Wednesday, April 8, 2015

The Technical Outlook for Oil. Part 1


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Commodities normally go through a multi-year phase of strength and performance against the benchmark S&P 500 and then an approximate equal period of time of underperformance to the U.S. index.
Each stage of this Commodity/Stock cycle, lasts on average about 18 years. This has been the pattern for over 100 years.
For example, in chart 1, from 1980 to 2000, the S&P 500 outperformed the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). From 2000 to 2012, the CRB outperformed the S&P 500. And from 2012 to the present, the U.S. index is again, outperformed the CRB. (more)

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