Corn – First things first, I have to eat some crow. I was of the opinion that Dec ‘10 corn had made its high on the Thursday we hit $4.38 3/4 for the session high. The market proved me wrong on Friday by printing a new high but it failed to close above the old high of $4.38 3/4. I’ve been saying all along that I needed to see two if not three consecutive closes above $4.38 3/4 before I changed my tune and would get friendly to the corn market. 
I keep getting warning signs that the corn is nearly done but it has been admittedly stubborn at current levels and would make one think it wants to go higher. Early reports of corn yields have come in less than last year but in my opinion that isn’t necessarily uncommon for early harvest acres. I think we really need to get into the thick of harvest before we make a “good” assumption of crop size. I’ve been hearing a lot of “it just isn’t out there” type talk as it relates to the corn crop but I usually pay no attention to it because it is hard to tell what the nation will produce based off of field samples. Yes, it is the best thing we have to predict the crop size but when put into perspective it is just like making marketing decisions, it is an educated guess. I gave up on guessing crop size back in 2004 when we had a cool wet summer (at least in my backyard) and the crop was so far behind. I thought for sure we were going to have a small crop, much less than what the trade was thinking. Yep, you guessed it. A record crop. Needless to say I don’t spend much energy on trying to guess the crop size other than we have had a lot of rain and if the corn crop can surprise us in drought years what can it do in wet years? I don’t have the answer but the question is one I ask myself often. Don’t get caught up in the HYPE!! (more)
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