CNBC.com
Expectations of an end to ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy are likely to set in during the second-half of 2013, triggering a bull run in the dollar that could last for five years, says independent economist Andy Xie. And this, he argues, could lead to a “crisis” in emerging markets as hot money inflows unwind.
The U.S. economy has begun to show signs of life again – with factory activity touching a nine-month high in January – prompting talks about an end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program.
Xie forecasts the dollar index – which measures the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies – will rise to 100 in the next three years, a 25 percent rise from current levels around 80 on relative strength in the world’s largest economy.
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