Stock Market Turning Points

gold-eagle.com / Andre Gratian / December 14, 2014
Current position of the market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market
Intermediate trend – A correction of currently indeterminate time frame has started.  There is a good chance, however, that it will be more than a short-term correction.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Market Overview

For the week, SPX lost 77 points and DJIA a little over 700.  Technical warnings had been accumulating for several weeks that a correction was due and, in the last couple of letters, I suggested that it could be imminent.  Indeed it was!  Now we must shift our focus onto how much longer and deeper this correction is likely to be.  The bulls will be happy to hear that we are nearing a projection level at the same time that some positive divergence is showing in some indicators.  This has always been a good recipe for a re-bound and I would expect it to start early next week.  If this takes place, we will then try to estimate how much of a rebound it is likely to be.  Let’s check on the indicators.
Momentum:  The weekly MACD has turned down after showing some long-term negative divergence, but it remains strongly positive and, in spite of the decline, it has not yet made a bearish cross.   The daily MACD has made a bearish cross but did so only after making a new high, hence no negative divergence.  It also remains positive.
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