I've been scratching my head a bit on this one. It ran from $8 a share in 2013 to a 2014 high above $17. It has since
pulled back to ~$12.50, a 52-week low.
But the thing is, the prospects look great for Alcoa. The
company has been transitioning from a bulk aluminum producer
to a value-added producer of finished products. A couple key
acquisitions in the aerospace sector have made it a major supplier for
Boeing. And Boeing
is going great guns with its new line of planes.
Alcoa is also a critical supplier for Ford's new
aluminum-bodied trucks. All indications are that this truck is being
very well received. Other car companies will follow Ford's success, as
adding more aluminum lowers overall weight and improves performance and
gas
mileage.
Alcoa has beaten earnings expectations in each of the last
four quarters, yet analysts still will not raise forward
estimates. With a forward P/E of 10 and a high probability that it will
continue to beat earnings expectations, Alcoa should trade between $18
and $20
by the end of the year.
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