A funny thing happened at the end of last year. As the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rallied through the holidays, some really long-term
trendlines started coming into play. The strength we’ve seen in US
Stocks is undeniable. So that’s where the question stems from: Should we
care about this trendline in the Dow? Or ignore it?
Today we’re looking at a monthly bar chart of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. By connecting the peaks from the January 2000 highs
and October 2007 highs, you can extend that trendline to where we peaked
on December 31st:
So should we care? Is that reason enough to sell? Or even to sell
short? Do we wait for the 2009 uptrend line to break in order to get
more pessimistic?
I don’t have a clear answer to this. So I look at other averages like the Nasdaq100 and Russell2000 and they’re
making new all-time highs. So what’s up with the Dow? For the most
part, these guys all trade together, and any short-term divergences
usually even themselves out over time. So who’s right? Nasdaq and
Russell or papa Dow?
Do you guys use trendlines to connect peaks in uptrends, not just the troughs?Personally,
I do use trendlines to connect peaks in uptrends. And I take them more
seriously than connecting troughs in downtrends. That can be a death
sentence depending on the name (i.e $BSC $LEH
etc). If something is crashing that bad, you are taking serious
overnight gap risk, and that’s too much for me. Peaks in uptrends are a
different story.
So me? Yes I think this trendline matters.
Do you?
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