Friday, January 3, 2014

My 2014 “Predictions”

Let me just start out by saying that year-end predictions don’t mean a thing. The big firms give their year-end targets, fund managers talk their book, the blogosphere weighs in, and anyone with a twitter handle has an opinion. But if the data changes, what are you going to do, stick with your predictions and lose money? No, if things change, you make adjustments. There should be a worst case scenario exit before initiating any position, at any point in the year, not just on December 31st. So what does a prediction even mean anyway? To me, it’s what I see right now heading into January. And that’s it.
So now that we’re clear, here are a few things that I’m expecting as I see things right now:
  • Crude Oil prices double in Gold terms. $CL_F/$GC_F currently at 0.08 – goes to 0.15+.
  • Interest rates see 2% before 4% (10-year).
  • Corn Rallies 30%.
  • Blackberry doubles in Price.
  • And Lebron ends the regular season shooting 50% better from the field than Carmelo Anthony
Let’s take each one by one.  (more)

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