Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Irish PM Dissolves Government; Spanish Banks Face Debt Challenge; Greece May "Shut-Down"; Meaning of "Guarantee"; Should Ireland Ditch the Euro?
Here are a few of highlights: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced he would step down once a series of fiscal packages and budgets were in place next month; Portugal Struggles to Meet Deficit Goal; High Frequency Economics Ltd. says Greece May ‘Shut Down’ on Cash Shortage.
After a look at a few articles I take a look at suggestions for Ireland to abandon the Euro, and a critical look at the meaning of "guarantee".
Irish Leader to Dissolve Government After Budget Passes
The New York Times reports, Irish Leader to Dissolve Government After Budget Passes. (more)
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
In Bailouts, Spain Will Be 'the Biggie': Strategist
At the weekend, euro zone financial ministers and Irish officials agreed on a bailout of under 100 billion euros ($137 billion) for Ireland, sending stocks in Europe and the euro higher, as investors breathed a sigh of relief.
But the next in line for European Union and International Monetary Fund money may be Portugal, and then Spain, analysts said.
"We're getting near the end-game in terms of Ireland, and that was a good bailout, and we did all the right things; but hot on the heels of Ireland we have Portugal and then Spain, and Spain will be the biggie," Meyer said.
She predicted that a Spanish bailout would likely cost up to 500 billion euros; but there is no "real mechanism" to deal with it, Meyer added. (more)
China raises reserve requirement ratio
The People's Bank of China raised the reserve requirement ratio for its banks by a half-percentage point on Friday in an attempt to control the flow of new money and combat inflation.
China's increase is the second such move in days. The central bank also increased the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points on Nov. 10.
But China's central bank didn't touch interest rates. There has been much speculation around the world about a possible rate hike by China, and that has some investors on edge.
The reserve ratio increases are one method China can use to keep its strong economy from overheating.
But China's tightening comes as the Federal Reserve plans for more quantitative easing. The Fed plans to inject money into the economy by buying $600 billion in long-term Treasuries over the next eight months.
The Fed's plan has been attacked by many politicians and economists as a program that effectively undermines the value of the dollar. At the same time, U.S. officials have also been critical of China for keeping its own currency, the yuan, artificially low.
4 Stocks Poised to Benefit as Investors Pile Into the Market
Here's a fairly simple investment premise: if the stock market rises +10% or 15% in the next six months, one sector will rise +30% or even +50%. That's because a rising stock market tends to bring out increased interest from individual investors. And they bring lots more business to online brokers. Indeed, I just wrote how individual investor sentiment is now at its highest level in nearly four years, and these folks are getting bullish simply because the market has been on the rebound since late August.Need more proof? The major online brokers just reported an impressive sequential spike in trading volume, as measured by Daily Average Revenue Trading (DART). E*Trade (Nasdaq: EFTC) and TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD) just saw +14% to +15% sequential spikes in October, while Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR) and TradeStation (Nasdaq: TRAD) saw mid single-digit sequential increases. (more)
Lear Capital: Could An Ounce Of Gold Be Worth Trillions One Day?
In a really bizarre moment in history, a single American dollar was actually worth 4.2 trillion German marks.
It really happened. To fund its mega-expensive World War I effort, Germany severed the tie between its mark and gold -- something that's always happened, sooner or later, with government-generated currency.
Today there are no gold-backed currencies in the world.
After 1914 in Germany, the mark became just another fancy piece of worthless paper. No longer tied to gold, there were no longer any limitations on how many marks could be printed. But no worries, either -- the patriotic German populace somehow believed everything would work out fine as long as Germany won the war. Because the winners of wars, everybody knew, always dictated the terms of surrender, including -- and especially -- the economic terms.
The trouble was:
GERMANY LOST THE WAR
By the end of the war in 1918, Germany was a real mess. The Treaty of Versailles imposed steep war reparations, and that did nothing to strengthen a German Reichmark no longer backed by gold or anything else for that matter. (more)
Silver Sales to Jump as Demand Gains, Perth Mint Says
Silver-coin sales will climb as investors seek to protect their wealth from weakening currencies, according to the Perth Mint, producer of about 6 percent of the world’s gold bullion.
“There seems to be more upside with silver than gold right now,” said Ron Currie, sales and marketing director. The mint, founded in 1899, also wants to sell more gold to China even as it scales back production rates from the peak levels seen last year after the 2008 financial crisis, Currie said.
The mint’s outlook adds to signs that global demand for silver, which trades for about 50 times less than gold per ounce, will increase. The Royal Canadian Mint said last week that silver-coin sales will jump more than 50 percent this year. The Perth Mint may match that gain, Currie said in an interview.
Some customers have moved gold holdings into silver, Currie said on Nov. 19. There are no fundamentals to the silver market “but people are buying it,” he said from the mint, which is controlled by the Western Australian government. (more)