Friday, January 24, 2014

Should this Trendline in the Dow Matter?

A funny thing happened at the end of last year. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied through the holidays, some really long-term trendlines started coming into play. The strength we’ve seen in US Stocks is undeniable. So that’s where the question stems from: Should we care about this trendline in the Dow? Or ignore it?
Today we’re looking at a monthly bar chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. By connecting the peaks from the January 2000 highs and October 2007 highs, you can extend that trendline to where we peaked on December 31st:
1-21-13 DJIA
So should we care? Is that reason enough to sell? Or even to sell short? Do we wait for the 2009 uptrend line to break in order to get more pessimistic?
I don’t have a clear answer to this. So I look at other averages like the Nasdaq100 and Russell2000 and they’re making new all-time highs. So what’s up with the Dow? For the most part, these guys all trade together, and any short-term divergences usually even themselves out over time. So who’s right? Nasdaq and Russell or papa Dow?
Do you guys use trendlines to connect peaks in uptrends, not just the troughs?1-21-13 trendline connecting peaksPersonally, I do use trendlines to connect peaks in uptrends. And I take them more seriously than connecting troughs in downtrends. That can be a death sentence depending on the name (i.e $BSC $LEH etc). If something is crashing that bad, you are taking serious overnight gap risk, and that’s too much for me. Peaks in uptrends are a different story.
So me? Yes I think this trendline matters.
Do you?
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