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Monday, October 15, 2012
Full Analysis on Platinum/Precious Metals
I would be a buyer with slightly more weakness in this sector. Below
I’ve indicated potential areas of support on the stocks I like in this
sector. I believe this pullback will be swift and extremely volatile,
and it will be bought quickly so you’ll have to be quick on the buy
button. There is just too much strength in the RSI for this rally to be
over.
“To learn more about All About Trends and receive our free report — “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week”, sign up for our free newsletter here.
“To learn more about All About Trends and receive our free report — “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week”, sign up for our free newsletter here.
DIRECTV (NasdaqGS: DTV)
DIRECTV provides digital television entertainment primarily in the
United States and Latin America. The company engages in acquiring,
promoting, selling, and distributing digital entertainment programming
primarily via satellite to residential and commercial subscribers. It
offers direct-to-home digital television services, as well as
multi-channel video programming distribution services under the DIRECTV
and SKY brands. The company provides various channels of digital-quality
video entertainment and CD-quality audio programming directly to
subscribers' homes or businesses, including approximately 170 national
high-definition television channels and 4 3D channels; and
video-on-demand service, which provides movie and television programs to
broadband-connected subscribers. It also provides premium professional
and collegiate sports programming, such as the NFL SUNDAY TICKET package
that allows subscribers to view the NFL games. In addition, the company
owns and operates three regional sports television networks based in
Seattle, Washington; Denver, Colorado; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
under the ROOT SPORTS brand name.
To review DIRECTV's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of DTV (DIRECTV) below with my added notations:
From March until early August, DTV created a key resistance level at $50 (navy). That resistance level was a 52-week high breakout when the stock shot higher in mid-August. That breakout was a sign that the stock should be moving higher, which the stock did do. Now that DTV is pulling back, the old $50 resistance should provide support for the stock.
To review DIRECTV's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of DTV (DIRECTV) below with my added notations:
From March until early August, DTV created a key resistance level at $50 (navy). That resistance level was a 52-week high breakout when the stock shot higher in mid-August. That breakout was a sign that the stock should be moving higher, which the stock did do. Now that DTV is pulling back, the old $50 resistance should provide support for the stock.
China, Russia, and the End of the Petrodollar
Say you’re an up-and-coming superpower wannabe with dreams of
dominating your neighbors and intimidating everyone else. Your ambition
is understandable; rising nations always join the “great game”, both for
their own enrichment and in defense against other big players.
But if you’re Russia or China, there’s something in your way: The old superpower, the US, has the world’s reserve currency, which allows it to run an untouchable military empire basically for free, simply by creating otherwise-worthless pieces of paper and/or their electronic equivalent. Russia and China can’t do that, and would see their currencies and by extension their economies collapse if they tried.
So before they can boot the US military out of Asia and Eastern Europe, they have to strip the dollar of its dominant role in world trade, especially of Middle Eastern oil. And that’s exactly what they’re trying to do. See this excerpt from an excellent longer piece by Economic Collapse Blog’s Michael Snyder: (more)
But if you’re Russia or China, there’s something in your way: The old superpower, the US, has the world’s reserve currency, which allows it to run an untouchable military empire basically for free, simply by creating otherwise-worthless pieces of paper and/or their electronic equivalent. Russia and China can’t do that, and would see their currencies and by extension their economies collapse if they tried.
So before they can boot the US military out of Asia and Eastern Europe, they have to strip the dollar of its dominant role in world trade, especially of Middle Eastern oil. And that’s exactly what they’re trying to do. See this excerpt from an excellent longer piece by Economic Collapse Blog’s Michael Snyder: (more)
Chart Signaling 45% Upside in This Under $3 Stock: SIRI
When I bought a new vehicle last year, it arrived with a free six-month trial to Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI), the commercial-free satellite radio provider. I was skeptical, but took advantage of the trial -- after all, it wasn't costing me anything. But with dozens of free, local radio channels at my fingertips, I couldn't imagine why I'd pay for it.
Fast forward one year and I admit I'm hooked. Sirius has become a part of my driving routine. Most of the time, the channel is parked on classical music, although I occasionally switch to commercial-free talk shows. Now, I find it hard to imagine going back to commercial radio!
It seems I'm not the only one. Sirius has developed a loyal following. The world's largest radio broadcaster, by revenue, currently has 22.9 million subscribers. And this number is regularly increasing.
For the third time this year, the company raised its full-year guidance on net subscribers. Management now expects to add about 1.8 million new subscribers by year-end, up from previous estimates of 1.6 million.
Since many new cars come with a Sirius trial subscription, much of the company's growth is driven by robust North American auto sales. An August Scotiabank Economics report showed double-digit gains in North American car sales so far this year -- the highest level since 2007. Similar increases are expected in the second half of 2012, due to record low interest rates.
Sirius isn't just found in people's cars, however. Commercial-free radio programming has found its place in the home, the office, and in businesses, like restaurants and hair salons. In fact, Sirius is the second-largest subscription-based entertainment provider in the United States behind only Internet movie provider Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). And, according to many industry analysts, Sirius should be able to double its user base in the coming years.
The technicals paint a bullish picture for Sirius. Since December 2010, the stock has been in a major uptrend, rising about 390%. As I'll explain below, the shares show no sign of slowing down.
US Weekly Economic Calendar
| time (et) | report | period | Actual | forecast | previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, Oct. 15 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Retail sales | Sept. | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30 am | Retail sales ex-autos | Sept. | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30 am | Empire state index | Oct. | -4.0 | -10.4 | |
| 10 am | Inventories | Aug. | -- | 0.8% | |
| TUESDAY, Oct. 16 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Consumer price index | Sept. | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30 am | Core CPI | Sept. | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15 am | Industrial production | Sept. | 0.2% | -1.2% | |
| 10 am | Home builders' index | Oct. | 42 | 40 | |
| WEDNESDAY, Oct. 17 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Housing starts | Sept. | 770,000 | 750,000 | |
| THURSDAY, Oct. 18 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | 10-13 | 365,000 | 339,000 | |
| 10 am | Leading indicators | Sept. | 0.2% | -0.1% | |
| 10 am | Philly Fed | Oct. | 0.0 | -1.9 | |
| FRIDAY, Oct. 19 | |||||
| 10 am | Existing home sales | Sept. | 4.80 mln | 4.82 mln | |
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Don't Be a Lemming—Roger Wiegand's Method of Precious Metals Investing
The major financial markets are dominated by large funds that behave
like lemmings—follow the herd and suffer the consequences. Investors
should not fall for the commonly held myth that all professionals have
an edge over smaller institutional and individual investors. In this
exclusive Gold Report interview, Roger Wiegand, editor of Trader Tracks Newsletter, discusses
the criteria he uses to select the best mining and exploration
companies. He then explains how moderate trading within a mostly
buy-and-hold portfolio can lead to superior returns without the
downsides that lemming behavior can cause.
The Gold Report: We are going to talk about "lemming investing," the theme of your most recent newsletter. Who or what are lemmings and how does their behavior drive the market?
Roger Wiegand: The lemmings that drive the market primarily are the big funds, typically mutual funds that manage 401(k) and individual retirement accounts. Most of those funds are set up on a buy-and-hold basis. There are hedge funds with lemming behavior as well, but the hedge funds are more often traders. They are creating a track record of lemming investing as well because of their huge size—billions and billions of dollars. The other sector of the market is the retail investor, with approximately 30% of the market.
TGR: In your recent newsletters, you discuss commonly held investment myths. Near the top of the list was that the largest "professionals" always have special insight unavailable to smaller professionals and individuals. Is that what you're stating here? (more)
The Gold Report: We are going to talk about "lemming investing," the theme of your most recent newsletter. Who or what are lemmings and how does their behavior drive the market?
Roger Wiegand: The lemmings that drive the market primarily are the big funds, typically mutual funds that manage 401(k) and individual retirement accounts. Most of those funds are set up on a buy-and-hold basis. There are hedge funds with lemming behavior as well, but the hedge funds are more often traders. They are creating a track record of lemming investing as well because of their huge size—billions and billions of dollars. The other sector of the market is the retail investor, with approximately 30% of the market.
"We think the old paradigm of buy and hold forever is not a good way to go."The lemming investor market would be most all of the funds and all of the smaller investor's money. The large funds primarily invest money for the smaller investors (being the lemmings). They really control what's going on, and they compose 70% of the market. And they do, in fact, establish the trend. Non-lemming investors are those with large accounts who trade for their own pockets and the pockets of the seven figure and larger trader/investors. This is the sector leading/driving the market with mutual fund managers investing lemming money.
TGR: In your recent newsletters, you discuss commonly held investment myths. Near the top of the list was that the largest "professionals" always have special insight unavailable to smaller professionals and individuals. Is that what you're stating here? (more)
COT Report Is Short Term Bearish For Gold
By Financial Tap
The Gold Cycle looks fairly easy to read; once you strip out any biases you may carry. Quite simply, it’s screaming Investor Cycle top and warning of a significant decline. Sure when viewed through the idea of endless printing and world crises’, one could easily suggest or envision much higher prices before any significant pullback. This type of thinking is actually what drives IC tops, an unrelenting belief that a Cycle will continue higher based on short term speculative interest and a fear of missing another move.
But the facts are that we’re very deep in the timing band for an IC top, we have a very bearish COT report, extreme (bearish) sentiment, and a series of technical indicators and oscillators that are at levels seen during IC Tops. Whenever these sets of conditions have presented themselves together, it has almost always resulted in a significant top. The only exceptions have been the 5 blow-off C-Wave tops, and that’s very far from where we stand with this Cycle. Could it be different this time? Certainly it’s possible; I tend to steer clear of absolute statements or beliefs.
Now on Day 11, it would be highly unusual for Gold to make a new DC high this late in a 5th Daily Cycle. The longest a (5th) Cycle has gone before a top is just 12 days, so based on this history we can assume that the high set on Day 7 at $1,798 will remain the 5th DC top, and therefore the Investor Cycle Top too. With this in mind, at the very minimum a Daily Cycle failure is expected (below $1,738), with an expectations of greater declines, likely below the $1,700 level.
The miners are following the script I’ve outlined for some weeks now. Since the weekend report, the 10 and 20 dma were lost on a closing basis and the lower trend-line was breached. The miners are closer to showing a Cycle failure than gold is, as a move below the Sep 26th lows would set the scene for a decent drop into an ICL.
I really do not have too much more to add regarding our gold framework, I believe I have presented over many weeks a very clear and consistent framework for a coming ICL. As members of this service you all need to plan and act accordingly, I have provided you with a road-map of how I plan to trade this coming period. In the event the framework is wrong and a new upside move above $1,800 takes hold, then a) We still have a decent positions to profit from b) I will likely initiate new trades very quickly above $1,800.
The Gold Cycle looks fairly easy to read; once you strip out any biases you may carry. Quite simply, it’s screaming Investor Cycle top and warning of a significant decline. Sure when viewed through the idea of endless printing and world crises’, one could easily suggest or envision much higher prices before any significant pullback. This type of thinking is actually what drives IC tops, an unrelenting belief that a Cycle will continue higher based on short term speculative interest and a fear of missing another move.
But the facts are that we’re very deep in the timing band for an IC top, we have a very bearish COT report, extreme (bearish) sentiment, and a series of technical indicators and oscillators that are at levels seen during IC Tops. Whenever these sets of conditions have presented themselves together, it has almost always resulted in a significant top. The only exceptions have been the 5 blow-off C-Wave tops, and that’s very far from where we stand with this Cycle. Could it be different this time? Certainly it’s possible; I tend to steer clear of absolute statements or beliefs.
Now on Day 11, it would be highly unusual for Gold to make a new DC high this late in a 5th Daily Cycle. The longest a (5th) Cycle has gone before a top is just 12 days, so based on this history we can assume that the high set on Day 7 at $1,798 will remain the 5th DC top, and therefore the Investor Cycle Top too. With this in mind, at the very minimum a Daily Cycle failure is expected (below $1,738), with an expectations of greater declines, likely below the $1,700 level.
The miners are following the script I’ve outlined for some weeks now. Since the weekend report, the 10 and 20 dma were lost on a closing basis and the lower trend-line was breached. The miners are closer to showing a Cycle failure than gold is, as a move below the Sep 26th lows would set the scene for a decent drop into an ICL.
I really do not have too much more to add regarding our gold framework, I believe I have presented over many weeks a very clear and consistent framework for a coming ICL. As members of this service you all need to plan and act accordingly, I have provided you with a road-map of how I plan to trade this coming period. In the event the framework is wrong and a new upside move above $1,800 takes hold, then a) We still have a decent positions to profit from b) I will likely initiate new trades very quickly above $1,800.
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