The big stories of
today’s futures markets are the Euro and Swiss Franc currencies along
with soybean futures. Fundamentally, we identify the following news
items that are driving today’s markets: China relief (soft vs. hard
landing scenario), above expectations industrial production data in US,
and the continuing fiscal cliff uncertainty.
After a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” rally
preceding the FOMC rate and policy announcement this week, the US stock
futures have sold off quite a bit since the policy statement. DEC12
emini SP futures are back below our key pivot level of 1430. Our next
key pivot level for this market is 1380. Positive US economic data seems
to be continuing to hold this market up, while the fiscal cliff concern
seems to be capping any bullish bursts of buying.
Precious metals,
a market that seems to captivate and excite everyone, are fairly quiet
today, with gold staying below $1700 and silver trading at almost
unchanged levels from yesterday’s close. Interestingly palladium is up
almost 1.5%.
One of the biggest movers in the commodities complex is the soybean futures contract.
JAN13 soybeans are trading up 18 cents today, hitting $14.97 this
morning. This is around 1 dollar above its levels hit to the downside
just one month ago. We believe this market could start to consolidate in
the low $15′s. Our next upside target is $15.80.
The Euro futures are
up around 54 ticks today, with the DEC12 contract hitting a high of
131.42. This market is at the top of its recent range, and is likely
rallying as an effect of US dollar selling from the enhanced QE
policies. We focus on the Swiss Franc today. The Swiss Franc has
broken above its recent top of the range level of 1.08. This market has
been consolidating since November. Our next major resistance level is
1.11. We view the short term for the Swiss Franc as very bullish.
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