Gold Stocks Are in an Absolute Sweet Spot

Three weeks ago I wrote that the short-term outlook in precious metals was bullish. Quoting the conclusion:

The bottom line is this sector is very close to a breakout which would likely confirm the May bottom. The price action has started to improve and the sector has not been deterred by the aforementioned bad news which, in normal conditions would have caused a sell-off. In the meantime, the public has been bearish the entire year and the dumb money has started to exit the market. It is this combination of factors that lead us to a firm bullish posture over the rest of the summer.

In terms of weekly closing prices, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) closed last week at a four-month high, while Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) closed last week at a three-month high. Silver closed at a four-month high while gold closed at a five-month high. From that it would seem that these markets are overbought.

However, a quick study of the long-term charts, sentiment, and valuations confirms that we are in an absolute sweet spot. Markets have bottomed, a new cyclical bull has begun, and there is substantial room to move over the coming months and year.

We begin with a chart of the bull market in the HUI and we highlight the cyclical bear markets. The 2011-2012 bear lasted about as long as the 2004-2005 bear but was a bit deeper (42% versus 36%). The fact that this bear corrected the recovery from the 2008 crash could be why various valuation and sentiment indicators are at such compelling levels (as annotated in the chart).



Next we chart my firm's proprietary silver index, which is comprised of 10 “growth oriented producers.” (The ETF SIL only has a few years of history). This index corrected 60% in 2004, 90% in 2007-2008 and 50% from 2011-2012. The current bear market was the almost the longest (short of the 2007-2008 bear) but the smallest with only a 50% correction. Yes, to say only 50% is ironic but in looking at the chart one can see that the correction appears to be quite routine. This chart has potential to be a cup and handle pattern which could have massive bullish implications for the next few years. (more)