I think now is probably a good time to bring up the Dow Jones
Transportation Average running up into its May highs. These fresh
closing highs in trannies got all the Dow Theorists
pumped up last week as they finally confirmed the new highs that the
Industrials had already been making. But what you don’t hear much these
days is the big underperformance for Transports lately. The relative
strength the group had been showing this year peaked all the way back in
March, believe it or not.
But why am I really worried up here? Well, it just bothers me when
new highs are made that can’t hold for more than a day or two,
especially when they’re all-time highs, as was the case in Transports. Here is the daily bar chart showing what just happened:
Notice the bearish divergence that has been developing throughout the
year as prices have rallied; the relative strength index has not
confirmed. But more problamatic might be the weekly chart. Look at the
same higher highs, but more bearish divergences in RSI: (more)
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