Technical charts are great at explaining the past action of prices. It is more speculative to try to spot these patterns repeating. Yet one very accurate predictor of price advances in the charts in the past has been the so-called Golden Cross where the 50-day moving average price for gold crosses over the 200-day moving average.
Silver prices track gold with a bias to outperformance so the Golden Cross or Blue Cross for silver is a great indicator for price surges in the most volatile of metals too. Bullion investor Peter Degraaf has highlighted the price increases that have followed this indicator since 2005.
Blue Cross price increases
For 2005-6 he noted a 100 per cent increase after the Blue Cross. For November 2007 it was 45 per cent. And for 2009 to April 2012 the multiplier was 250 per cent. Here’s what the chart looks like now:
Just to match the last upswing would give us $130-an-ounce silver in the next major market move.
Would it not be typical of of the capricious silver market that while most attention is now currently focused on the potential downside, silver is actually about to give us another huge upward price shift?
At the fundamental level everything is also in place with QE3 money printing at $40 billion a month and counting. Perhaps next week President Obama will be re-elected and some of the US political uncertainty begin to clear, and then you could imagine all financial markets getting a relief rally, including precious metals.
We may have already seen the low for silver’s trading range and now be staring at a much larger upside than anybody is currently contemplating.
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