The lagging Dow Industrials tried to catch up with the S&P 500 last
week and this month's analysis of the most oversold Dow stocks reveals some new
opportunities in these high-yield, big cap stocks, says MoneyShow's Tom
Aspray.
The relentless nature of the stock market's rally in 2013 has made several
long-term bulls nervous about the near term outlook, even though they remain
bullish long-term. The gains of the past two months have been contrary to the
historical pattern which has many wondering about how stocks may do this month.
My analysis, as discussed in the Week
Ahead column, suggests that November may be a choppy month, but the breakout
in the weekly NYSE A/D line does indicate that stock prices will be higher by
the end of the year. There are some early signs that investors are rotating to
more defensive stocks, which makes this month's scan of overbought/oversold Dow
stocks particularly interesting.
I use Starc
band analysis to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When a market
or equity is close to its upper monthly Starc band (Starc+), it is a high-risk
time to buy and considered overbought. Conversely, when a stock is close to the
lower monthly Starc band (Starc-), it is a lower risk time to buy and is
considered oversold.
Once the list is obtained, I then look at the monthly, weekly, and daily
analysis of each stock to find new opportunities. All of the most oversold Dow
stocks have weak monthly relative performance patterns including
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
which is at the top of this month's most oversold list. It is just 10.2% above
its monthly starc- band and is down over 6% this year. (more)
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