Charles Nenner: The Whole Economy is Turning Down

On the economy, Renowned analyst Charles Nenner predicts, “If you look at the business cycle, then you see the whole thing is turning down. It’s very regular. The problem is that we are not turning down from a GDP at 6%, we are turning down from a GDP of 1%. So, soon we are going to be very negative, and we are going to be in for a very negative deflationary crisis. It doesn’t mean the stock market is going to collapse now. It’s going to be the end of 2017. It’s one and a half years away. I think we could rally before the end of the year, but it will be a catastrophe in 2017. The Dow is going to 5,000 . . . by 2021. I have been saying this for years. If you are not safe before 2017, you can lose everything you have.”

Also, on the economy, Nenner warns, “It’s going to be very bad. My cycles show now unemployment is going up, which is another deflationary problem. Profits of companies will be very bad. . . . Everything is going to turn down. . . . The dollar is getting ready to go into a bear market, and next year will be the year of the Euro.”

On gold and silver, Nenner says, “I don’t think it will test the lows again, and it will take off in the first quarter of next year.”

Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC)

Vulcan Materials Company produces and sells construction aggregates, asphalt mix, and ready-mixed concrete primarily in the United States. It operates through four segments: Aggregates, Asphalt Mix, Concrete, and Calcium. The Aggregates segment offers crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates, as well as related products and services. The Asphalt Mix segment offers asphalt mix in Arizona, California, and Texas. The Concrete segment produces and sells ready-mixed concrete in Georgia, Maryland, New Mexico, Texas, Virginia, Washington D.C., and the Bahamas. The Calcium segment mines, produces, and sells calcium products for the animal feed, paint, plastics, water treatment, and joint compound industries.
Take a look at the 2-year chart of Vulcan (NYSE: VMC) below with my added notations:

Over the past 3 months VMC has created a key level of support (red) at $85. That line is also the “neckline” for the stock’s head and shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern. Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (blue). Confirmation of the H&S would occur if VMC breaks the support, and lower prices would be expected from there.

The Tale of the Tape: VMC has formed a head & shoulders pattern. A long trade could be made at $85 with a stop placed below that level, but ideally, the pattern implies a short trade to be entered on a break below that level instead.

Honeywell $HON Stock Breaking Down From 4-Year Bull Market

Honeywell International Inc. (HON) — This is the world’s largest manufacturer of electronic systems used on aircraft, small jet engines and climate control equipment. Honeywell also makes industrial materials and automotive products.

On Friday, the company reported third-quarter earnings of $1.60 per share, up from $1.47 a year ago and beating the consensus estimate of $1.55. But revenue of $9.61 billion fell from $10.11 billion last year and missed estimates of $9.85 billion.

For the full year, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research forecasts revenue will decline 3% based in part on weak U.S. defense sales and currency headwinds. Its analysts also note additional weakness in the global economy could negatively impact the stock.

On Aug. 21, HON stock broke down from a bull market that had lasted more than four years. As with many stocks, the Aug. 24 low appeared to be a short-term low and perhaps even a bottom.
However, on a rebound, HON stock failed to successfully challenge its 200-day moving average, falling below $92. A subsequent rally failed again to successfully challenge the 200-day moving average at $102.

HON stock closed 1.5% lower on very high volume following Friday’s earnings announcement. The current pattern is that of a bearish “horn.”Traders should sell HON stock short at $99 with a target of $85 for a potential gain of 14%. A stop-loss order should be entered at $104.

If you hold shares short through Honeywell’s ex-dividend date, expected in mid-November, you will be required to pay the dividend to the owner of the stock. The company pays a quarterly dividend of 51 cents per share for a current forward annual yield of 2.1%. Also, check with your broker for any unusual restrictions on shorting this or any other stock.

Twitter $TWTR, Aerie Pharmaceuticals $AERI, Arena Pharma $ARNA

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) had a strong bullish momentum on Friday after Steve Ballmer reveals 4% stake. The stock closed the day with a gain of 4.85 per cent at 31.15 on strong volume after touching the day's high of 31.40. From a technical standpoint, the bias is bullish in nearest term. Key resistance is seen at 31.50. A clear break and daily close above this area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 33.51 or higher. The stock stayed above the 50-day EMA and the MACD and RSI still in buy mode. Long setup.

Aerie Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:AERI) attempted to push lower on Friday bottomed at 20.50 but quickly whipsawed to the upside and closed slightly below the key resistance zone. A clear break and consistent movement above the 21.43 level next week could trigger further bullish pressure testing the 25.50 area. MACD is about to trigger a new buy signal with Slow Stochastic pointing upwards. Long setup on watch.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) Will watch to see if it can break this horizontal resistance line next week. Key momentum indicators are trending in a positive direction. The bias remains bullish but the 2.54 area needs to be clearly broken to the upside to continue the bullish scenario. The immediate support is seen around 2.24/2.26.

Discovery Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: DISCK)

Discovery Communications, Inc. operates as a media company. The company operates through U.S. Networks; International Networks; and Education and Other segments. The company owns and operates television networks under the brands, such as Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet, Investigation Discovery, Science, Velocity, Discovery Family, American Heroes, Destination America, Discovery Life, Oprah Winfrey network, Eurosport, DMAX, and Discovery Kids. Its content spans genres, including survival, exploration, sports, lifestyle, general entertainment, heroes, adventure, crime and investigation, health, and kids. The company also distributes content across various platforms, such as brand-aligned Websites, Web-native networks, on-line streaming, mobile devices, video on demand (VOD), and broadband channels; and operates radio stations and Websites.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Discovery (NASDAQ: DISCK) below with the added notations:

DISCK has been taking gradual steps lower throughout the past year. Along the way, the $28 price level (purple) has become very important to the stock, specifically over the past 9 months. Not only was $28 a key support back in January and May, that level has also been hit as resistance a couple of times in August.

The Tale of the Tape: DISCK has a key level at $28. A trader could enter a long position on a break above $28 with a stop placed under the level. However, if traders are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made instead at the $28 resistance.

Philip Morris Intl. Inc. (PM)

Company Profile: Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, other tobacco products, and other nicotine-containing products. Its portfolio of brands comprise Marlboro, Merit, Parliament, Virginia Slims, L&M, Chesterfield, Bond Street, Lark, Muratti, Next, Philip Morris, and Red & White. 

Fundamentals:
Trailing P/E: 18.89
Forward P/E: 18.64
EPS: 4.65
Beta: 1.048
PEG: 4.98
P/S: 4.83
Profit Margin: 26.22%
Operating Margin: 40.89%
ROA: 20.93%
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -9.90%
Current Ratio: 1.00

Additional fundamental data: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PM

Technicals:
Recently broke out of a 28-month consolidation
New 52-week high
New all-time high
Buying momentum is positive and rising
Buying volume is neutral
Accumulation is rising and at a 5-year high
PM is outperforming the S&P 500 since July 2015
Support is at $86

The safety stop is at $84

The target is at $100

Note: If PM moves past the target, we suggest using a 3% trailing stop.

Gold Forecast: Time For A Top And Then Another Drop

In this updated gold price forecast, we will look at short, intermediate and long-term gold price targets. I also have a silver price forecast explaining the possibilities of a $300 price target for silver and how I plan to turn precious metal profits into lasting wealth. Our unique approach combines cycles work with technical analysis to give estimated market timing and potential target areas. Current indicators suggest the gold price is close to forming a top and once formed prices should head lower into a biannual cycle low by year end. In the remainder of this exclusive gold forecast we will focus on various price charts and give brief summaries of the present technical environment.

Since this correction began in 2011, prices have stayed in somewhat of a predictable pattern. This pattern includes gold prices forming biannual cycle tops within certain time parameters and prices holding to specific moving averages. The daily chart pictured below shows prices are now attacking the downward sloping 200-day moving average (pink line at $1,176.29). Gold prices have struggled with the 200-day moving average and therefore, this seems like a potential termination area. If prices close above $1,206 for more than two days in a row, I will be forced recalculate the target area. Our premium newsletter is focused on identifying topping patterns and we will alert subscribers once confirmed. Note: The slow stochastics indicator (shown above the price) is in overbought territory, a crossover from this area has often signaled the biannual cycle top.  (more)