Any college football fan knows that if your team is bound to lose
just one game during the season, it is far better for that loss to be at
the beginning of the season rather than the end. The chances of making
it to a top-tier bowl game are far better if the loss is a distant
memory in the minds of voters.
Indeed, a study by two professors at the College of Charleston
confirmed that college football coaches tend to rank their most recent
opponents -- and surprisingly, the most recent opponents of their alma
mater -- far higher than other schools.
Even more telling, in presidential elections, the movement of the
stock market in the two months leading up to election day has been able
to predict with 90% accuracy
whether the incumbent party would win or lose. And this amazingly high
correlation completely ignores the movements of the market during the
first 45 months of a president's tenure.
What exactly is going on here? (more)
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