Thursday, May 29, 2014

Bonds Lead, But Gold & Silver Will Follow

Years ago, 16 to be exact I was reading a book by John Murphy (the god father of technical analysis). And I read something that has always stuck in my mind. He said that the price of bonds typically lead trend reversals in the stock market.
Taking a look at the chart below, you will notice that both the price of bonds and the price of gold have started to show signs of strength even though the US stock market continues to rise. This is telling us that the big money players are slowly rotating their money out of stocks. This is exactly what the intraday charts of the indexes and volume have shown us in the last couple months (distribution selling) also. Smart Investors are starting to rotate their money into the safer havens like bonds, gold and silver.
gold stage
The treasury bonds market is one of the longest running bull markets in history. I do not recall any other asset class to have sustained a bull market for over 33 years.  The charts below shows this massive rally and also the new short term rally which will last for several months.  (more)
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