Arca Biopharma Inc (NASDAQ:ABIO)

Arca Biopharma Inc (NASDAQ:ABIO) broke out of a bottom/accumulation pattern today, as the stock closed up 47c or 8.94% on heavy volume, closing above the 50-day EMA for the first time in months. Today’s high is resistance for a follow through move on Tuesday. Looking at the technical chart above MACD and ADX both signal positive strength. The stock still trading above 9-day and 20-day exp moving average, also a bullish sign. Plus, the company will make a presentation at the 27th Annual Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, December 1 2015. I believe this conference on Wednesday could be a positive catalyst for ARCA biopharma shares.

Canadian Dollar and the Two-Year Rate Differential

The Canadian dollar is more than a petro currency.    It is also subject to the same forces of divergence that have lifted the US dollar more broadly.  Since the beginning of the year, the US two-year yield has risen 26 bp while Canada's two-year yield has fallen almost 39 bp.

The graph shows two time series.  The yellow line is the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.  The white line is the two-year yield spread. 

Earlier today the US dollar tested the multi-year high set in late-September just below CAD1.3460.  Today's high (according to Bloomberg) was about CAD1.3435.   The two-year yield spread reached a little more than 32.5 bp.   The multi-year high set in early August was a tenth of a basis point higher. 

Consider what has happened since the middle of October, when the recent moves began.  The US dollar traded a little below  CAD1.2835. It rallied six big figures in a little less than six weeks.  The two-year differential fell to a low below 3 bp on October 15.  It has risen 29 bp over the same period. 

Oil prices also fell during this period.  Note that the January 16 light sweet futures contract put in the recent high near $52 a barrel on October 10.  By October 15 it reached a low of almost $46.60.  It traded almost $40.40 today. 

The argument here is not that the price of oil does not impact the Canadian dollar.  It is that the flow of capital is larger than the flow of oil and that the Canadian dollar is subject to the same divergence force that is lifted the US dollar against most currencies. 

Avis Budget Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CAR)

Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary services to businesses and consumers worldwide. The company has three segments: North America, International, and Truck Rental. It operates the Avis car rental system with approximately 5,450 locations, that supply rental cars to the premium commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry; the Budget vehicle rental system with approximately 3,500 car rental locations, which serve the value-conscious segments of the industry; and Zipcar, a membership-based car sharing network that provides vehicles to approximately 915,000 members.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Avis (NASDAQ: CAR) with the added notations:

CAR has been trading mostly sideways on top of a clear $40 support (green) during the most recent 4 months. Now that the stock appears to be testing that support level again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, the stock’s recent dive is a bit concerning. If the $40 support were to break, lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: CAR has a key level of support at $40. A trader could enter a long position at $40 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX), Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA), Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL)

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX) which has been building momentum since late-October, broke out of its bullish consolidation on massive volume on news that its Rintega brain cancer vaccine reduced the risk of death from the disease by 47 percent in a 73 patient randomized study. Plus, the survival rate at 2 years was 25% for patients given the vaccine versus none in the control group, so I was motivated to buy more shares. This move broke the stock out of a triple top resistance zone that contained the upmove since August. From a technical standpoint daily technical indicators are looking bullish. The MACD is above its signal line and is moving up in positive territory. CMF is also positive and RSI has moved above its 60% level. On longer-term daily chart, the stock is trading below its 100-day and 200-day EMAs but well above its rising 50-day EMA. The short-term bull market is intact, despite being in a bear market in the medium-term. I think the stock next week can easily re-visit its 200-day EMA at $18.48, if not higher. Based on Friday's news, I expect upgrades coming soon.

 

Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA) traded nicely on Friday and I’m looking for continuation of the upward direction next week. The stock is a short squeeze candidate, with a short float at 43% equivalent to 6 days of average volume. From a technical standpoint, the daily technical chart shows that the stock is in a rally as %K line is rising on top of %D line as the price is back above the short-term EMAs and with a positive MACD action. The RSI is also rising along with the rise in volumes indicates buying interest in the stock. At the same time, price broke out of downtrend line which goes back to the September top. Can get interesting. Keep close eye on this one for a major rally to the upside.
  

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has a bullish looking chart. Price broke out to a new all-time high Friday, accompanied by a good volume suggesting higher levels.The stock has been in a nice uptrend for the last two months and it looks very strong with both 50-day and 200-day exp moving averages going up while %K line is on top of %D line. Long setup.

5 Gold and Silver Stocks Starting to Shine: SLW, AG, GG, ABX, KGC

Precious metals and related mining stocks have been under a historic, soul-crushing selloff in recent weeks, as investors worry if the Federal Reserve — on rising odds of interest rate liftoff in December — is heading into a policy mistake with inflation still below target.

Inflation just isn’t a clear and present threat: Producer price inflation is cratering, dropping at a 1.6 percent annual rate as of October on a persistent drop in food prices.

On Monday, wholesale gasoline futures tested down to $1.20 a gallon — a level not seen since early 2009. Copper and crude oil are similarly weak. Other measures from China factory gate prices to U.S import prices all tell the same story.  (more)

Could Gold Bottom In The Next 3 Days?

On Friday as the markets were closing I received an email update from another widely followed newsletter writer who has been correctly, extremely negative on the entire commodity sector for a few years.

In his update, he states that his cycle work indicates that gold will bottom on November 24-25.

WOW, that is this coming Tuesday and Wednesday and precedes the Thanksgiving Holiday in the United States.  (more)

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	ACTUAL	forecast	previous
MONDAY, NOV. 23
10 am	Existing home sales	Oct.		5.44 mln	5.55 mln
TUESDAY,  NOV. 24
8:30 am	Advance trade in goods	Oct.		--	-$58.6 bln
8:30 am	GDP revision	3Q		2.1%	1.5%
9 am	Case-Shiller home prices	Sept.
10 am	Consumer confidence	Nov.		100.0	97.6
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 25
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	Nov. 21		N/A	N/A
8:30 am	Personal income	Oct.		0.4%	0.1%
8:30 am	Consumer spending	Oct.		0.2%	0.1%
8:30 am	Core inflation	Oct.		--	0.1%
8:30 am	Durable goods orders	Oct.		1.8%	-1.2%
9 am	FHFA home prices	Sept.
10 am	New home sales	Oct.		510,000	468,000
10 am	Consumer sentiment	Nov.		--	93.1
THURSDAY, NOV. 26
	Thanksgiving Day None scheduled
FRIDAY, NOV. 27
	None scheduled