Something very strange is going on with crude when viewing the commitment of traders activity of hedgers vs speculators. Usually these two groups move opposite each other, but since the beginning of summer they’ve been moving upwards in sync. This never happens when viewing commodity charts.
Recently I felt we would retest the $99-$100 level and that is happening right now. There is an outside chance we go down to the $96-97 and touches the top of the trendline (2nd chart below) but I would say those odds are around 20%.
9yr expanded chart of Crude - this will really give a good idea of how these 2 groups are nearly inverse each other.
The above chart is from Spreadcharts, which offers a variety of charting tools such as: Commodity futures & spreads, Seasonality analysis, Volume & OI comparison, Commitment of Traders and Long-term historical data. To learn more click here.
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