As we enter 2014 this is definitely one of the big things on my
radar. From where I’m sitting, it just seems that everyone is convinced
that rates are going higher. And maybe they are. But when everyone is
this sure of something, I really enjoy taking a closer look at the other
side.
Today we’re looking at 10-year yields. I don’t want to get into a
whole philosophical conversation about QE or Bernanke or Yellen. I can’t
worry about any of that stuff. In my opinion, we need to look at how
the market feels about all of that. You see, a lot of people say a lot
of things; there’s a ton of noise out there, but price is the only truth
that I feel comfortable enough to trust.
Rates are at a very critical level right now. Take a look at the sentiment data, I’ve been talking about it here over the last month. The consensus view is that rates rise. That makes me wonder what would happen if they don’t….(more)
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