Yields on long-term Treasuries have fallen to very low levels.
Partially as a result, we do not expect funds that invest in such debt
to produce exceptional total returns again over the next 12 months.
Other types of investment-grade US bonds, including municipals and
corporates, yield only slightly more than Treasuries, or even less.
Their yields, too, are much lower than they were a year ago.
The yields of high-yield US corporate bonds are moderately more appealing. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) recently had a 30-day SEC yield of 5.6%.
While not very high on an absolute basis, that’s not too skimpy
relative to a yield of less than 2% on a 10-Year Treasury bond. Unless
the US economy falls off a cliff, we expect high-yield bond funds to
produce total returns in-line with their interest payouts in 2015, so,
5% or 6%. (more)
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