Stocks moved up the fourth week in a row and have delivered a large
gain in the first 10 months of the year. For now, there is no reason to
expect a reversal in the trend.
Stocks Continue Setting New Highs
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) added another 0.15% last week and is now up 25.55% for the year, including dividends.
To
put this performance into perspective, we can review data for the
S&P 500 index going back to 1928. This year's performance would be
the 22nd best year out of 86. After such a strong performance, many
investors expect a decline, and the question becomes, "How bad will the
decline be?"
In the past, large gains have been followed by losing
years 43% of the time. Overall, 28% of the 86 years have closed down,
so there is a slight bearish bias for 2014. (more)
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