Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Where Is Support For Gold?

Gold’s sell-off on high volume on Friday was discouraging for gold bulls (me!).  Especially because we got stopped out of some positions in Global Resource Hunter.  On the bright side, we’re grabbing gains with both hands in Red-Hot Global Resources today, and grabbing gains always makes you feel better.  But now like many gold bulls, I’m asking myself how low gold could go. How long do I wait before I buy again.
Let me show you a chart. First, let me tell you …
  • There are many ways to draw a chart of gold at this point
  • The old saying “every sunken ship has a chart” has never been more true than it is now.
  • Fear and panic over US election uncertainty may be trumping generally bullish fundamentals in the emerging markets.
That said, here’s a chart …
gold chart 110512
This is a variation of a chart that Walter Murphy posted on Stockscharts.com.  I have some indicators I watch that he doesn’t think are as important, and visa versa.  Mainly, I find Fibonacci retracement levels useful,  as well as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages.
Anyway, you can see the high volume sell-off. Right below that is the 200-day moving average, which lines up with the 50% retracement of gold’s big move since June.
Below that is the 61.8% retracement at 1,631.  And that lines up with a level of strong price support that starts around 1,645 (that pink rectangle I added to the chart).
Gold is not oversold yet.  It could become oversold very soon. The last time gold was oversold this year was a very good time to buy the metal. Good luck and good trades.

1 comment:

  1. I enjoyed your post. thank you for sharing your thoughts and time........

    ReplyDelete