A
slew of positive economic data in the last few days has led many market
participants to believe that the Fed will start tapering this month. On
the other hand, some analysts still think that there are a number of
factors that support the case for continuation in QE at current levels.
While no one can actually predict whether they will or they will not
decide on tapering in the upcoming meeting, it appears that the market
has already priced in some tapering—about $10 to $15 billion cut in the
$85 billion monthly purchases. The actual timing is somewhat irrelevant
now—it may start in September, December or early next year. (Read: 3 Cyclical ETFs for an Improving Economy)
In anticipation of tapering, interest rates have moved up
significantly, the 10-year Treasury note yield touched 3% yesterday—the
highest since July 2011 and a sharp move from 1.6% seen earlier this
year. Rising rates have resulted in increasing losses for bonds. (more)
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