would be a likely recipient for some of that cash.

However, in looking at the price chart, it is rather lackluster ( and that is trying to be kind) as the metal has actually BEEN FALLING ahead of the vote. Not exactly a VOTE of confidence ( sorry, I could not resist the pun) in the metal from what I can see on the chart at this point.

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Eric Coffin: Can Investors Still Find Tenbaggers?

The Gold Report: You told The Gold Report last year you were “neutral” on the state of the U.S. economy. Since then, the headline unemployment number has improved. Even so, as David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget, says, there have been no net new jobs created since July 2000, and jobs paying over $50,000 per year have disappeared by 18,000 per month since 2000. What is your view of the health of the U.S. economy?

Eric Coffin: I’m more positive than neutral these days, but I do agree somewhat with Stockman. As unemployment falls toward 6%, we would expect an increase in wage gains. But we’re just not seeing that. And five years into the latest expansion, we’re not seeing the economic growth spurts that tend to occur coming out of a really bad recession. I don’t see how the U.S. economy keeps reproducing the 4% Q2/14 growth if we don’t see higher wage gains and higher paying jobs created. (more)
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Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, markets, and supports software, services, and devices worldwide. The company’s Devices and Consumer (D&C) Licensing segment licenses Windows operating system and related software; Microsoft Office for consumers; and Windows Phone operating system. Its Computing and Gaming Hardware segment provides Xbox gaming and entertainment consoles and accessories. The company’s Phone Hardware segment offers Lumia Smartphones and other non-Lumia phones. Its D&C Other segment provides Windows Store, Xbox Live transactions, and Windows Phone Store; search advertising; display advertising; Office 365 Home and Office 365 Personal. The company’s Commercial Licensing segments licenses server products, including Windows Server, Microsoft and related Client Access Licenses; Windows operating system; Microsoft Office for business; and Skype. Its Commercial Other segment offers enterprise services, including premier support services and Microsoft consulting services; commercial cloud comprising Office 365 Commercial and other Microsoft Office online offerings.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) below with my added notations:

MSFT has been trending consistently higher for the entire last year, and during the last 8 months, the stock has also formed a clear trendline of support (green). In addition, the stock had also created at 52-week high resistance level at $45.50 (blue) in July and August. At some point MSFT was going to have to break one of those two levels, and late last week the stock broke through resistance to a new high.

The Tale of the Tape: MSFT broke though its $45.50 resistance, which was also a new 52-week high. A long trade could be made on a pullback down to the $45.50 level with a stop placed below that level. A break back below $45.50 should lead to a fall down to the trendline support., which is currently approaching $44.
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Twitter (NASDAQ: TWTR) is Back on the Warpath

In the brief history of social media stocks, history is repeating itself. Both Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) and Twitter (NASDAQ: TWTR) stumbled badly after much-hyped IPOs. And both are now gaining meaningful traction, cementing their roles as powerful platforms for the global ad market.
Of course, we now know how wrong many investors were about Facebook. A little more than a year ago, it appeared as if the company's management was ill-suited to the task of converting a massive user base into a profit machine -- what's known in the tech industry as "monetizing the base" -- and shares languished below $25.
Investor cynicism toward Facebook surely proved short-sighted. 2015 sales will likely exceed $16 billion, more than double the company's 2013 sales base, and shares now trade above $75. (more)

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How to Invest in the Next Disruptive Tech Trends

Lou Basenese, Founder and Chief Analyst at Disruptive Tech Research, talks about two new tech trends that are about to change the world.

He also talks about what to expect from Alibaba's IPO, the huge surge in GoPro and his favorite technologies developing from Apple's new product launch.

Then, Debra Borchardt, market analyst at S&A, talks about her recent trip to the Disrupt San Francisco TechCrunch conference.

This is where some of the biggest names in technology including Peter Thiel (billionaire and PayPal founder), Mark Cuban (billionaire entrepreneur), and Marissa Mayer (CEO of Yahoo!) talk about their favorite new tech ideas. (more)

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Cycles Say Silver Will Be Stronger Than Gold – Charles Nenner Research

Gold continues its struggle this Tuesday and Kitco News speaks with Charles Nenner Research’s managing director David Gurwitz to find out what the cycles are telling him. Gurwitz says that although gold may go as low as the $1,120 level, he expects the metal to bounce soon. “It’s the process of bottoming and it could still go a little lower,” he says. “But we are looking to go long pretty soon.” Gurwitz also says he expects the dollar to start heading down starting next year. “We generally look at gold in dollar terms,” he says. “We think gold is going to retest its highs down the road.” Looking at silver, Gurwitz says he sees a more promising future for the industrial metal. “Silver is going to be stronger than gold, we think silver can double.” Tune in now to see what the cycles are telling him about unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and more! 
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Winter is Coming! Here's My Favorite Seasonal Trade: Natural Gas

Over the years, I've been successful trading weather patterns as they relate to commodities such as crude oil, gasoline and grains. As unpredictable as the weather can seem, there are patterns, and traders who get ahead of the crowd can exploit them for reliable profits.
Today, I'm going to share one of my favorite seasonal trades with you, and that is the tendency for natural gas prices to rise in the winter months as the colder weather spurs demand for use in home heating.

Source: U.S. Energy Administration

For seven of the past 10 years, the price of natural gas has risen between the beginning of September and the end February, with an average gain of 17.6%.
The Farmers' Almanac predicts the 2014-2015 winter will again bring record cold temperatures for most of the nation. And with natural gas prices near historical lows, this would all but guarantee higher prices over the next few months. (more)

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