US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	Actual	forecast	previous
MONDAY, JUNE 11
	None scheduled
TUESDAY, JUNE 12
8:30 am	Import price index	May		-1.4%	-0.5%
2 pm	Federal budget	May		--	-$58 bln
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13
8:30 am	Retail sales	May		-0.3%	0.1%
8:30 am	Retail sales ex-autos	May		-0.1%	0.1%
8:30 am	Producer price index	May		-1.0%	-0.2%
8:30 am	Core PPI	May		0.2%	0.2%
THURSDAY, JUNE 14
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	6-9		377,000	377,000
8:30 am	Consumer price index	May		-0.2%	0.0%
8:30 am	Core CPI	May		0.2%	0.2%
8:30 am	Current account deficit	1Q		--	-$124 bln
FRIDAY, JUNE 15
8:30 am	Empire state index	June		13.5	17.1
9:15 am	Industrial production	May		-0.1%	1.1%
9:55 am	UMich consumer sentiment index	June		78.0	79.3

2012 Will The World Economy Take The Greatest Plunge

Sheikh Imran Hosein - 2012 Will The World Economy Take The Greatest Plunge .Sheikh Imran Hossien Starts Speaking At 32 Minutes In our time, a barbaric superstition born in antiquity and nurtured through the ages by a semi-secret priesthood, has returned to plague us in the form of a political movement supported by great wealth and power in all great capitals of the world. Through the two methods used, revolution from below and the corruption of governments from above, it has come far towards success in a fantastic ambition of achieving world dominion, using these two instruments to incite nations against each other.



Imran Nazar Hosein is a leading International Islamic Philosopher, Scholar and author, specialising in world politics, economy, eschatology , modern socio-economic/political issues and expert on international affairs. He is best- selling author of Jerusalem in the Qur'an. Imran Nazar Hosein was born on the Caribbean island of Trinidad in 1942 to parents whose ancestors had migrated from India as indentured labourers. He studied Islam, Philosophy and International Relations at several universities and institutions of higher learning. Among them are al-Azhar University in Cairo, Egypt, the Institute of International Relations of the University of the West Indies in Trinidad, the University of Karachi in Pakistan, the Aleemiyah Institute of Islamic Studies in Karachi, Pakistan, and the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.

Eric Sprott: Gold Alert (June 8, 2012)

There have been key devel­op­ments in the phys­i­cal gold mar­ket over the last few weeks which we feel are worth highlighting:

1) The Chi­nese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes¹. It is not the data for April alone which has caught our eye. There has been a stun­ning increase of gold imports through Hong Kong for export into China over the past 2 years. Between May 2010 and April 2011, China imported a net 66 tonnes of phys­i­cal gold through Hong Kong. Between May 2011 and April 2012, that num­ber jumped to 489 tonnes. This rep­re­sents an increase of 640%.

HONG KONG GOLD EXPORTS TO CHINA (KG)

Source: Cen­sus and Sta­tis­tics Depart­ment of Hong Kong

2) Cen­tral banks from around the world bought over 70 tonnes of gold in April, 2012. Data from the IMF showed devel­op­ing coun­tries such as the Philip­pines, Turkey, Mex­ico and Sri Lanka were sig­nif­i­cant buy­ers of gold as prices dipped².

3) Iran pur­chased $1.2B worth of gold in April, 2012 through Turkey. As the devel­oped nations con­tinue devalu­ing their cur­rency at the expense of devel­op­ing nations, coun­tries such as Iran, China and Mex­ico are forced to look at alter­na­tive stores of value³.

4) After twenty years of lack­lus­ter returns and stag­nant bond yields, Japan­ese pen­sion funds have finally dis­cov­ered the value of invest­ing in gold. The $500M Okayama Metal and Machin­ery pen­sion fund placed 1.5% of its assets into gold bullion-backed ETFs in April in order to "escape sov­er­eign risk"⁴.

5) Bill Gross writes⁵, "Soar­ing debt/GDP ratios in pre­vi­ously sacro­sanct AAA coun­tries have made low cost fund­ing increas­ingly a func­tion of cen­tral banks as opposed to pri­vate mar­ket investors. Both the lower qual­ity and lower yields of pre­vi­ously sacro­sanct debt there­fore rep­re­sent a poten­tial break­ing point in our now 40-year-old global mon­e­tary sys­tem. […] As they (investors) ques­tion the value of much of the $200 tril­lion which com­prises our cur­rent sys­tem, they move mar­gin­ally else­where — to real assets such as land, gold and tan­gi­ble things, or to cash and a fig­u­ra­tive mat­tress where at least their money is read­ily acces­si­ble". Is the bond king rec­om­mend­ing gold? YES, YES YES!

6) The Gold Min­ing ETF, GDX, has seen strong inflows in the past 3 months. The num­ber of units out­stand­ing have increased from 162.5M⁶ to roughly 187M⁷ between March 1, 2012 and May 31, 2012. This rep­re­sents an increase in assets of almost $1.2B in a span of 3 months. It is worth point­ing out that for a major­ity of this three months period, GDX, and by exten­sion the gold min­ing com­pa­nies were expe­ri­enc­ing sig­nif­i­cant declines in their mar­ket values.

We believe there has been a mate­r­ial change in the gold invest­ing land­scape. The HUI, which is the Gold Bugs Index, is now up over 20% from its lows since May 16th, 2012. The slide in gold equi­ties seems to be sub­sid­ing as a foun­da­tion for a strong move upwards is set. New buy­ers, rep­re­sented by the Chi­nese, cen­tral banks, Japan­ese pen­sion funds and the Ira­ni­ans, bought almost 140 tonnes of gold in April alone. To put this into per­spec­tive, the annual gold pro­duc­tion is approx­i­mately 2600 tonnes⁸. China and Rus­sia pro­duce around 500 tonnes of gold annu­ally, which never makes it to the open mar­ket. This leaves about 2100 tonnes of gold pro­duc­tion annu­ally for the rest of the world.

When buy­ers rep­re­sent­ing 140 tonnes of new demand enter a mar­ket which only has 175 tonnes of monthly sup­ply, we are left won­der­ing about two things:

1) In a bal­anced mar­ket, where is the source of sup­ply to the new buy­ers going to come from?

2) How can a new buyer of size get into the gold mar­ket, which is already bal­anced, with­out sig­nif­i­cantly impact­ing the price of gold?

The answer is fairly obvi­ous. When demand out­strips sup­ply, prices move higher. These sig­nif­i­cant macro changes in the sup­ply­de­mand dynamic of the gold mar­ket should pro­pel the price of gold to new highs.

What the Bible can teach you about investing today

Ron Blue has an investment philosophy you don't hear very often these days. Specifically, the Founder and Managing Director of Kingdom Advisors says the old proverbs found in the Bible hold the keys to today's investment success.

Blue began reading and studying the bible only after becoming well-versed in the tenets of financial reporting as a Certified Public Accountant. What surprised him was the degree to which doing either effectively came down to the same basic rules. Blue recently came on Breakout to share some of these proverbs and how their meanings apply to investors of any faith.

1) Establish Written Financial Goals

"The plans of the diligent lead to profit as surely as haste leads to poverty." -Proverbs 21:5

Write down your end target then determine your steps towards getting there. A little bit at a time, all of the time, is a wiser plan than taken frantic all-or-nothing shots.

2) Save and Invest Before You Spend

"Put your outdoor work in order and get your fields ready; after that, build your house." -Proverbs 24:27

As Blue puts it, "don't spend in the short-term because you won't have it in the long-term."

3) Keep a Long Term Perspective

"Suppose one of you wants to build a tower. Won't you first sit down and estimate the cost to see if you have enough money to complete it?" -Luke 14:28

In other words, know what you need to set aside to reach your savings goals. Your time frame is going to vary depending what your personal goals. Saving for college may be a 15-year strategy while retirement planning could involve more than 40 years. The runs are different depending on the size of your intended tower.

4) Diversify Your Portfolio

"Divide your portion to seven, or even eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth." -Ecclesiastes 11:2

Even when Ecclesiastes was written 2,500 years ago people needed to have diversification. Blue suggests not just a range of stocks but assets: some venture capital, stocks, bonds and real estate for example, though readers needs may vary. The goal isn't eliminating failures but anticipating them by having an assortment of investments.

5) Do Not Take on More Risk Than You Can Afford

"I have seen a grievous evil under the sun; wealth hoarded to the harm of its owners." -Ecclesiastes 5:13

If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Nobody knows where the stock market is going to go, says Blue. There is no free lunch. As Blue puts it, "You can't be guaranteed of returns, and if you're trying to get that you're probably taking more risk than you should."

London Trader – Staggering 515 Tons of Gold Sold in 4 Hours

kingworldnews.com / by Eric King / June 8, 2012

With many global investors still rattled by the recent price action in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on these markets. The source told KWN that not only was a shocking amount of paper gold sold in just 4 hours yesterday, but it was also confirmed that the mainstream media is not reporting the staggering amount of physical gold that has actually been purchased by China recently. Here is what the source had to say: “China has purchased hundreds of tons of gold in the last couple of months. China is not disclosing what their true reserves are. Russia is delaying disclosure and so is Iran. We saw record gold imports of over 100 tons through Hong Kong to China in April, as reported by the mainstream media, but what has been reported is just the tip of the iceberg.”

The London Trader continues:

“What we’ve seen is a dramatic acceleration of physical gold purchases as the price has been drawn down. Staggering amounts of physical gold are being purchased. The acceleration of physical purchases, at these lower levels, is the reason why gold has been holding firm and building such a nice base.

I want to be very clear about this, in addition to what is being reported by the mainstream media, we have seen hundreds of tons of additional physical gold being purchased by China over the last three months….

READ MORE

Europe's Currency Crisis: A Look at Possible Scenarios

by Tat­jana Michel, Direc­tor, Cur­rency Analy­sis, Schwab Cen­ter for Finan­cial Research

Key points

• A Greek exit from the euro­zone has gone from "unthink­able" to a dis­tinct pos­si­bil­ity. Years of steep eco­nomic decline and unsus­tain­able pub­lic debt have increased the odds that the coun­try will once again default on its debt and pos­si­bly return to the drachma.
• A Greek default/exit would present risks to the Euro­pean bank­ing sys­tem, could cause a severe down­turn in the Greek econ­omy and might trig­ger con­ta­gion that spreads to coun­tries like Spain, Ire­land and Portugal.
• The Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank and other insti­tu­tions the­o­ret­i­cally have tools to lower con­ta­gion risk, but may lack the time and polit­i­cal will to use them.
• Ulti­mately, the exit of one coun­try from the euro could lead to the exits of other coun­tries and a breakup of the euro as it's cur­rently known.
• We sug­gest investors limit expo­sure to Euro­pean bond mar­kets and the euro, both of which are likely to expe­ri­ence more downside.

The May 6 elec­tions in Greece ousted the party that had nego­ti­ated and agreed to the bailout pack­age offered by the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank (ECB), Inter­na­tional Mon­e­tary Fund (IMF) and Euro­pean Com­mis­sion (EC). This group, often referred to as the "troika," pro­vided bailout fund­ing to the Greek gov­ern­ment so that it could cover its debt pay­ments in exchange for a promise that the coun­try would bring its bud­get deficit and debt down by reduc­ing spend­ing and rais­ing taxes. Greek vot­ers have effec­tively rejected the agree­ment because of the neg­a­tive impact that spend­ing cuts have on their econ­omy, which is already in deep reces­sion. No party won a major­ity in par­lia­ment in the May elec­tions and a coali­tion could not be formed. There­fore, new elec­tions are sched­uled on June 17.

If the new gov­ern­ment insists on rene­go­ti­at­ing the terms of the cur­rent bailout plan, new talks with the troika will have to take place shortly after the elec­tion. If there is no agree­ment, the troika could decide to deny Greece its next chunk of bail-out money, which would likely lead to a default on Greece's sov­er­eign bonds.

Greece needs to form a new gov­ern­ment and reach an agree­ment with the troika before it runs out of money in July 2012. If they reach an agree­ment, Greece is likely to stay in the euro­zone but would need to stick to the new aus­ter­ity plan to con­tinue receiv­ing aid.

Greek opin­ion polls show elec­tions are wide open

Accord­ing to recent poll results, the June 17 elec­tions are wide open and could very well lead to a gov­ern­ment that meets Europe's terms for keep­ing Greece in the euro. How­ever, it could also put in power a coali­tion gov­ern­ment that's firmly against austerity—positioning Greece for an exit from the euro. (more)

Weak Technicals for Longer-Term Oil

Apart from all the chaos and confusion in the financial markets, one look at the ugly technical condition of the longer-term Crude Oil chart, and we have to wonder if the forces of economic contraction (deflation) are on the verge of becoming overwhelming, or overwhelming any ability of policymakers to do much about the situation?

Purely from a technical perspective, three aspects of the big picture chart analytics are VERY significant here: First, oil has violated its major support line off of the Dec 2008 low at $32.48, which cut across the price axis at $85.20. Second, my weekly momentum gauge confirms the lows, and third, prices are "threatening" to close the week right near the 6/04 low at $81.21, and beneath the aformentioned major support line, poised to press directly towards a test of the Oct.2011 low at $74.95.

What does this chart say about demand for oil, gasoline, the US consumer, and the US economy? Nothing good at the moment. ETF traders may want to keep an eye on the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO).