Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Today in Commodities: Another One Bites the Dust

Eight months are gone and many traders are happy to see this one behind them. Ugly action in Crude with prices approaching their lows from last week after today’s action. The wind has been taken from the bulls' sails but as long as $71 holds on a closing basis we think we’re close to an interim bottom. That being said we expect nothing more than a $8-10 trading range; on the front month we see that as $71-$79/81. Natural gas may be carving out a bottom; we’re suggesting longs in futures with tight stops or purchasing call spreads in the month of November.

Say it is not so a triple bottom in the making in US stock indices; in the Dow just above 9900 and in the S&P at roughly 1035. Those that agree should treat this as a trading range buying near 1040 and selling near 1100 in the S&P. Bullish engulfing candle in cocoa with a significant volume spike today; initial signs of a key reversal…stay tuned. Failed higher trade in sugar; clients have been advised to gain short exposure as we expect a 10% depreciation in the coming weeks. Lumber traded down limit; we will be looking for a spike higher in the coming weeks to cut losses for clients. (more)

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