Nasdaq-100 Breaks 3000, First Time Since 2000

Up 195% from the Nov 2008 lows, the Nasdaq-100 has now broken back above the magical 3000 level. A level first seen in Nov 1999 (back then it took 4 more weeks to hit 4000). How long until CNBC adds a countdown timer to the Nasdaq all-time high?


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Is Lumber The New Baltic Dry?

Lumber is limit down once again. It has been falling now for two months in a very 'non-housing-recovery'-like manner. Of course, when Lumber prices are rising, everything is bullish and it merely serves to confirm the exuberance and bias to optimism that we should all have. However, just like the Baltic Dry Index, when it's falling it is a bullish sign that the market is over-supplied in anticipation of good things to come. With Lumber's two-month lead over stocks signaling the equity market may well be a little ahead of itself, it seems the supply-demand balance is off in the construction materials business (which one is off - supply or demand) but have no fear, just as with the Baltic Dry, it will come back if we just keep hoping. Or did the actions of a central-bank inspire confidence once again in the 'wrong' industry and spark another mal-investment boom?

The Baltic Dry - now meaningless (if we build it, they will come... at some point, we promise, Bernanke said!!)...


as a leading Lumber futures price is now ignored by 'market' reality too...

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ITT Educational Services, Inc. (NYSE: ESI)

ITT Educational Services, Inc. provides postsecondary degree programs in the United States. It offers master, bachelor, associate, and career oriented education programs in various fields, such as information technology, electronics technology, drafting and design, business, criminal justice, and nursing and health sciences. The company's information technology programs include communications, network administration, network technology, software development, systems technology, and technical support; and electronics technology programs comprise communications, computer technology, electronics product design and fabrication, industrial electronics, instrumentation, and telecommunications. Its drafting and design programs consist of architectural and construction drafting, civil drafting, computer aided drafting, electrical and electronics drafting, interior design, landscape architecture, mechanical drafting, and multimedia communications; business programs comprise accounting, business administration, financial services, manufacturing, marketing and advertising, and sales; and criminal justice programs include corrections, cyber security, investigations, and security and policing. The company's health sciences programs comprise health information technology and nursing.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of ESI (ITT Educational Services, Inc.) below with my added notations:
ESI peaked last July at $65 and lost more than 80% of its value from there. The stock seems to be forming a base over the last (6) months all the while hitting a very important level of resistance at $20 (red). No matter what the market has or has not done since December, ESI has not been able to break through that area of resistance. If the stock can finally move above $20, higher prices for the stock should follow.
The Tale of the Tape: ESI has a key level of resistance at $20. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $20.
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The Dow Is at a Record High, but Institutions Are Selling

The shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) have been on a steady climb since plummeting to $385.10 on April 19; but my sense is that the buying has largely been driven by retail investors and not from where it counts with the institutional money, based on my stock analysis.
Insiders and the institutional money are not as supportive of Apple, according to my stock analysis. Over the last six months, insiders have sold Apple in 10 transactions totaling 127,896 shares, while there was only one insider buy of 1,780 shares, according to information by Thomson Financial.
Institutional buying, which I believe is the key to stocks due to their knowledge on the companies, is also refraining from buying Apple, even at the much lower price. My stock analysis indicates that institutions have unloaded 27.8 million shares of Apple with institutional investors’ ownership declining 4.5% on a quarter-to-quarter basis, according to Thomson Financial. Some of the biggest sellers include Capital World Investors (-56.3% in Apple stock), Wellington Management (-48.9%), HSBC Holdings (-62.6%), and BlackRock Advisors LLC (-48.2%). My stock analysis notes that this selling suggests a lack of confidence in the company, even with Apple shares plummeting down more than 40% since the company’s high point.
Based on the lack of buying by the insiders and institutions, I would still be wary of buying Apple at this point. In my view, Apple is more of a trading opportunity than a buy-and-hold.
The reality is that following where the professional money is flowing gives us another tool to evaluate the stock market and get a sense of what is happening.
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Is Crude Oil Ready For A Breakout And Would It Help Gold?

by Przemyslaw Radomski
Gold Seek

Jim Rogers recently said in an interview to Morningstar, that he is not disturbed by the recent tumble in gold prices.
“Gold had gone up 12 years in a row, without a down year, which is extremely unusual in any asset. Equally important, gold has only had one 30% correction in 12 years. Again, that is extremely unusual. Most things correct 30-40% every year or two. So the action in gold has been very unique and gold needed a correction. The main thing that caused it, as far as I am concerned, was that the market was ready. It needed it and it is good for gold to have a proper correction,” said Rogers. We agree. At the same time we would like to point out that this has no implications on the short term.
How does he see the future for gold?
Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

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Railroad Industry Stock Outlook - May 2013: UNP NSC KSU CSX CP CNI

Consistent with the current macroeconomic trends, railroads started the year on a mixed note. Going by the rail traffic report for the first quarter 2013, growth in automotive and petroleum products’ shipments was steady while coal and grain shipments continued to cast a shadow over the rail freight industry.

According to the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) rail traffic report, cumulative performance of the North American railroads (including U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads) have fallen 1.5% year over year in the first quarter of the year. The biggest contributor to this decline was grain, which dropped 11%. Coal volumes followed closely, falling around 7%.

Going by the quarterly performance of the class 1 railroad, we see continued lower volumes from most of these carriers. One of the largest class 1 railroads in North America -- Union Pacific Corp. ( UNP - Analyst Report ) -- registered first quarter volume decline of 2% year over year. Another major railroad CSX Corp. ( CSX - Analyst Report ) also reported a similar level of decline in its volumes. Going forward, Canadian counterpart, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. ( CP - Analyst Report ) also experienced lackluster growth trend with flat volume growth on a year-over-year basis. (more)

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VIX Chart

news.goldseek.com / By CAPTAINHOOK / Monday, 13 May 2013
No, this has nothing to do with the sci-fi movie. It has everything to do with real life however; life closer to home, because we are living in an increasingly hostile environment characterized by both increasingly difficult and dangerous times. The wars – wars on multiple levels – are coming closer and closer to home every day. And slowly but surely – one by one – increasing numbers of people are beginning to see it because it’s starting to materially affect their lives. They are coming to the realization that even though they may just be simple folks (from wherever), they are at war with extremists all over the world, including those (especially those) at home. And no amount of distraction will change such an enlightening once realized, not what Miley Cyrus is wearing out on her date tonight, not what Kim Kardashian is talking to herself about – nothing.

No, once you have had one of your limbs blown off simply because you were standing at the finish line of marathon you start to ask some hard questions, where the pabulum the establishment’s mainstream media feeds us simply no longer cuts it for many, not those directly affected, or friends and relatives. Of course for most it’s equally difficult to accept the extreme views of conspiracy theorists; however again, when these things come closer to home, like having the entire city of Boston locked down in martial law like conditions so that literally thousands of jackbooted Nazi like hooligans could hunt down a 19-year old kid seems a bit extreme to some, especially since this whole incident could have been manufactured. This is what it was like in Nazi-Germany as a terrified populous allowed their liberties to be stolen by Hitler’s hooligans.
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