It’s decision time on the Gold Cycles, we’re down to the business end
and the action is about to reveal exactly where Gold is heading in the
near future. I believe that gold over the next 4 sessions will reveal
where it’s headed over the next 4 months.
I covered my disappointment regarding the 1st Daily Cycle
performance last week. Since the Cycle clearly topped with the
trend-line break, I warned members to expect $1,704 to be marginally
taken out. Well it’s gotten worse since then as the Cycle has given up
more than 75% of its gains and is encroaching on the prior Daily and
Investor Cycle Lows.
Although the Cycle is now in the timing band for a DCL and gold is
oversold, we cannot rule out the possibility that Gold will drop further
in a final attempt at breaking the prior Cycle Low. Any Cycle failure
at this point would be deemed both a Daily and Investor Cycle failure
which sets the scene for another significant 12-16 weeks of declines
back down towards the $1,523 level. This type of action seems very
unlikely though, considering the Dollar is already into its 12th week
and rapidly declining due to its own Daily Cycle failure. Having the
Gold and Dollar Cycles fail simultaneously would be extremely unusual,
which is why I do not believe it will happen.
Another reason why I expect Gold to hold up is due to the strength
being shown by Silver. This poor cousin of Gold is generally much more
volatile and with a correlation to gold of over 90% it normally is
leading the charge into any Cycle failure. Unlike
Gold and the Miners, it’s Daily and Investor Cycles are actually very
healthy and bullish. The Daily Cycle has retraced exactly 50%, has
fully recharged, and is now right ready to catapult out into its 2nd Daily Cycle. Having Silver remain strong and well bid in this situation is a positive sign.
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