Tuesday, April 5, 2011

The Kings of Cash Flow - Investment Ideas: MSFT, PG, IBM, VZ

What is the value of a stock?

If you ask most people that question, they will likely pull up the company's stock quote from a financial website and give you that number. But they're confusing price with value.

Popularity Contest

Ben Graham, the father of value investing observed:

In the short-term, the market is a voting machine. In the long-term, it is a weighing machine.

In other words, the stock prices of both good and bad companies can move rapidly for several reasons in the short run. But over the long run, only the strong companies thrive.

So what is the real value of that piece of paper you hold? Is it worth anything at all?

Ownership

When you buy a stock, you're actually buying an ownership interest in a company. And the value of any business is the present value of all of its free cash flow.

Free cash flow is a very useful measure of a company's true profitability. It is calculated as:

Cash Flow from Operations
- Capital Expenditures

Both of these items can be found on the Statement of Cash Flows.

Companies that generate substantial free cash flow can hold onto that cash, pay down debt, buy back stock, or distribute it to shareholders through dividends.

The Kings of Free Cash Flow

So what companies are currently generating substantial free cash flow for their owners? Here are 4:

Microsoft (MSFT) may have had its missteps lately, but its Windows operating system and Office business software are still huge cash cows for the company.

Microsoft generated over $22 billion in free cash flow in 2010, a 72% increase from 2006. The company has been using its cash to buyback stock and raise its dividend. It currently yields 2.5%.

It trades at just 10x free cash flow, a significant discount to the industry average of 24.8x. It is a Zacks #3 Rank (Hold) stock.

Proctor & Gamble (PG) is about as stable as they come. The company markets more than 250 products to more than 5 billion consumers around the world.

In 2010, P&G generated over $13 billion in free cash flow, and it returned nearly $11.5 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividend payments. It currently yield 3.2%.

Proctor & Gamble trades at 11.1x free cash flow, a discount to the industry average of 17.1x. It is a Zacks #3 Rank (Hold) stock.

International Business Machines (IBM) may be famous for its hardware business, but it has been (successfully) transitioning to a services firm, which now accounts for more than half of total revenues.

IBM has been aggressively buying back its stock. In 2010, Big Blue spent over $15 billion repurchasing its common stock.

The company has also been steadily raising its dividend. Since 2002, IBM has raised its dividend every year and at a compound annual rate of 18.6%. It currently yields 1.6%.

Shares are trading at 12.7x free cash flow. It is a Zacks #3 Rank (Hold) stock.

Verizon Communications (VZ) may spend close to $17 billion on capital expenditures every year, but the company takes in nearly twice that in operating cash.

The company has been consistently increasing its free cash flow year after year, and it has been rewarding its shareholders as a result. It has been aggressively paying down debt and still has room to pay a dividend that yields a juicy 5.4%.

Verizon trades at just 6.4x free cash flow, well below the industry multiple of 10.3x. It is a Zacks #3 Rank (Hold) stock.

Todd Bunton is the Growth & Income Stock Strategist for Zacks.com.

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