Last summer I told traders to watch the oil cycle as the CRB was working its way down into a final three year cycle low. At the time I was confident that the entire commodity complex was just waiting for the oil cycle to bottom. Once it did, the rest of the commodity complex launched out of that bottom like a rocket.
Remember at the time virtually every
analyst was predicting the end of the commodity bull market. I knew that
was baloney. All that was happening was a completely normal decline
into a major three year cycle low.
I also correctly predicted that the bottom in the CRB would mark the three year cycle top in the dollar.
As expected the dollar made a
halfhearted attempt to regain the 200 day moving average before rolling
over in anticipation of QE4. At this point all we are waiting for is a
move below the last daily cycle low at 79.56 to confirm the intermediate
cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner (left
translated cycles are an indication of a cycle that is in decline and
making lower lows and lower highs). (more)