The Gold Report: In the 11 years that you've been investing in gold juniors, you've recorded an annual rate of return of approximately 70%. Going back to 2000, most brokers and money managers likely would've categorized your investment strategy as very risky. However, you've stated that you always felt it's been very safe because you understand the Kondratieff Cycle. What about the Cycle gave you the confidence to go long on gold and gold juniors?
Ian Gordon: I knew that the big bull markets in stocks always occur in the autumn of the cycle; and in 1999, I was confident that the autumn bull market that started in 1982 was coming to an end due to the massive ongoing speculation, particularly in the dot.com stocks. A new issue was coming to the market every day and once it did, the price rose two to three times on the first day of issue. That kind of speculation, and the fact that some things should never have even been allowed to come to the market, indicated to me that we were coming to the end of the big autumn bull market—sort of like the frenzied days in the summer of 1929.
When such big bull markets end—as it did in January 2000 for the Dow and March 2000 for the NASDAQ—it's a signal that you're going into the Kondratieff Winter period. This is the time when debt is wrung out of the economy, essentially. Knowing that, and knowing what happened following the '29 autumn stock market peak that signaled the onset of winter, I knew the end of the big bull market would be extremely bullish for gold just as it was following the 1929 stock market peak. (more)
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