We hear about stock market cycles all the time.
We can look at short-term stuff like the annual seasonal cycle
for U.S. stocks. For example, we are currently in the best three-month
period of the year: November – January. We are also towards the
beginning of the best six-month period of the year: November – May.
We can break it down even further and talk about the Santa
Claus rally that typically comes late in December. But today, I want to
focus on some of the longer term trends that seem to be coming together
in a nice way.
The first one is the Presidential Cycle that represents the
standard four-year presidential term. The second one is the Decennial
Cycle that tracks stock market behavior for the 10 years of each decade.
And the third one is the longer-term Secular Bull and Bear Market
cycles. (more)
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