Years ago, 16 to be exact I was reading a book by John Murphy (the
god father of technical analysis). And I read something that has always
stuck in my mind. He said that the price of bonds typically lead trend
reversals in the stock market.
Taking a look at the chart below,
you will notice that both the price of bonds and the price of gold have
started to show signs of strength even though the US stock market
continues to rise. This is telling us that the big money players are
slowly rotating their money out of stocks. This is exactly what the
intraday charts of the indexes and volume have shown us in the last
couple months (distribution selling) also. Smart Investors are starting
to rotate their money into the safer havens like bonds, gold and silver.
The treasury bonds market is one of
the longest running bull markets in history. I do not recall any other
asset class to have sustained a bull market for over 33 years. The
charts below shows this massive rally and also the new short term rally
which will last for several months. (more)
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